Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Duke Blue Devils Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Arkansas Razorbacks (28-8) will take on the Duke Blue Devils (31-6) in the elite eight of the NCAA Tournament. Saturday’s tipoff is scheduled for 8:49 PM ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California and can be viewed on TBS.  

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Score Prediction

Duke 75, Arkansas 72 

Best Bet

Arkansas +4 (-110)

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ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS PREDICTIONS

Arkansas defeated Gonzaga 74-68 in the sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament and covered as 10-point underdogs. The Razorbacks shot 40.3 FG%, 28.0 3PT%, and lost the rebounding battle 45-42. They were excellent on defense allowing Gonzaga 37.5 FG%, 23.8 3PT%, and forcing 15 turnovers. Senior guard JD Notae filled up the stat sheet for Arkansas with 21 points, 6 rebounds, 6 steals, 3 steals, and 2 blocks. Going back to the SEC tournament the Razorbacks are 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last five games.  

Duke defeated Texas Tech 78-73 in the sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament and covered in a pick em game. The Blue Devils went into halftime down four, but were able to amp up their defense and win by nine points in the second half. Duke shot 51.9 FG%, 36.8 3PT%, and grabbed 29 rebounds. Free throws played a big role in this one as Duke shot 88.2% (15-17) from the free throw line while Texas Tech shot just 55.6% (5-9) from the charity strike. The Blue Devils are now 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last five matchups.  

This should be a great matchup to watch. The Blue Devils will need to have another solid offensive performance with the way that Arkansas’s defense has been playing thus far in the tournament. I expect this one to be back and forth throughout, but think Arkansas will cover with the points. I give Duke the slight edge in this one to win outright, but would not be surprised at all if the Razorbacks pull off the upset and head to the final four.  

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS BETTING ODDS

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ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Saturday, March 26, 2022
• Matchup: No. 4 vs. No. 2
• Region: West
• Venue: Chase Center
• Location: San Francisco, California
• TV-Time: TBS - 8:49 p.m. ET

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 28-8
• ATS: 21-14-1
• O/U: 21-15

Arkansas has been profitable on the season with an ATS record of 21-14-1. The Razorbacks have seen recent success when they are not the favorite, going 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing as the underdog. The total has gone over in 21 of Arkansas’s 36 games played including seven of their last 10.  

Arkansas’s offense is led by JD Notae who averages 18.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.7 APG, and 39.7 FG%. As a team the Razorbacks average 76.1 PPG, 43.4 FG%, 30.4 3PT%, 13.9 APG, and 38.2 RPG. Arkansas likes to run in transition when they can, but are also very good their set half-court offense. Expect multiple guys to get involved in this one as Arkansas currently has four players averaging 10 points or more per game. The Razorbacks will have a slight advantage in the experience department as they made the elite eight last year as well, losing to Baylor 81-72.  

The Razorbacks defense has been a problem for opponents all season, allowing teams 68.0 PPG, 40.9 FG%, 32.4 3PT%, while averaging 7.6 SPG, and 4.1 BPG. Turnovers were huge in their win over Gonzaga, forcing the Bulldogs to turn the ball over 15 times when they had only turned it over 14 times combined in their first two tournament games. This could play a factor in this one as well as the Blue Devils have averaged 11 turnovers per game throughout the tournament.  

DUKE BLUE DEVILS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 31-6
• ATS: 19-15-3
• O/U: 21-16

Duke has fared well ATS this season with a record of 19-15-3. The Blue Devils have struggled covering as of late, going 2-5 ATS in their last seven matchups. Following this trend, Duke is 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing as the favorite. The total has gone over in 21 of Duke’s 37 games played including eight of their last nine. The trend continues against SEC opponents, with the total going over in five of Dukes last six matchups against the Southeastern Conference.  

Duke’s offense is led by freshman forward Paolo Banchero who is coming off a 22 point, 4 rebound, and 4 assist performance against Texas Tech. As a team the Blue Devils average 80.2 PPG, 49.2 FG%, 37.0 3PT%, 16.8 APG, and 37.9 RPG. Duke will look to come out a little more explosive in the first half than they did against Texas Tech as the Blue Devils relied on shooting 70% from the field in the second half. Also, keep an eye on sophomore guard Jeremy Roach who has been a key factor in Duke’s past two wins with 15 points in each contest.  

The Blue Devils defense looks great at times, but has been inconsistent throughout the season. They area allowing opponents 67.4 PPG, 41.7 FG%, 31.9 3PT%, while averaging 6.4 SPG and 5.7 BPG. Duke will need to get back on defense against this Arkansas team that likes to push the ball. The Blue Devils will also need be box out because the Razorbacks have been crashing the glass thus far in the tournament.  

INSIDE THE STATS - ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS

• Record: 28-8
• PS/G: 76.1 (50th)
• PA/G: 68 (141st)

INSIDE THE STATS - DUKE BLUE DEVILS

• Record: 31-6
• PS/G: 80.2 (8th)
• PA/G: 67.4 (126th)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

• ARK: J.D. Notae - G (18.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg)
• ARK: Stanley Umude - G (11.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg)
• DUKE: Paolo Banchero - F (17.2 ppg, 7.8 rpg)
• DUKE: Wendell Moore - F (13.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.5 apg)

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS BETTING CONCLUSION

Coach K will look to make it to the final four in his final season as head coach while Arkansas is looking to redeem themselves after losing in the elite eight last year. I do not see either team running away with this one and think it will come down to the final possessions. I’ll take Arkansas and the points here. The Razorback's defense has been more than impressive lately and I think that continues in this one.  

MARCH MADNESS PICK RESOURCES

• Elite Eight Betting Picks
• Final Four Betting Picks

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS BETTING TRENDS

• Arkansas has allowed 73 points or less in 17 of its last 19 games when playing on a neutral court at night.
• Duke has won 12 of its last 13 games when playing on a neutral court.
• Duke has won the 1H in 31 of its last 39 games.
• Duke has seen 149 or more total points in seven of its last eight games when playing on a neutral court.