Betting Recap – Week 11

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

The largest underdogs to win straight up
UNLV (+24, ML +1300) at San Diego State, 27-24
Wake Forest (+19, ML +800) at N.C. State, 27-23
Old Dominion (+14.5, ML +450) vs. North Texas, 34-31
Northwestern (+10.5, ML +350) at Iowa, 14-10
Minnesota (+10.5, ML +300) vs. Purdue, 41-10

The largest favorites to cover
Utah State (-31) vs. San Jose State, 62-24
Stanford (-24) vs. Oregon State, 48-17
Alabama (-22) vs. Mississippi State, 24-0
Syracuse (-20.5) vs. Louisville, 54-23
Appalachian State (-19.5) at Texas State, 38-7

Top 25 Notes

-- Another week, another Alabama domination. The good news is that Mississippi State held the Crimson Tide to a season-low 24 points. The bad news is that the Bulldogs managed as many points as you and I. After dominating on offense for the entire season, now the Tide defense has pitched two shutouts in a row. Is there any reason to continue this season, or should be just crowd them champions right now? 

-- Michigan  rolled up a 76-0 victory in 2016 at Rutgers, and this season's installment of the Wolverines is much more powerful. What would happen? Believe it or not, the Scarlet Knights were tied with the No. 4 Wolverines 7-7 after 15 minutes. Then, the bottom fell out, but they did enough to cover the 36 1/2-point number in a 42-7 loss. The Scarlet Knights are 3-0 ATS across the past three outings.

-- Over the years, Kentucky has been a doormat in the SEC, but this year they were playing for a championship. Last weekend they hosted Georgia in a battle for the SEC East title. They came up short, but surely they wouldn't lose to Tennessee again, would they? The Vols spoiled things for the Wildcats in a big way, 24-7 in their most complete game of the season.  

-- Iowa hosted Northwestern as 11-point favorites, looking to keep their hopes alive in the Big Ten West. The Wildcats trailed 3-0 at halftime, but they rallied for a 14-10 road win. After a 1-3 SU start, the Wildcats are 5-1 SU over their past six games while going 4-1-2 ATS across the past seven outings.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- Miami-Florida started the season with huge expectations in a neutral-site game against LSU in Arlington. They were never in that game, but they rallied for five wins in a row. It turns out, they're not very good. They have lost four in a row and they have failed to cover five in a row, slipping to 5-5 SU/3-7 ATS overall. The 'under' has hit in four in a row for the Canes, too. ... Florida State headed to Notre Dame, and the Irish had to turn back to QB Brandon Wimbush due to an injury to QB Ian Book. No problem. The Irish smoked the 'Noles 42-13 to easily cover a 17-point number, moving to 5-1-1 ATS over the past seven with the 'over' 6-1. 

-- Indiana hosted Maryland, winning 34-32 to move to 5-5 SU/4-6 ATS. The Hoosiers haven't managed to cover in back-to-back games this season. They're at Michigan next Saturday as they look for the second straight cover. ... Penn State ended the hopes of Wisconsin in the Big Ten West, 22-10. The Badgers have been horrific against the spread, going 0-3 ATS over the past three and 2-8 ATS across the past 10. The 'under' is 3-0 over the past three contests for the Badgers, too. ... Nebraska laid 17 points against Illinois, and at the time it seemed a bit much. The Huskers, already eliminated from bowl contention, roughed up the Illinin to cover the number. The Illini have slipped to 1-4 SU/ATS, failing to secure their fifth win. It's more than likely they'll be home for the holiday like the Wildcats.

-- Kansas covered a 10-point number against rival Kansas State, falling at Bill Snyder Family Stadium by a 21-17 score. The Jayhawks slipped to 3-7 SU, but they're a respectable 5-4 ATS over the past nine outings. ... Bedlam lived up to the hype and then some. Oklahoma held a 34-28 lead at halftime over Oklahoma State, and the game was tied 41-41 late. The Sooners scored a go-ahead touchdown late, leading 48-41, but Cowboys came right back and scored to make it 48-47. HC Mike Gundy elected to go for two late, and the Pokes failed. It was a great game, though, and they easiler covered the 21 1/2. ... Texas Tech was performing in front of the nation for a second consecutive weekend, and they lost another heartbreaker. This time it was Texas nipping them 41-34. There were just 37 points on the board going into the fourth quarter, but 'over' (62 1/2) received a gift with 38 total points in the fourth.

-- California snapped a 14-game losing streak to USC, winning 15-14 in a defensive battle. The Golden Bears are also bowl eligible for the first time in three years, while the Trojans are still waiting to punch their ticket. USC is 1-3 SU ATS across the past four outings, and now they need a win at rival UCLA or against Notre Dame if they want to go bowling. ... Colorado started 5-0 SU, but now they're 5-5 after a 31-7 loss against Washington State. The Cougars moved to 9-1 SU/ATS as the good times continue to roll.  

-- Missouri have qualified for a bowl, helping themselves out with a 33-28 win over Vanderbilt. The Tigers are 6-4 SU/5-5 ATS even though they have failed to cover back-to-back games since Sept. 1-8. The 'under' is 3-0 over the past three for Mizzou. ... Florida beat old bud Will Muschamp and South Carolina, 35-31.  The Gators opened 6-1 ATS in the first seven, but they're 0-3 ATS over the past three.

Bad Beats

-- ESPN's Scott Van Pelt referenced Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech and someone else last week on his show, as the bad beat kings. The Owls association with bad beats is uncanny. They led 27-15 with less than three minutes go, and they got the ball back with an 18-point number. Then RB Kerrith Whyte Jr. ripped off a 77-yard TD run with 2:19 to go, changing the result to an FAU cover.

-- With a total of 45 1/2, Southern Mississippi tied Alabama-Birmingham 20-20 with 7:09 to go. Neither team was able to boot a game-winning field and save 'under' bettors. USM kicked a field goal, UAB scored a TD and the over bettors were celebrating.

-- Memphis led 47-14 over Tulsa into the final minute with a total of 65 1/2. The Golden Hurricane scored a meaningless touchdown with :11 to go, flipping the under to an over for a tough bad beat.  

-- Last, but certainly not least, Mississippi slipped at Texas A&M 38-24. The Rebels were catching 13, and they were tied 21-21 with 4:04 to go in the third quarter. A&M took a 10-point lead, 31-21, with 4:36 to go, and Old Miss booted a field goal wiht 1:51 to take a 31-24 lead. The Aggies recovered the onside kick, and it appeared they'd run out the clock. But for Rebels bettors...they took an awful beat, as Trayveon Williams ripped off a 46-yard TD run 12 seconds later to take a 38-24, changing an Ole Miss cover into a bad beat.

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