Creighton vs. Villanova Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 3, 2021

Joe Williams
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Creighton Blue Jays (17-6, 13-5 Big East) travel to meet the Villanova Wildcats (15-4, 10-3) in a battle between the top two teams in the conference. The potential Big East Conference Final preview will be broadcast on FS1.

BETTING RESOURCES

• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Conference: Big East
• Venue: Finneran Pavilion
• Location: Villanova, Pennsylvania
• Date: Wednesday, March 3, 2021
• Time: 8:30 p.m. (ET)
• TV: FS1
• Live Stream: Follow all of your College Hoops Action on ESPN+

Creighton-Villanova Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Villanova -4
• Money-Line: Villanova -190, Creighton +160
• Total: 147

Odds Subject to Change

Villanova heads into this home meeting with Creighton in a rather foul mood after getting tripped up in Indianapolis by Butler last time out on Sunday, 73-61. It's not how the Wildcats wanted to end their week. They have actually had trouble winning on the road lately, going 0-3 SU/ATS in the previous three on the road, but they have no such trouble at home.

The Wildcats have enjoyed the home cooking, going a perfect 8-0 SU/4-3-1 ATS in their eight games on the home floor.

Villanova will also enter this one with revenge on its mind after falling in Omaha against the Blue Jays by an 86-70 count, failing miserably as two-point favorites while the OVER (144) easily cashed at the window.

The bad taste of that loss to the Blue Jays can be washed away with a victory in Philadelphia on Wednesday night.

The Villanova Wildcats return home after dropping a road game as the favorite against the Butler Bulldogs. (AP)

Betting Analysis – Creighton Bluejays

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 17-6
• ATS: 10-13
• SU - Home: 10-3
• SU - Away: 7-3
• O/U: 11-11-1

The Blue Jays are also coming off a disappointing loss on the road at Xavier on Saturday, falling 77-69 as four-point favorites as the total was a PUSH (146) at most shops. Unlikely Villanova, though, Creighton has had some success on the road lately. They're 4-1 SU/2-3 ATS across the past five away from home.

The last time they faced Villanova on Feb. 13, just three games ago, they were able to throw in 86 points, which was actually their most since a 97-79 win at home over St. John's back on Jan. 9. The Blue Jays have had some difficulty scoring the basketball on the road lately, going for 71 or fewer points in four straight away games, and six of their past seven road games overall.

Creighton has covered in just two of the past eight games overall, and two of the past eight road games, too. They're also 1-4 ATS in the previous five on the road against teams with a winning overall mark.

The Blue Jays have been pretty efficient on offense overall, however. They rank 40th in points per game at 78.6, and they're 27th in field-goal percentage at 48.4. They're also a decent three-point shooting team, hitting at a 36.7 percent clip. However, Creighton really struggles at the stripe, hitting just 65.7 of their free throws.

Betting Analysis – Villanova Wildcats

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 15-4
• ATS: 10-8-1
• SU - Home: 8-1
• SU - Away: 7-3
• O/U: 11-8

Villanova has been a good offensive club this season, particularly at home. They're posting 77.2 PPG to rank 57th overall, and they're 76th in the nation hitting three-pointers at a 36.1 percent clip. The Wildcats are a very, very good free-throw shooting team, too, going 78.2 percent from the stripe to rank 15th overall.

Defensively, the Wildcats have been so-so. At times they're very good, and other times they have had their issues. They're 109th with 67.9 points per game allowed, and they rank just 271st with opponents hitting from the field at a 45.5 percent clip. 'Nova will eventually see their three-point defense as their undoing, especially if they match up with a hot team in the NCAA Tournament. They're allowing foes to hit 35.9 percent from behind the arc, or 295th in the land.

Villanova is very good at home, especially for bettors. The Wildcats are 3-1-1 ATS in the past five in Philly, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven against winning teams, too.

As far as the totals are concerned, 'Nova has hit the OVER in six of its past seven at home, and the OVER is 9-4 across their past 13 games overall.

Inside the Stats – Creighton Bluejays

• PS/G: 78.6 (40th)
• PA/G: 68.8 (134th)
• Off Rtg: 111 (35th)
• Def Rtg: 97.1 (106th)

Inside the Stats – Villanova Wildcats

• PS/G: 77.2 (57th)
• PA/G: 67.9 (109th)
• Off Rtg: 115.1 (9th)
• Def Rtg: 101.3 (210th)

Key Players to Watch

• CRE - Marcus Zegarwoski (14.9 PPG, 4.6 APG)
• CRE - Denzel Mahoney (13.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
• NOVA - Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (15.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG)
• NOVA - Collin Gillespie (14.4 PPG, 4.7 APG)

Creighton-Villanova Predictions

While a lot of the trends for these two teams seem to be pointing squarely in the favor of Villanova and its potential bettors, remember that the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings in this series, and the road team has hit in four of the past five battles.Trends are made to be broken, however, and Villanova has been good at home against the number, while Creighton has struggled outside of the great state of Nebraska. Look for the Wildcats to even the score, with perhaps a rubber match coming in a couple of weeks in the conference tourney.

• Score Prediction: Villanova 81 Creighton 74
• Best Bets: OVER 147

WHERE TO BET CREIGHTON-VILLANOVA

• Pennsylvania
• West Virginia
• Iowa
• Virginia
• New Hampshire
• Tennessee
• Michigan
• Indiana
• Illinois
• Tennessee
• Nevada
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