Creighton vs. San Diego State Picks, Predictions, Odds

Both the Creighton Bluejays and the San Diego State Aztecs made history on Friday night. Creighton advanced to the Elite Eight for the first time since 1941 with a win over the Princeton Tigers, while San Diego State is in the Elite Eight for the first time ever after knocking off overall No. 1 seed Alabama. Now, one of these schools will be making its first-ever trip to the Final Four. Creighton is a slight favorite over San Diego State in the South Regional Final.

The South Regional Final will pit the No. 6 Creighton Bluejays against the No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs. These teams will meet on Sunday, March 26, 2023, at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky with tip off slated for 2:20 p.m. ET on CBS.

Creighton Bluejays vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Prediction

While Creighton is a pretty balanced team with an offense nearly as good as its defense, San Diego State relies heavily on its defense to win games. The Aztecs have the fourth-best defense in the country according to Ken Pomeroy's numbers, but their offense is by far the worst of any team in the Elite Eight. San Diego State hasn't allowed more than 71 points in a game since January 31, and that's been the key to this team's success. That defensive ability will keep the game close, but Creighton will pull away in the end.

Best Bet: Creighton -1.5 (-110)
Score Prediction: Creighton 70, San Diego State 61

The Bluejays are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. (Getty)

Creighton Bluejays vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Odds

Creighton Bluejays vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, Mar. 26, 2023
TV-Time: CBS, 2:20 p.m. ET
Venue: KFC Yum! Center
Location: Louisville, Kentucky
Expert Picks

Creighton Bluejays vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Stats

Creighton Bluejays
SU: 24-12
ATS: 19-17
O/U: 17-18-1
PPG: 77.1
OPPG: 68.7

San Diego State Aztecs
SU: 30-6
ATS: 19-16
O/U: 14-21
PPG: 71.9
OPPG: 63.1

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 06/02/2023
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Creighton Bluejays Betting Analysis

There was a lot of buzz surrounding Creighton coming into the season. The Bluejays were ranked in the preseason top ten, and they won their first six games to start the campaign. However, they were dismissed by some after a six-game losing streak. They were only 9-8 at the halfway point of the season before they turned the corner and won eight straight games.

This is not a deep team, so the second game on weekends is a little tougher on Creighton. The Bluejays' five starters are all averaging 29+ MPG, and the only reserve player that is on the court for more than 10 MPG is TCU transfer Francisco Farabello. We have seen Farabello's role increase in recent weeks though as he is a solid defender.

Center Ryan Kalkbrenner is the leading scorer for Creighton with 15.9 PPG, and he is averaging 6.1 RPG. Kalkbrenner has made over 73% of his twos and is one of the nation's most efficient shooters. Baylor Scheierman is the leading rebounder with 12.8 PPG to go with 8.3 RPG, and he ranks second on the team with 3.3 APG. Trey Alexander is the perimeter player to watch as he is averaging 13.7 PPG while making 42.3% of his threes, and Ryan Nembhard is Creighton's primary ball handler with 4.9 APG.

The Bluejays rank 14th in defense per Pomeroy. They do an excellent job with their interior defense, holding opponents to 45.9% shooting inside the perimeter, and they are superb at not allowing teams to get second chances on the boards with three quality rebounders in Kalkbrenner, Scheierman, and Arthur Kaluma. Creighton doesn't concede many free throws either as the Bluejays rank second in free throws as a percentage of field goals.

The Aztecs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games. (Getty)

San Diego State Aztecs Betting Analysis

The only player scoring in double digits for San Diego State is Matt Bradley. He is averaging 12.8 PPG, and he is the best free throw shooter too at 80.2% from the charity stripe. Bradley and Micah Parrish are the only decent perimeter shooters on the Aztecs among the starters, but Adam Seiko is knocking down 44.3% of his threes coming off the bench.

Unlike Creighton, there is a lot of depth on San Diego State. The Aztecs don't have anybody playing more than 27 MPG, and they seven players averaging at least 20 MPG. Brian Dutcher makes frequent use of substitutions in order to keep fresh legs on the court to help with this defense, and you can't argue with the results considering this is the best year in program history.

San Diego State does an excellent job limiting opponents from downtown as teams are making just 28.1% of their three-point attempts against the Aztecs. Alabama made just 3 of 27 threes on Friday, and lottery pick Brandon Miller could only make 1 of his 10 attempts from distance. Miller also turned the ball over six times, as Alabama had a problem with turnovers, but don't expect the same out of Creighton here. The Bluejays have had two years to gel, and they know their roles.