Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 4, 2021

Joe Williams
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (17-6, 10-6 Big 12) travel to meet the Baylor Bears (19-1, 11-1) at Ferrell Center in Waco, Tex. for a key Big 12 conference battle. The game will be televised at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

BETTING RESOURCES

• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Conference: Big 12
• Venue: Ferrell Center
• Location: Waco, Texas
• Date: Thursday, March 4, 2021
• Time: 7:00 p.m. (ET)
• TV: ESPN2
• Live Stream: Follow all of your College Hoops Action on ESPN+

Oklahoma State-Baylor Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Baylor -12
• Money-Line:TBD
• Total: 149.5

Odds Subject to Change

Oklahoma State is playing just about as well as anyone in the Big 12 right now. They registered a home-and-home win and cover sweep against rival Oklahoma on Feb. 27-March 1, winning outright as underdogs both times.

Overall, the Cowboys have won five in a row since a 78-66 loss at Kansas, and they have covered four in a row. They have had a flare for the dramatic lately, too, winning two of the past three in overtime, with four victories in OT just since Jan. 2, all within conference.

Like OK State, Baylor suffered its most recent loss to Kansas. The Bears fell 71-58 in Lawrence on Feb. 27, but rebounded with an impressive 94-89 overtime win at West Virginia on Tuesday as 3.5-point favorites. On its home floor, Baylor has been on fire, winning all nine of its games while going 5-4 ATS.

These teams met in Stillwater back on Jan. 23, and the Bears rolled to an 81-66 victory as 11.5-point favorites as the OVER (144) connected.

The Baylor Bears are coming off an overtime victory against the West Virginia Mountaineers, seemingly back on track. (AP)

Betting Analysis – Oklahoma State Cowboys

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 17-6
• ATS: 13-9-1
• SU - Home: 10-3
• SU - Away: 7-3
• O/U: 15-7-1

OK State will look to carry over the momentum from their home-and-home sweep over Oklahoma, heading down to Waco for another marquee game. The victories over the Sooners likely make them a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but a win over Baylor could really boost their resume and help out potential seeding.The Cowboys are about as hot as anyone in the league, winning five straight and covering four in a row. But the Bears are, no pun intended, a different animal. Baylor dropped them in Stillwater by 15, and the Cowboys are still 8-3 SU/7-4 ATS over the previous 11 outings overall.

Oklahoma State have covered four straight, and four of the past five against teams with a winning overall record. The Cowboys are 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine games on the road, while going 5-2 ATS in the past seven road outings against a team with a winning home mark.

As far as totals are concerned, it's all OVER all the time for OSU. The OVER is 4-0 in their past four road games, and 4-1 in the past five against teams with a winning overall record. The OVER is also 13-4 across the past 17 games overall.

Betting Analysis – Baylor Bears

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 19-1
• ATS: 14-6
• SU - Home: 11-0
• SU - Away: 8-1
• O/U: 11-9

Baylor has just one lone loss, the setback at Kansas on Feb. 27. The Bears opened the season 7-0 ATS, too, and 12-3 ATS across the first 15. However, the Bears have failed to cover three of the past four outings.

As a double-digit favor, the Bears have failed to cover each of the past two such situations, although they're 10-4 ATS in the past 14 as a favorite of 10 or more points this season. That includes the first meeting at Oklahoma State on Jan. 23, covering an 11.5-point number in an 81-66 win.

The Bears are 8-3 ATS in the past 11 against winning teams, but they're a dismal 0-4 ATS in the past four at home against teams with a winning road record.

Baylor is averaging 85.4 PPG to rank fourth in the nation, and they're hitting 49.6 percent from the field to check in 16th overall. They're also the No. 1 team in the country in terms of three-pointer percentage at 42.1, so it's no surprise the OVER is 7-1 across the past eight games.

Inside the Stats – Oklahoma State Cowboys

• PS/G: 76.6 (61st)
• PA/G: 71.6 (218th)
• Off Rtg: 102.7 (165th)
• Def Rtg: 96 (81st)

Inside the Stats – Baylor Bears

• PS/G: 85.4 (4th)
• PA/G: 65 (52nd)
• Off Rtg: 120.5 (2nd)
• Def Rtg: 91.7 (21st)

Key Players to Watch

• OKST - Cade Cunningham (19.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG)
• OKST - Kalib Boone (9.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG)
• BAY - Jared Butler (16.9 PPG, 5 APG)
• BAY - MaCio Teague (14.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG)

Oklahoma State-Baylor Predictions

Baylor picked themselves up and dusted themselves off after the loss at Kansas, re-establishing themselves as the team to beat in the Big 12 with that overtime win in a tough place at West Virginia. But unlike the first meeting, they face a red-hot Oklahoma State team burgeoning with confidence.

As such, the Cowboys are worth scooping up as a double-digit 'dog. Plus, the home side is just 3-12-2 ATS across the past 17 meetings in this series, too, so Oklahoma State looks awfully attractive catching six buckets in this one.

• Score Prediction: Baylor 83 Oklahoma State 74
• Best Bets: Oklahoma State +12
• Best Bets: OVER 149.5

WHERE TO BET OKLAHOMA STATE-BAYLOR

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