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College Football

SEC Notebook – Week 11

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
16 minute read
Editor's Note: Brian Edwards easily cashed a winner on last night's 'under' (69) in Wake Forest's 27-23 upset win at N.C. State. Since Oct. 13, Brian's guaranteed picks have hit at a 10-3 clip (76.9%, +6.7 Units), so don't miss out on his next pay-if-it-wins-only selection for tonight!

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**Vanderbilt at Missouri**

-- As of early Friday night, most betting shops had Missouri (5-4 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) favored by 16 points with a total of 63. The Tigers were 17-point ‘chalk’ on Wednesday and the total was 62, so there’s been a little bit of line movement. The Commodores were +600 on the money line (risk $100 to win $600).

-- Barry Odom’s team is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season. Mizzou has gone 2-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite.

-- Missouri picked up its first SEC win of the season last week by going to The Swamp and destroying the Gators 38-17 as a 6.5-point road underdog. The Tigers were led by Drew Lock, who had an abysmal 1/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his team’s first four SEC games. Lock completed 24-of-32 passes for 250 yards and three TDs without a turnover against the Gators. I don’t think the return of top target Emanuel Hall can be overstated. Hall, a first-team All-SEC selection last year, had missed five games in a row before catching four balls for 77 yards and one TD at UF.

-- Lock has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 2,394 yards with a 19/6 TD-INT ratio. He finished 2017 with a 44/13 TD-INT ratio. The senior signal caller is second in school history in career passing yards with 11,089. With four games remaining, Lock needs to throw for 1,426 more yards to break Chase Daniel’s record. Hall is Lock’s favorite target with 22 receptions for 507 yards and four TDs in just four games played.

-- Mizzou is three-deep in the backfield with Larry Rountree and Damarea Crockett getting the bulk of the load with help from Tyler Badie. Roundtree has 666 rushing yards and nine TDs with a 5.5 yards-per-carry average. Crockett has run for 577 yards and six scores, averaging 4.7 YPC, while Badie has 348 rushing yards, one TD and a 5.0 YPC average.

-- Vanderbilt (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) needs two more wins to garner the second bowl bid of Derek Mason’s five-year tenure. After facing Missouri, the Commodores will host Ole Miss and Tennessee. They’ve had two weeks to prep for this spot after winning their first SEC game at Arkansas by a 45-31 count as one-point road favorites. Ke’Shawn Vaughn returned to the lineup to explode for 172 rushing yards and three TDs on 26 carries. Senior QB Kyle Shurmur hit on 13-of-19 throws for 192 yards and two TDs without an interception. Junior TE Jared Pinkney had five catches for 93 yards and two TDs.

-- Vaughn was enjoying a huge game when he was injured in the second quarter vs. Florida on Oct. 13. Vandy led the Gators 21-3 when Vaughn went down and eventually lost a 37-27 decision as a nine-point home underdog. The transfer from Illinois missed the 14-7 loss at Kentucky the following week. For the season, Vaughn has rushed for 667 yards and eight TDs with a 6.8 YPC average. He also has seven catches for 131 yards and one TD.

-- Shurmur is one of the SEC’s top QBs who I believe has a future in the NFL, where his father is the head coach of the New York Giants (for now). Shurmur has completed 60.0 percent of his passes for 2,037 yards with a 14/5 TD-INT ratio. He’s been the victim of many drops from a young group of wideouts. Shurmur has two extremely talented targets in Pinkney and New Orleans native Kalija Lipscomb, who has 58 receptions for 632 yards and six TDs. Pinkney has 30 catches for 485 yards and five TDs.

-- Vandy has lost outright in three of four road assignments, but it has produced a 3-1 spread record. Since Mason took over in 2014, the Commodores have been excellent as double-digit underdogs with a 13-8 spread record. They’re 2-1 ATS in three such spots this season. As a road underdog of any amount during Mason’s tenure, Vandy has compiled a 12-11 ATS mark.

-- The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for the Commodores, 3-1 in their four road assignments. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 50.7 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 5-3-1 overall for the Tigers, 3-1-1 in their home outings. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 63.3 PPG.

-- The SEC Network will have the telecast at noon Eastern.

**South Carolina at Florida**

-- Much of the speculation in Gainesville this week had been about who would be under center for the first snap at the quarterback position. That conundrum is no longer in play after third-year sophomore QB Kyle Trask broke his foot at Wednesday’s practice. Trask, who looked sharp in relief of Feleipe Franks in last week’s 38-17 home loss to Missouri, will miss the rest of the season.

-- Trask promptly marched UF down the field for a TD drive when he was inserted in place of the ineffective Franks. He completed 10-of-18 passes for 126 yards and one TD without an interception. Franks had struggled mightily against the Tigers, hitting on just 9-of-22 throws for 84 yards. So just when Trask appeared to be on the cusp of his first career start, his entire season is over. Franks will be backed up by true freshman Emory Jones, who UF head coach Dan Mullen still plans on redshirting. Jones has played in two games so, per the new redshirt rules, he can play in two of the Gators’ four remaining games. This means that WR Kadarius Toney, who was an elite QB at the prep level and threw a TD pass in his only attempt this year at Mississippi State, will have to be the back-up QB in two of UF’s remaining contests.

-- As of Friday, most betting shops had Florida (6-3 straight up, 6-3 against the spread) installed as a six-point home favorite with a total of 54. The Gamecocks were +200 on the money line.

-- Since starting the season 6-1 both SU and ATS, UF has lost back-to-back games by lopsided margins vs. Georgia (36-17) and vs. Missouri. On the flip side, USC has won consecutive contests vs. Tennessee (27-24) and at Ole Miss (48-44). Trailing the Rebels by 10 early in the fourth quarter last week, the Gamecocks scored 14 unanswered points on a three-yard TD run by A.J. Turner and four-yard scoring scamper by Jake Bentley to secure the outright victory as two-point road underdogs.

-- South Carolina (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) and UF have both been eliminated from the SEC East race. Both schools are sitting at 4-3 in SEC play, making this a battle for third place in the division. Will Muschamp’s squad has won two of three road assignments both SU and ATS this year, while the Gators are 3-2 both SU and ATS in five home games.

-- South Carolina is on a 6-1 ATS roll in its past seven road contests. When listed as a road underdog on Muschamp’s watch, USC is 6-4 ATS. However, the Gamecocks have covered the number in their past five such spots with three outright wins.

-- Muschamp has faced his former team twice since taking over in Columbia. Florida won a 20-7 decision as a 12.5-point home favorite in 2016, with the 27 combined points dropping ‘under’ the 38-point total. Jordan Scarlett led the Gators with 134 rushing yards on 20 attempts. Jake Bentley, then a true freshman making his fourth career start, completed 18-of-33 passes for 213 yards with one interception. Deebo Samuel had four receptions for 53 yards, while Bryan Edwards had two catches for 37 yards.

-- In last year’s rematch at Williams-Brice Stadium, USC captured a 28-20 victory as a 4.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 48 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 41.5-point total thanks to a UF score with 3:43 remaining. The Gamecocks enjoyed a 24-12 advantage in first downs and a 469-301 edge in total offense. Bentley threw for 249 yards, but he was intercepted three times to keep UF in the game. He did run for a pair of TDs, however, but he has a 0/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in two games against UF. Turner produced 136 yards on 22 carries and Mon Denson ran for 61 yards and two TDs on 13 attempts. Turner also caught three balls for 36 yards, while Edwards had three receptions for 48 yards. Franks was yanked after completing only 10 of his 25 passes for 174 yards with one interception.

-- The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five games in this rivalry. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings.

-- Totals have been an overall wash for USC (4-4), with the ‘under’ going 2-1 in its three road outings. The Gamecocks, who have seen the ‘under’ cash at a 4-2 clip in their past six contests, have seen their games average combined scores of 58.9 points per game.

-- Totals have been an overall wash for the Gators (4-4-1), too. The ‘under’ is 3-2 in their five home games. UF has seen its games average combined scores of 51.7 PPG.

-- Trask is the only new injury for Florida. The same can’t be said for the Gamecocks, who are dangerously thin in the secondary after losing two more safeties to season-ending injuries last week. Those players would be Jaymest Williams and Javon Charleston. Williams had recorded 32 tackles, two passes broken up, one tackle for loss and one interception.

-- Junior RB Rico Dowdle and senior LB Bryson Allen-Williams are listed as ‘questionable’ at UF. Dowdle has rushed for 495 yards and three TDs with a 5.1 yards-per-carry average, but the Gamecocks have excellent depth at RB with Turner, Denson and Ty’Son Williams.

-- ESPN will provide television coverage at noon Eastern.

**Mississippi State at Alabama**

-- Nick Saban’s dynastic 12-year run at Alabama continued last week, as he tortured his former team yet again in a 29-0 win at LSU as a 14.5-point road favorite. The Crimson Tide beat the Tigers for the eighth straight time since losing a 9-6 decision at home in overtime of the 2011 season. It was a dominant performance with ‘Bama enjoying a 29-13 advantage in first downs and a 576-196 edge in total offense. The Tide ran for 281 yards with a 7.6 YPC average, while LSU was held to 12 rushing yards on 25 attempts. Tua Tagovailoa completed 25-of-42 passes for 295 yards and two TDs, but he was intercepted for the first time this year. He had a 44-yard TD run as well, while Damien Harris produced 107 rushing yards and one TD on 19 carries. Jerry Jeudy had eight receptions for 103 yards.

-- As of Friday, most spots had Alabama (9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS) listed as a 23-point home favorite with a total of 52.5. The Bulldogs were +1200 to win outright (risk $100 to win $1,200).

-- Alabama owns a 9-0 spread record in the first half this year. Most books had the Tide favored by 14 points over Mississippi State for first-half bets on Friday.

-- Alabama is unbeaten in four home games with a 2-2 spread record.

-- Tagovailoa has completed 68.0 percent of his passes for 2,361 yards with a 27/1 TD-INT ratio. He’s rushed for 172 yards and three TDs, averaging 5.9 YPC. Jeudy has 39 receptions for 880 yards and 10 TDs, while Jaylen Waddle has 25 catches for 501 yards and three TDs. Henry Ruggs has 28 catches for 499 yards and eight TDs, and Irv Smith Jr. has caught 25 balls for 448 yards and six TDs. Waddle is also a factor on special teams, averaging 14.6 yards per punt return.

-- Alabama’s leading rusher, Najee Harris, is listed as ‘questionable’ due to an ankle injury. He has run for 572 yards and four TDs with a 6.8 YPC average. Back-up QB Jalen Hurts is also a question mark due to an ankle sprain. Hurts has completed 39-of-53 throws (73.6%) for 589 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. Hurts has run for 136 yards and one TD with a 4.9 YPC average. Damien Harris has 542 rushing yards, six TDs and a 6.2 YPC average.

-- Mississippi State (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) led nearly the entire game against Alabama in Starkville last season, only to see a fourth-quarter lead evaporate in a 31-24 loss as a 14-point home underdog. Hurts found Devonta Smith for a 26-yard scoring strike with 25 ticks remaining to lift his team to victory. Damien Harris ran for 93 yards and one TD on eight carries, while Hurts and Josh Jacobs also had rushing scores. Nick Fitzgerald rushed for 66 yards and one TD on 21 attempts for MSU. He completed 13-of-24 passes for 158 yards without committing a turnover.

-- Joe Moorhead’s club has won three of its past four games both SU and ATS, including last week’s 45-3 win over La. Tech as a 23-point home favorite. After dropping back-to-back games at Kentucky (28-7) and vs. Florida (13-6), MSU responded with a 23-9 victory over Auburn as a three-point home underdog. Then after a 19-3 loss at LSU, the Bulldogs collected consecutive wins vs. Texas A&M (28-13) and La. Tech.

-- Fitzgerald has completed only 50.8 percent of his passes for 1,252 yards with a 10/7 TD-INT ratio. He does his best work with his legs, producing a team-best 839 rushing yards and nine TD with a 5.4 YPC average. Kylin Hill, who is listed as ‘questionable’ at ‘Bama due to an ankle injury, has run for 536 yards and three TDs while averaging 6.6 YPC. WR Osirius Mitchell is also a question mark due to an undisclosed injury. Mitchell has a team-best 20 receptions for 347 yards and three TDs.

-- MSU is 1-2 both SU and ATS on the road this year. The Bulldogs are just 13-19 ATS in 32 games as road underdogs since the start of the 2008 campaign.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-1 overall for MSU, 3-0 in its road contests. The Bulldogs have seen their games average combined scores of 41.4 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 8-2-1 in the past 11 head-to-head meetings in this rivalry, but the ‘over ‘has hit in back-to-back encounters.

-- If the number holds at around 52.5 or 53 points, it’ll be Alabama’s second-lowest total of the year (51.5 last week at LSU is the lowest). The Tide has watched the ‘over’ go 6-3 overall, 4-1 in its home outings. Their games have averaged combined scores of 65.4 PPG.

-- CBS will have television coverage at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Auburn at Georgia**

-- As of Friday night, most books had Georgia (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) listed as a 13.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 52.5. The Tigers were +450 on the money line (risk $100 to win $450).

-- Kirby Smart’s team clinched the SEC East with last week's 34-17 win at Kentucky as a 9.5-point road favorite. The 51 combined points elevated ‘over’ the 47.5-point total. De’Andre Swift erupted for 156 rushing yards and two TDs on 16 carries, while Elijah Holyfield ran for 115 yards and one score on 18 attempts.

-- UGA is undefeated in four home games with a 2-2 spread record.

-- Sophomore QB Jake Fromm has completed 67.7 percent of his throws for 1,762 yards with a 17/4 TD-INT ratio. His favorite target is Riley Ridley, who has 30 catches for 411 yards and five TDs.

-- Holyfield has rushed 674 yards and five TDs with a 6.5 YPC average. Swift has produced 622 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 6.3 YPC average.

-- Auburn (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) is 1-1 both SU and ATS on the road this year.

-- Trailing 24-14 with 5:14 remaining last week at home, Auburn got a Chandler Cox one-yard TD run to trim the deficit to three. Then with 1:41 left, Jarrett Stidham found Seth Williams for an 11-yard TD pass to cap the comeback win. The Tigers covered for most bettors as the line closed at 3.5 in most betting shops. The 52 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 47-point total. Stidham threw for 239 yards and two TDs without an interception.

-- Stidham has completed 60.6 percent of his passes for 1,953 yards with a 10/4 TD-INT ratio.

-- These schools split a pair of meetings last year with Auburn beating up on UGA by a 40-17 count as a 2.5-point home underdog. The 57 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 48-point total. However, three weeks later at the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, UGA got even with a 28-7 win as a two-point ‘chalk.’ The 35 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 48-point tally. Fromm completed 16-of-22 passes for 183 yards and two TDs without an interception. Swift rushed for 88 yards and one TD on seven carries.

-- Totals have been an overall wash (4-4-1) for UGA, but the ‘under’ is 4-0-1 in its home games. The Bulldogs have seen their games average combined scores of 54.6 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for the Tigers, 2-0 in their road contests. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 45.7 PPG.

-- Kickoff is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Kentucky will be in bounce-back mode when it travels to Knoxville to face Tennessee. As of Friday night, most books had UK installed as a five-point favorite with a total of 41. This game will kick at Neyland Stadium 3:30 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.

-- Texas A&M will play host to Ole Miss at noon Eastern on CBS. The Aggies were 11.5 or 12-point home favorites at most books Friday, while the total was 67.

-- LSU will try to get back on track at Arkansas for a 7:30 p.m. Eastern kick on the SEC Network. Most books had the Tigers favored by 11.5 points with a total of 48.5.

Follow Brian Edwards' sports gambling opinions on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.

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