Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:56 AM
Total Moves - Week 6
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College Football Week 6 Total Moves
The oddsmakers and I have been passing that broomstick back and forth for the past three weeks, as after Week 3's plays saw me on the wrong side of the broom, last week's plays gave me the upper hand once again. That made it two of the past three weeks that I've been on the right side of these plays sweeping the board, and hopefully this week's plays don't mirror Week 3's results.
Michigan State and Northwestern got so much 'under' love all the way until kickoff that the line actually dropped as low as 35 points. So 38 was far from the best number, but thanks to both teams finding the end zone in the final frame, the two teams managed to finish with 41 points and eclipse every number.
UCF and Pitt managed to prove that that early money on the high side of the 'over' was the correct side all along, as even before Pitt scored that final TD to win in basically walk-off fashion, the two teams had combined for 62 points already. The scoring was that high despite the two teams going a combined 9-for-33 on 3rd downs.
Before we break down the key moves, be sure to check out the top Over-Under schools for bettors.
Best OVER Schools
5-0 - Charlotte, SMU
4-0 - LSU
4-1 - Louisiana-Lafayette, Massachusetts, Miami-Ohio, Mississippi State
Best UNDER Schools
4-0 - Tulsa, San Diego State, Old Dominion, Liberty, East Carolina
4-1 - Arizona State, Arkansas, California, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, South Alabama, UCLA, Utah
It's on to Week 6's plays though, as just like every week in college football, there have been plenty of total moves already.
YTD: 6-4 ATS
Week 6 Total move to disagree with:
Maryland/Rutgers from 54 to 56
This play is one you can probably wait a bit on, because it's likely to keep climbing, and based on initial 'over' support, it's not coming back much below 56. That's still not a horrible number to go low on, as we've got two below average teams squaring off here. And while both coming off shutout losses in their last game is something that I can get behind for an 'over' look initially, trusting two bad teams to consistently put up points is a lot like trusting a teenager to come home by curfew. You want to believe they'll do it, every time it's an option, but you know it's only going to happen a couple of times out of every 10.
Maryland's offense, which was the toast of the land through the first two weeks, seem to have gotten 'blueprinted' by Temple's defense. That day the Owls really clamped down on the Terrapins attack, and Penn State went next level on it with two weeks of film study in their brains. Rutgers isn't going to have anywhere near that kind of success defensively, but they are more then capable of doing enough, especially if they continue to hurt themselves with turnovers (four in last two games).
Maryland's defense is going to want to have a bounce back effort after getting steamrolled by the Nittany Lions last week, and this is the type of opponent to to just that. Rutgers has a grand total of 16 points in their last 12 quarters of football, and as much as the situational bounce back off a shutout is there, sometimes you've just got to accept when a bad team is a bad team. Bad teams find different ways to not put up points all the time. The Terrapins may have been rolled by Penn State, but they had kept every other opponent to 20 or less before that, and Rutgers has only scored 20 or more points twice going all the way back to the 2018 season opener - 16 games.
As much as teams like this lure you in some weeks that they'll prove to make better decisions, execute better, and be home on time; chances are, some poor decision will lead into another one, and all of a sudden curfew's long gone. This matchup has had less than 56 points scored in it in each of the past three seasons, and Rutgers put up 13 or fewer in two of those games. Yes, a possible return from QB McLane Carter for Rutgers has sparked some of the love for this move, but he's still a little loose with the football and concussions are tough to have completely go away this soon.
Going against the grain is just another added benefit of a game that still probably needs too much to go right for both sides to clear this week's total.
Week 6 Total move to agree with:
Oklahoma/Kansas from 66 to 67.5
There hasn't been anyone yet who can slow down this Oklahoma attack again this year, as Jalen Hurts transfer to the program as this offense not missing a beat again. However, with the Red River Rivalry with Texas on deck, this could be a spot where Oklahoma loses a bit of focus late once the win is already established.
A look-ahead like their big game vs Texas would typically have more effect on the point spread result for this game and that may very well be. Yet, I actually think because it's Kansas across the field and the likelihood of Oklahoma being up big in the 2nd half is great, the Sooners defense could easily shut things down defensively as they mentally shift to Texas. And given the Sooners history prior to the Red River Rivalry game, chances are we do see some points.
Oklahoma is on a 7-1 O/U run the last eight years in the game before playing Texas, and that includes a run of five straight 'overs' the past five seasons. Oklahoma sports a 5-3 ATS record during that span so it's not all defensive blowups either, and you just need to look to the Sooners putting up 66 in this spot a year ago to see that. But the average total points for Sooners games the week before Texas clocks in at 71.25 points/game during this eight-year run, and only twice in that span were there fewer than 68 points scored.
Kansas has fallen back down to earth after that huge win against Boston College, as Big 12 play has not treated them well so far with an 0-2 SU and ATS record. They were blasted by TCU last week in getting outgained by nearly 500 yards overall (466), and TCU's offense can look prehistoric compared to what Oklahoma brings. As long as the Sooners are focused for at least the first three quarters, them putting up their share of points here (45+) shouldn't be an issue.
It's the ease off the pedal from Oklahoma's defense that I'm expecting to take this 'over' play to the finish line though, as the Sooners have allowed 30+ points in four of the past five years before the Red River Rivalry. Oklahoma opponents have averaged scoring 35.6 points/game themselves during that run, and Kansas likely only needs a bit more then half of that to likely secure an 'over'. That's quite doable if/when Oklahoma shuts things down on defense later in the game, as 70+ points is probably what we see from these two teams this week.
Other Notable Moves
Baylor-Kansas State: 51 to 49
Troy-Missouri: 66.5 to 64.5
Ohio-Buffalo: 54 to 51
Liberty-New Mexico State: 60 to 62
Vanderbilt-Mississippi: 60.5 to 62.5
(Odds Subject to Change)