Michigan State vs. Michigan Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 4, 2021

Joe Williams
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Michigan Wolverines (18-2, 13-2 Big Ten) look to rebound after a woeful performance last time out when they host the rival Michigan State Spartans (14-10, 8-10) at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Mich. on Thursday. The game begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

BETTING RESOURCES

• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Conference: Big Ten
• Venue: Crisler Center
• Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
• Date: Thursday, March 4, 2021
• Time: 7:00 p.m. (ET)
• TV: ESPN
• Live Stream: Follow all of your College Hoops Action on ESPN+

Michigan State-Michigan Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Michigan -13
• Money-Line: Michigan -1000, Michigan State +650
• Total: 138.5

Odds Subject to Change

Michigan suffered a stunning loss at home against Illinois on Tuesday night in a Top 5 battle in Ann Arbor. It wasn't stunning so much that they lost, but how they lost. The Fighting Illini ran them out of the building, routing the Wolverines 76-53 as 8.5-point underdogs.

Michigan was never covering at any point during the game, and they shot just 35 percent (17-of-49), while hitting just 2-of-7 from behind the three-point line. Illinois, on the other hand, shot lights out, knocking down 47 percent (30-of-64) of its shots, while nailing six triples and 10-of-14 (71 percent) from the three-throw stripe. And the Wolverines lost to the Illini, who were without National Player of the Year candidate Ayo Dosunmu.

Michigan State has been coming on lately, winning four of the past five games while also going 4-1 ATS during the span. They have racked up signature wins against Illinois and Ohio State, while sweeping games against Indiana, getting themselves back on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. They still have a ton of work to do, but the Spartans could really help themselves with an upset of their rivals.

The Michigan Wolverines are coming off their first loss at home on Tuesday night, beaten by 23 points. (AP)

Betting Analysis – Michigan State Spartans

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 14-10
• ATS: 8-16
• SU - Home: 11-3
• SU - Away: 3-7
• O/U: 10-14

Sparty won 64-58 at Breslin Center in East Lansing over Indiana, covering a 3.5-point number as the UNDER (135) connected. That's been the rule lately, as they're 4-1 ATS in the past five, with the UNDER hitting in each of the past three outings.

This will be the first of a two-game home-and-home set with the Wolverines, as they also face Michigan on Sunday at 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

While Michigan State heads into this one on a roll, they haven't really stacked covers lately. After straight-up victories, they're just 3-8 ATS in the past 11. And they're 2-7 ATS across the past nine on the road, while also going 2-7 ATS in the previous nine against teams with a winning home mark. Michigan certainly checks off that box.The Spartans have hit the UNDER in 10 of the past 14 games overall, with the UNDER 19-7-1 in their past 27 on the road against teams with a home winning percentage over .600. Michigan State has hit the OVER, though, in seven of the past eight against winning teams.

Betting Analysis – Michigan Wolverines

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 18-2
• ATS: 15-5
• SU - Home: 12-1
• SU - Away: 6-1
• O/U: 8-12

Michigan was crushed on its home floor by 23 points, and head coach Juwan Howard will likely have them more than prepared for this one. They won't sleepwalk through a second straight game. In their only previous loss at Minnesota, they were also dusted by 18 points on Jan. 16. The Wolverines responded three days late with an 87-63 whitewashing of Maryland as 11-point favorites on their home floor.

Prior to the Illini loss, the Wolverines had won seven in a row, while covering six of those outings. Sometimes it's good to get a wake-up call, and you can expect Michigan to respond favorably. Michigan is 4-0 ATS in their four games this season following a non-cover, and they easily won and covered in their only previous straight-up loss.

Michigan is averaging 77.6 PPG to rank 52nd in the country, and they're a really good shooting team. They are hitting 49.1 percent from the field to rank 20th, they're 12th on three-pointers at 38.8 percent, and they are hitting 77.1 percent from the free-throw line to rank 27th.

On defense, they have allowed just 65.8 PPG to rank 63rd. They are really good inside the arc, locking teams down, allowing just 38.8 percent shooting to the opposition, good for sixth, yet somehow they're 151st in three-pointer defense at 33.2 percent.

Inside the Stats – Michigan State Spartans

• PS/G: 70.3 (205th)
• PA/G: 71 (205th)
• Off Rtg: 101.2 (197th)
• Def Rtg: 102.2 (232nd)

Inside the Stats – Michigan Wolverines

• PS/G: 77.5 (52nd)
• PA/G: 65.8 (63rd)
• Off Rtg: 112.6 (16th)
• Def Rtg: 95.5 (71st)

Key Players to Watch

• MSU - Aaron Henry (15.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG)
• MSU - Joey Hauser (10 PPG, 6 RPG)
• MICH - Hunter Dickinson (14.4 PPG, 7.7 RPG)
• MICH - Isaiah Livers (14.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG)

Michigan State-Michigan Predictions

The Wolverines aren't going to get caught with their pants down again. Head coach Juwan Howard had them playing great basketball prior to the Illinois debacle, and there was talk of them not only being a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but perhaps the top overall national seed. It's funny how one rout and a couple of days can change things. Now, you'd think they're on the bubble like Michigan State, with people disparaging them.

A little disrespect should go a long way for Michigan in this one. They haven't had a lot of difficult times in a difficult year, and they should respond favorably. While the underdog is 5-2 ATS across the past seven meetings, the home side has covered each of the four meetings, too. The spread will be close, but the best bet is an OVER result.

• Score Prediction: Michigan 78, Michigan State 67
• Best Bets: OVER 138.5

WHERE TO BET MICHIGAN STATE-MICHIGAN

• Michigan
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