ACC Report – Week 10

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22 minute read

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The Atlantic Coast Conference will have 13 of 15 schools in action for Week 10 for a total of six conference games and one non-conference tilt, while two teams are on a bye.

One game is scheduled for Friday, Nov. 6, 2020, while the remaining six games take place on Saturday, Nov. 7, 2020.

Conference

• Miami-Florida at N.C. State (Fri.)
• North Carolina at Duke
• Boston College at Syracuse
• Pittsburgh at Florida State
• Clemson at Notre Dame
• Louisville at Virginia

Non-Conference

• Liberty at Virginia Tech

Not In Action

• Georgia Tech, Wake Forest

Miami at N.C. State (Fri., ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Betting Odds: Miami -10.5, O/U 58

• Last Game (Oct. 24): Miami W 19-14 vs. Virginia (-13.5, 54.5)
• Last Game (Oct. 24): N.C. State L 21-48 at North Carolina (+14.5, 61.5)

The Hurricanes hit the road for Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh looking to get its offense back on track after an underwhelming 19-14 victory over Virginia at Hard Rock Stadium last time out on Oct. 24. It was a season-low performance offensively in a victory, as the defense stepped up and saved the team from an ugly upset loss at home. In the past three outings the Canes have posted just 19, 31 and 17, hitting the Under in two of the three outings. They head into this conference road game as a double-digit favorite, and they are 3-1 ATS in four games at -10 or higher, with the only non-cover in such situation coming last time out against the Hoos. On the road, Miami is 1-1 SU/ATS, getting trucked at Clemson in its most recent road showing, 42-17. Miami is 0-4 ATS in its past four after a bye week, and they're 1-4 ATS in the previous five as a road favorite.

N.C. State headed west on Interstate 40 two weeks ago to take on their Triangle rivals at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill and they were trucked 48-21. It started slowly for the Wolfpack, trailing 17-7 at halftime, and the Heels pulled away in the second half with a 31-14 margin. The blowout loss was the first non-cover for Dave Doeren's bunch since Sept. 26, snapping a 3-0 ATS run. The 'over' was something we've seen consistently from N.C. State, as the 'over' is now 5-1 in six games overall, with the lone exception an 'under' against Duke on Oct. 17. The Wolfpack are averaging 31.5 PPG this season, and allowing 34.2 PPG. N.C. State has posted a 19-7 ATS mark in the past 26 after a bye week, but they're just 3-10 ATS in the past 13 as a 'dog and 2-8 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a winning overall record.

Liberty at Virginia Tech (ACC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Betting Odds: Virginia Tech -14.5, O/U 67.5

• Last Game (Oct. 24): Liberty W 56-35 vs. Southern Miss (-14, 59.5)
• Last Week: Virginia Tech W 42-35 at Louisville (-5.5, 67.5)

The Flames of Liberty roll into Blacksburg with a perfect 6-0 SU mark and its' first-ever ranking in The Associated Press Top 25, checking in at 25. Who would have ever predicted the Flames, not the Hokies, would be the ranked team in this non-conference tilt? And the Flames are still two tutty dogs! The Flames roll in with a 3-0 ATS cover streak, including a 38-21 victory at Syracuse against an ACC foe, easily covering as three-point favorites. The Flames were a 14.5-point underdog back on Sept. 19 at Western Kentucky, too, and they won outright by a 30-24 count in its only game as a 'dog this season. The 'over' has cashed in four of the six games overall, including 2-0 in two road games this season. The Flames are also 16-5 ATS across the past 21 as a road underdog.

For Virginia Tech, they're coming off a 42-35 road win at Louisville, narrowly covering a 5.5-point number. The Hokies haven't been strong against the spread, going 3-3 ATS, and they have failed to cover in consecutive games at any point this season. On their home field they have posted a 2-0 SU/ATS mark, averaging 42.5 PPG while allowing just 19.0 PPG. That's likely a huge reason why they're a more than two-touchdown favorite over a ranked non-conference foe. Virginia Tech has cashed in just two of its past nine as a road favorite, while going 1-4 ATS in the previous five non-conference tilts.

North Carolina at Duke (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Betting Odds: North Carolina -10.5, O/U 64.5

• Last Week: North Carolina L 41-44 at Virginia (-7.5, 60)
• Last Week: Duke W 53-19 vs. Charlotte (-10.5, 55)

In the Battle for the Victory Bell, UNC heads up US 15-501 a handful of miles to Wallace Wade Stadium to battle Duke. The Tar Heels had no problem in its previous game against another local rival, N.C. State, punishing the Wolfpack 48-21. The Heels were outpaced by UVA on the road last week, and that's why North Carolina is a question mark, even in a short away game. They have dropped two in a row on the road, and they're 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS in thre road games this season. The 'under' is 2-1 in North Carolina's three games on the road, too. The Tar Heels have managed to bounce back nicely after straight-up losses, going 5-1 ATS in the past six after an SU setback, and they're 5-1 ATS in the past six following a non-cover, too.

In this series, the underdog has hit in six of the past eight meetings, which is good news for Duke. The Blue Devils usually fare pretty well at Wallace Wade Stadium, at least when it comes to the spread, going 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 as a home underdog, and 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven in Durham against a team with a winning road mark. Duke got well last week, tuning up Charlotte in a non-conference game by a 53-19 count. Duke has won two of its past three overall, and they're 3-1 ATS across the past four. They have posted 42.0 PPG in the previous two outings at home while yielding 28.5 PPG, with the 'over' 4-1 across the past five. However, the 'under' is also 5-2 in the previous seven meetings in this rivalry.

Boston College at Syracuse (ESPN3, 2:00 p.m.)

Betting Odds: Boston College -14, O/U 52.5

• Last Week: Boston College L 28-34 at Clemson (+26, 55.5)
• Last Week: Syracuse L 14-38 vs. Wake Forest (+14, 60)

The Eagles hit the road for the Carrier Dome after a near-miss against the Trevor Lawrence-less Clemson Tigers in Death Valley last week. B.C. opened a big early lead against the top team in the nation, but they were unable to hang on, fizzling down the stretch. Still, even without Lawrence, it was an impressive showing on the road to easily cover a 26-point number. QB Phil Jurkovec was shaken up late in the second half in Clemson, but the good news is that he doesn't show on the injury report this season, so it should be all systems go for B.C. The Eagles rank 29th in the nation with 268.4 passing yards per game, so that's easily the strength of its offense. Defensively, the Eagles are allowing a respectable 26.3 PPG, ranking 44th in the country. Boston College enters this game with a 5-2 ATS mark, and that includes a 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS mark in three road trips.

Syracuse has tasted victory just once in seven games, a 37-20 win over Georgia Tech back on Sept. 26 as 7.5-point underdogs. The Orange were toasted by Wake Forest on Halloween, falling 38-14, and the Orange have dropped three in a row while also going 0-3 ATS. That includes a non-conference setback to Liberty, too. Offensively, it's been a struggle for Syracuse, as they have managed just 267.1 total yards per game to rank 98th in the nation, and they have just 90.9 rushing yards per game to rank 98th. Defensively the Orange aren't much better, either, allowing 473.7 total yards to rank 86th, and they have been gouged for 228.3 rushing yards per game on the road while coughing up 33.3 PPG. The 'over' is 4-1 in the previous five games for Syracuse. The home team is also 0-4 ATS in the past four in this series.

Pittsburgh at Florida State (ACC, 4:00 p.m.)

Betting Odds: Florida State -2.5, O/U 50.5

• Last Game (Oct. 24): Pittsburgh L 3-45 vs. Notre Dame (+9.5, 43.5)
• Last Game (Oct. 24): Florida State L 16-48 at Louisville (+5, 62)

The Panthers head into this one skidding rather hard, losing four in a row while going 0-5-1 ATS in the previous six outings since its only cover against Austin Peay on Sept. 12. Pitt has yet to score a cover against an FBS team so far. Defense has been a huge problem for the Panthers lately, including allowing a season-high 45 points last time out against Notre Dame while scoring a season-low three points. The 'over' has hit in four in a row for Pittsburgh. The Panthers have had a lot of trouble on the road dating back to last season, going 0-4 ATS in the past four away from home, they're 0-5 ATS in the past five after a straight-up loss and they're 0-7-1 ATS across the past eight ACC battles, too.

For FSU, they're a hard team to figure. They surprised fifth-ranked North Carolina in Tally by a 31-28 score as 13.5-point underdogs, then they turned around a week later and were dusted by a poor Louisville team on the road, 48-16. They covered at Notre Dame, but were creamed 52-10 in Miami on Sept. 26. They're just super inconsistent, and a lack of offense has been the problem. They have scored 22.8 PPG to rank 80th, and they're 76th in the nation defensively with 35.0 PPG. While the Noles have really had their issues against the number, going 2-7 ATS in the past nine overall, they're 8-1 ATS in the previous nine against teams with a losing overall record.

Clemson at Notre Dame (NBC, 7:30 p.m.)

Betting Odds: Clemson -5.5, O/U 52

• Last Week: Clemson W 34-28 vs. Boston College (-26, 55.5)
• Last Week: Notre Dame W 31-13 at Georgia Tech (-20.5, 58.5)

Clemson will again be without star QB Trevor Lawrence, who tested positive last week prior to the Boston College game. The Tigers survived at home against the Eagles, but can they push past a top-5 team on the road? True freshman QB D.J. Uiagalelei will get the nod again, and he completed 30-of-41 passes for 342 yards and two touchdowns while also running for a score. The Tigers have won seven games this season, but they have covered just twice. On the road, they are 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS, and they posted 73 points on the road last time out, but that was with Lawrence and against a sorry Georgia Tech side. They 'over' is 3-0 in Clemson's past three, including last week's game without Lawrence. Clemson is 11-2 ATS in the past 13 as a road favorite, and 11-5 ATS in the past 16 against winning sides.

Notre Dame did enough to sneak by Georgia Tech in Atlanta, 31-13, failing to cover a 20.5-point number. They're just 1-3 ATS in the past four, but they also sport an unblemished record like Clemson. The Irish are 6-0 SU, but they're just 2-4 ATS overall with the 'over/under' at 3-3. The Irish haven't been home since Oct. 17, a narrow 12-7 win against Louisville. They have been a little bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team this season, too, but they're certainly unlikely to take the Tigers lightly, even if Clemson's Heisman quarterback is in the press box in a suit. The Irish have covered each of its past five at home as an underdog, and they're 10-4-1 ATS in the past 15 against teams with a winning overall record.

Louisville at Virginia (ACC, 8:00 p.m.)

Betting Odds: Virginia -2.5, O/U 66.5

• Last Week: Louisville L 35-42 vs. Virginia Tech (+5.5, 67.5)
• Last Week: Virginia W 44-41 vs. North Carolina (+7.5, 60)

The Cardinals hit the road for Charlottesville looking for its first road win of the season. They narrowly missed an upset at Notre Dame in its most recent trip Oct. 17, falling 12-7. They're 1-1-1 ATS in three road outings, averaging just 18.0 PPG while allowing 27.0 PPG. The Cardinals started the season rather slowly on offense, but lately they have found their sea legs, hoisting up 83 total points across the past two outings, both 'over' results. Louisville has posted 435.3 total yards overall to rank 31st, and they're 33rd in the nation with 185.1 yards on the ground, lead by Javian Hawkins, who has 822 yards and seven touchdowns. Defensively, the Cards have been trucked for 201.0 rushing yards per game, just 79th in the country.

Virginia surprised North Carolina last week, 44-41, winning outright as a 7.5-point underdog. The Hoos are 2-1 SU/ATS in three games at home with the 'over' hitting in all three games at Scott Stadium. In fact, the 'over' is 5-1 in their six games overall. Virginia has registered 27.2 PPG to rank 63rd in the country, and the offense has been very balanced. UVA is 45th in total yards (412.7), 47th in passing yards (241.0) and 46th in rushing yards (171.7). Defensively, it appeared they were getting a bit better, holding Miami to just 19 points in a narrow loss on the road, but UNC was able to roll up 41 points despite Virginia winning the game outright. They'll likely have their hands full against Louisville's improving offense, too. These teams met in Louisville last season, with the Cardinals coming away with a 28-21 win on Oct. 26, 2019.

ACC Betting Results - 2020

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