San Diego State Aztecs vs. Michigan Wolverines Picks, Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Dec. 4, 2021

Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The San Diego State Aztecs (5-2) travel to meet the Michigan Wolverines (4-3) at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Mich. on Saturday. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on CBS.

Score Prediction

Michigan 65, San Diego State 58

Best Bets

Over 126.5 DraftKings

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Michigan Wolverines Predictions

The Wolverines were a preseason Top 10 team, and expectations were sky-high following a run to the Elite Eight last season. But Michigan has had some difficulty jelling during the early going, and it has alternated losses and wins across the past six games. This team was stunned 67-65 at home against Seton Hall on Nov. 16, falling as an eight-point favorite. They picked up a nice win at UNLV on Nov. 20, but then the Wolverines were paddled 80-62 by an emerging Arizona side, again losing outright as a favorite. They looked like they were sleepwalking in a 65-54 win at Crisler against Tarleton, and then Michigan bottomed out with a 72-51 loss at North Carolina, losing as 2.5-point favorites.

The 51 points against the Tar Heels marked a season low, and it was the lowest performance since a 51-49 loss when they were shown the door by UCLA in last season's NCAA Tournament. It was also their lowest offensive production since a 58-43 loss at Louisville on Dec. 3, 2019.

San Diego State would like to catch Michigan napping. They enter with four victories in the past five games, including a 72-47 win last time out against Long Beach State as 19.5-point favorites. This team has two setbacks on the season, once against a ranked USC team on Nov. 26, falling 58-43 on a neutral court, while also losing 66-60 at BYU on Nov. 12.

Head coach Brian Dutcher's group with have to play without its third-leading scorer Lamont Butler, though. The win over Long Beach was costly, as Butler suffered a broken left wrist in that game and he is out indefinitely. Adam Seiko, who is making his way back from a quad injury, and Keith Dinwiddie Jr., will likely be tasked with more responsibilities in the wake of the Butler injury.

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Odds

• San Diego State +7.5 (-110)
• Michigan -7.5 (-110)
• Over 126.5 (-110)
• Under 126.5 (-110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Resources

• Matchup: Mountain West vs. Big 10
• Date: Saturday, December 4, 2021
• Venue: Crisler Center
• Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
• TV-Time: CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET

• Injury Report
• Wooden Award Odds
• Conference Futures Market
• Power Rankings

San Diego State Aztecs Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 5-2
• ATS: 3-4
• O/U: 1-6

The Aztecs covered a big number last time out, going for a 72-47 win over Long Beach State. Again, it was costly with the Butler injury. Dutcher made mention this week that his Aztecs team lacks offensive firepower, but he has been very happy with the team's defensive effort. UNDER bettors have been happy with that effort, too, as San Diego State is allowing just 57.9 PPG, ranking 24th in the nation, while holding the opposition to just 22.8% from behind the 3-point line, good for fifth in the land. That has translated into six UNDER results in seven games overall, too.

As mentioned, the Aztecs covered last time out. They haven't had back-to-back ATS victories all season. The last time San Diego State covered in consecutive outings was a 3-0 ATS run from Feb. 18-25, 2020.

This will be San Diego State's second true road game of the season, and the first one didn't go so hot in Provo. San Diego State was on the short end of a 66-60 score as three-point 'dogs as the UNDER connected.

F Nathan Mensah is looking to bounce back after going scoreless against the 49ers last time out. He has 7.9 rebounds per game to lead the team, but he is fourth in scoring at just 8.1 PPG. He'll need to pick up the pace, especially with Butler going down. G Matt Bradley is one of just two players averaging double digits, leading the team with 13.0 PPG to go along with 5.3 RPG and 2.0 APG.

Michigan Wolverines Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 4-3
• ATS: 2-5
• O/U: 2-5

Michigan has proved this season that sometimes talent isn't all it takes to win ball games. The Wolverines just haven't had a lot of cohesiveness in the early going, although it's likely to come. G Caleb Houstan is uber-talented, but he is still learning how to develop his game at the collegiate level. He has struggled during the early going, shooting just 32.8% from the field while turning it over frequently. He still has a respectable 8.7 PPG and 4.6 RPG. Big man Hunter Dicksinson, who leads with 7.7 RPG while posting 13.3 PPG, will be a handful for the Aztecs.

Like San Diego State, Michigan hasn't covered in consecutive games. In fact, Michigan hasn't covered much of anything. They're 2-5 ATS in the past seven games overall, and 0-3 ATS in the past three outings while hitting the UNDER in each of the past three, and five of the past six overall.

The Wolverines have not scored the basketball much, going for an un-elite-like 68.9 PPG, ranking 243rd in the nation. Michigan is shooting a solid 46.1% from the field, but just 29.4% from long range. That isn't likely to improve against San Diego State's turgid perimeter defense.

Michigan is 0-3 ATS across the past three, and the UNDER has hit in each of those outings. (AP)

Inside the Stats - San Diego State Aztecs

• Record: 5-2
• VI Ranking: 60
• PS/G: 63.9
• PA/G: 57.9
• ORtg: 31.6
• DRtg: 33.3

Inside the Stats - Michigan Wolverines

• Record: 4-3
• VI Ranking: 35
• PS/G: 68.9
• PA/G: 65.6
• ORtg: 36.0
• DRtg: 29.6

Key Players to Watch

• SDST: Matt Bradley - G (13.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.0 APG)
• SDST: Trey Pulliam - G (10.9 PPG, 3.6 APG, 2.7 RPG, 1.1 SPG)
• MICH: Eli Brooks - G (15.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.3 BPG)
• MICH: Hunter Dickinson - C (13.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.1 BPG)

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Conclusion

If you like video games, fast pace sports and a lot of points, do yourself a favor and don't tune into CBS. This is going to be a slow, methodical offense for San Diego State, and Michigan isn't much better. Instead of a hardwood surface, it's going to look like these teams are playing on sand.

To make matters worse for San Diego State's offense, Butler missing in action does not help. It's uncertain when he'll be back after hurting himself on a two-handed jam and fall against Long Beach State, but he will be missed at both ends of the floor. Could the Aztecs slow it down even more on offense now? Seiko is no given to play, and he could have some ill effects of his quad injury. Neither of these teams have a lot of scorers, but they are very good defensively. If either of these were to get out of the 60's, it would be shocking.

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Trends

• The Aztecs are 2-5 ATS in the past seven games overall.
• The Wolverines are 2-5 ATS in the past seven games overall.
• The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in the past five as a favorite.
• The UNDER is 6-1 in seven games overall for San Diego State.
• The UNDER is 5-1 in the past six games for Michigan.

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