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NCAAF

Sep 22, 2019

Betting Recap - Week 4

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College Football Week 4 Results
WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 47-11
Against the Spread 30-27-1
WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 37-21
Against the Spread 26-31-1
WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 29-27-2
YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 250-39
Against the Spread 146-136-7
YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 209-76
Against the Spread 132-146-7
YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 138-148-5

The largest underdogs to win straight up

San Jose State (+20, ML +800) at Arkansas, 31-24
UCLA (+18, ML +700) at Washington State, 67-63
Buffalo (+14, ML +450) vs. Temple, 38-22
Pittsburgh (+10, ML +320) vs. UCF, 35-34
Colorado (+7.5, ML +295) vs. Arizona State, 34-31
SMU (+7.5, ML +240) at TCU, 41-38 

The largest favorites to cover

Clemson (-41.5) vs. Charlotte, 52-10
Ohio State (-38.5) vs. Miami-Ohio, 76-5
Alabama (-37) vs. Southern Miss, 49-7 
Wake Forest (-30) vs. Elon, 49-7
Indiana (-27.5) vs. Connecticut, 38-3
LSU (-24) at Vanderbilt, 66-38

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- The big story in the AAC was in the Steel City, as U CF was tripped up by Pittsburgh, 35-34. As such, the Knights saw their 25-game regular-season win streak dating back to Nov. 2016 snapped. Not only was it the first loss for UCF, it was their first non-cover, too. The 'over' has hit in their past two after two 'under' results to start. ... SMU picked up a nice 41-38 road victory against TCU, as the Mustangs moved to 4-0 SU for the first time since 1984, and they also improved to 4-0 ATS with the 'over' 4-0. ... Tulsa didn't cover, but they were able to top Wyoming, 24-21. They're 2-2 SU/ATS, which is rather inconsistent, but the 'under' has connected in each of their four outings to make them a favorite of total bettors. ... Tulane opened the week with a 38-31 victory over Houston, improving to 3-1 SU/ATS. It also started the weekend off with the first bad beat (see below).

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Appalachian State picked North Carolina up the 34-31 win at Kenan Stadium, blocking a potential game-tying field goal to secure the road win. After opening 2-0 SU/ATS, the Tar Heels are 0-2 SU/ATS across the past two. ... Florida State posted a much-needed 35-24 victory against Louisville. While it still wasn't a complete game, as the Seminoles blew a 21-0 lead after 15 minutes, they were able to come back in the fourth quarter for their first cover of the season after opening 0-2-1 ATS. It was also FSU's first 'under' result after three overs. ... N.C. State held off Ball State, 34-23 in a game which saw the total end as a bit of a bad beat (see below). ... It wasn't quite a bad beat, but Clemson topped Charlotte, 52-10. With just over six minutes to go, leading 45-10, the Tigers scored a touchdown to not only flip the side to Clemson -41.5, but the total of 60.5 also went over. ... Miami-Florida survivied a scare from Central Michigan, winning a low-scoring 17-12 game. As such, the Hurricanes are 2-2 SU/ATS and the total is 2-2 as well. The Canes are the picture of mediocrity.

BIG TEN

-- Ohio State roughed up Miami-Ohio by a 76-5 score after shaking off the Redhawks. It was just 7-5 after 15 minutes, but the Buckeyes scored 42 points in the second quarter to blow it wide open. The Buckeyes have managed at least 42 points in each of their four outings, and they have covered three in a row since failing to cover against FAU in the opener. The 'over' is also 2-0 in the past two, thanks to 127 points of offense. ... After a dismal offensive performance last week Michigan State was able to bounce back, winning at Northwestern, 31-10. The Spartans defense has been stingy, allowing just 11.0 PPG through for outings. ... In the marquee game of the day in the conference it was Wisconsin humbling the so-called great Jim Harbaugh and Michigan, 35-14. The Wolverines fell behind 28-0 at halftime and were never really in the game. The Badgers are 3-0 SU/ATS. On a positive note for the Wolverines, they were the first team to score against the Badgers in 2019 after 10 consecutive scoreless quarters to begin the season.

BIG 12

-- Kansas was back to their losing ways, falling to West Virginia by a 29-24 score. However, the Jayhawks put up a strong fight and proved their no longer going to be an easy out. KU has scored 24 or more points in three of their four outings. ... Oklahoma State picked up a cover at most shops with their 36-30 loss at Texas, but the Longhorns were able to pick up the much-needed marquee win. It won't get any easier for the Longhorns, as they visit Morgantown next week before their annual Red River Rivalry game against Oklahoma. ... Iowa State smashed Louisiana-Monroe by a 72-20 count. The Cyclones were impressive on offense, posting at least 13 points in every quarter, while outscoring the visitors 45-7 in the second half. ... It wasn't impressive, but Baylor topped Rice 21-13 in a low-scoring battle. The Bears might be 3-0 SU, but they're 1-2 ATS so far. It was their first 'under' result after a pair of overs to start. In fact, the Bears entered averaging 59.5 PPG. They're allowing just 14.7 PPG through three games.

CONFERENCE USA

-- Florida Atlantic socked around FCS Wagner at FAU Stadium by a 42-7 count. This game featured a little bit of a bad beat for total bettors (see below). ... UAB went for a 35-3 victory against South Alabama, picking up the eary cover. While it wasn't a bad beat, over bettors (48) were a little unhappy with the result. There were 31 points on the board at halftime, but a total of just seven points in the third quarter and no points in the fourth. ... Old Dominion fired out to a 10-0 lead after 15 minutes at Virginia, and they held a 17-7 victory at the break. It was shades of ODU's win last season against Virginia Tech. However, the Cavaliers outscored the Monarchs 21-0 in the final 30 minutes, covering a 14-point second-half line while the 'under' came in for the game and the second half. ... Louisiana Tech picked up a 43-31 win against Florida International. Perhaps the biggest surprise in this game was the 'over' (51) cashing after a scoreless first quarter. FIU, picked to finish second in C-USA preseason polls, is now 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. This was also a good ol' fashioned C-USA bad beat (see below).

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- It was a rough week for the MAC, as the league went 3-6 SU in games against non-league opponents. However, Toledo was able to pick up and impressive road win at Colorado State, 41-35. However, the Rockets just missed the cover at both shops by a half-point. ... Kent State hammered Bowling Green in the conference opener for both. The Golden Flashes entered the game with a total of 49 points in their first three outings. Their cover was the first since Aug. 29, their opener. The 'over' has cashed in the past two for Kent State, too. ... Buffalo earned a little bit of respect back for the league with a 38-22 win over Temple as 14-point underdogs. It was their first cover after opening 0-3 ATS.

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- New Mexico outlasted New Mexico State in a crazy 55-52 victory in Albuquerque. When the Lobos and Aggies hook up there are plenty of points sure to follow. The 'over' is a perfect 3-0 for UNM so far, as they have averaged 36.0 PPG on offense while yielding 46.3 PPG on defense. ... San Jose State scored a huge victory for their program, topping Arkansas by a 31-24 count. It was the first win against a Power 5 opponent since 2006 for the Spartans. The 'under' has cashed in all three games for San Jose State so far, ans they're a respectable 2-1 SU. The cover was their first of the season, too. ... Nevada posted a nice 37-21 road win over UTEP, moving to 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. The 'over' is also 3-1 in four games for the Wolf Pack. ... Utah State earned the 23-17 victory at San Diego State to move to 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. ... Boise State remained perfect at 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS after topping Air Force on Friday night by a 30-19 score. After UCF's lost to Pitt, the Broncos are now likely the top Group of Five entrant.

PAC-12

-- The game of the day might have been in Pullman. Well, if you like offense, that is. Washington State was comfortably ahead by a 49-17 score midway through the third quarter, and UCLA looked dead in the water. However, the Bruins, who scored 42 total points over their first three games, and exactly 14 points in each, rattled off 50 points in the final 22 minutes to outlast the Cougs 67-63. It was an unbelievable game, and QB Anthony Gordon of Washington State tossed a school record nine touchdown passes and lost. ... California stayed unbeaten with a road victory at Mississippi, 28-20. It was a controversial ending, as it appeared the Rebels scored to cut the lead to 28-26. However, the receiver looked to have two feet down in the end zone and the play wasn't even reviewed. The Rebels were stuffed on the next play and time ran out, handing the Rebels a tough loss on their home field. ... Colorado outlasted Arizona State, 34-31, despite the fact they lost star WR Laviska Shenault to an injury early on, as well as pro prospect DT Mustafa Johnson. The Buffaloes are now 3-1 SU/ATS, bouncing back from their overtime loss against Air Force.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Tennessee was hammered by their rivals in Florida, 34-3. It was rather surprising since the Gators were down to their backup quarterback after losing QB Feleipe Franks last week. The Gators are now 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS, and the 'under' has cashed in three of their four outings. ... One of the more overlooked games, it seems, was Auburn-Texas A&M. The Tigers fired out to a 14-0 lead and held on for the 28-20 win over the Aggies as the total pushed at most shops. The Tigers are now an impressive 4-0 ATS, and their offense still hasn't started to hit on all cylinders. ... Alabama posted the 49-7 win over Southern Miss, earning the late cover. How late? See bad beats below, as the Tide were involved for the second straight week. ... Georgia-Notre Dame was the game everyone was talking about, and the battle actually lived up to the hype. The Irish had their chances late, but they fell 23-17 in between the hedges. The Bulldogs have allowed just 10.0 PPG, and the 'under' is 3-1 in four games for UGA, and 3-0 in their three outings vs. FBS opponents.

SUN BELT

-- Georgia State spiked the ball as time ran out in regulation, and Texas State celebrated on the field. They thought they won 27-24, but after review, it was determined they had :01 left. They booted the field goal to send the game to overtime. With a total of 62.5, OT was the last thing under bettors wanted to see. GSU scored a TD to take a 34-27 lead, and they just needed defense for the cover and under. Neither happened, as the Bobcats scored to tie it 34-34. After a missed field goal by TSU, the Panthers had a chance to win it and missed their field goal, too. In 2 OT, the Panthers again misfired, while the Bobcats sunk them to win 37-34. It was a push at most shops. ... Troy notched a 35-7 road victory against Akron. The Trojans have scored at least 35 points in all three of their games, but this was their first cover and 'under' result. The Trojans have scored at least 35 points in all three of their games, but this was their first cover and 'under' result. The Zips are now 0-4 SU/ATS.

Bad Beats

-- In the Ball State-N.C. State game, there was a total of 59. At 34-16, the Cardinals scored a touchdown at 4:49 to go, making it 34-23. They recovered the onside kick and appeared to be in business. They drove inside the red zone with less than three minutes to go, but their QB forced one into coverage, it was tipped and picked off. Instead of a sure field goal to make it 34-26, and a one-possession game, and more importantly, 'over', the 'under' came through.

-- The Crimson Tide were leading 42-7 with 5:43 to go in the third period, and that score held up for the next 19 minutes. The Crimson Tide, favored by 37, appeared like they were going to win by 35. However, they ended up punching in a touchdown with 1:37 to go to get the late cover. For the second straight week the Tide were involved in a bad beat in the final moments of a blowout.

-- In the Wagner-FAU game, the Owls held a 42-7 lead late. The Seahawks got the ball down inside the FAU 5-yard line. They were stuffed several times and ended up turning the ball over on downs, failing to get it into the end zone. A touchdown would have pushed the total over (55.5), but the game ended up with a total of 49 points on the board.

-- In that Houston-Tulane game, the Green Wave were favored by four points. The game was tied 31-31 with less than 10 seconds left, and appeared headed for overtime. However, Tulane struck for a 53-yard touchdown with :03 remaining to win it 38-31, sinking those holding Cougars tickets.

-- The end of the FIU-Louisiana Tech game was gross if you were a Golden Panthers backer, catching six or seven. FIU scored a touchdown with :51 left to cut the Bulldogs lead to 36-31. It appeared you were in line for a nice backdoor cover, and a bad beat if you were a Louisiana Tech side bettor. However, just five seconds later the Bulldogs scooped up the onside kick and returned it 30 yards for the touchdown. It was like losing twice if you held an FIU ticket.





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