SEC Betting Notebook – Week 11

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

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Four SEC games for Week 11 have been postponed, making our weekly rant a much shorter version this time around. Auburn at Mississippi St., Alabama at LSU, Texas A&M at Tennessee and Georgia at Missouri won’t be played this weekend.

Some of those games can be made up on Dec. 12. However, with LSU already set to play at Florida on Dec. 12, SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey and his staff are going to have to do some re-arranging of multiple team’s schedules to ensure that the Tigers and Crimson Tide settle their business in Redstick.

To do so, the league will have to move multiple team’s (who, like LSU, aren’t in the mix to make it to Atlanta) games to be played on Dec. 19, the same day of the SEC Championship Game. Bettors on season win totals for teams like Alabama (hand raised, ‘over’ 8.5) need it to play all 10 games or else the wagers become refunds or no-plays.

Most books have Alabama listed as a -400 favorite to win the SEC Championship Game. Florida has the next-shortest odds at +200, followed by Texas A&M (25/1), Georgia (50/1), Auburn (125/1), Missouri (250/1), LSU (500/1), Arkansas (750/1), Kentucky (750/1), South Carolina (750/1), Tennessee (750/1) and Vanderbilt (100,000/1).

Alabama and UF are going to square off in Atlanta unless one or both squads lose twice more. Even in that case, Texas A&M and Georgia would both have to win out to win their respective divisions.

Let’s take a look at all three games remaining on the SEC portion of the Week 11 card:

SEC Week 11 Schedule & Odds

Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-18, 42)
Arkansas at Florida (-17, 60)
South Carolina at Ole Miss (-12.5, 70.5)
Alabama at LSU - Postponed
Texas A&M at Tennessee - Postponed
Georgia at Missouri - Postponed
Auburn at Mississippi State - Postponed

How to Handicap SEC Week 11

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS)

Scheduled for Saturday, Nov. 14

Vanderbilt (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS) at Kentucky (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS)

TV-Time:: SEC, 12:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Kroger Field
Location: Lexington, Kentucky

-- As of Friday afternoon, most books had Kentucky (2-4 straight up, 3-3 against the spread) installed as an 18-point favorite with a total of 42 or 42.5. The Commodores are listed anywhere from +600 to +750 on the money line.

-- Mark Stoops’s team has lost two of its three home games while posting a 2-1 spread record. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is winless in a pair of road spots, but it is 2-0 ATS with spread covers at both Texas A&M and Mississippi St.

-- Kentucky has had two weeks to prepare for the Commodores after dropping a 14-3 decision to Georgia on Oct. 31. The Wildcats did take the money, though, as 17-point home underdogs. The 17 combined points resulted in an easy winner for ‘under’ (42 points) backers. Kentucky intercepted Stetson Bennett twice, but it generated only 229 yards of total offense. With starting QB Terry Wilson out injured, Auburn transfer Joey Gatewood was given his first career start. Gatewood completed 15-of-25 passes for only 91 yards. He was limited to 23 rushing yards on 16 attempts and coughed up a fumble.

-- Kentucky is ranked No. 17 in the nation in scoring defense, limiting opponents to an average of 19.0 points per game. However, the Wildcats are ranked No. 116 nationally in both total offense (294.2 yards per game) passing yards (118.0 YPG). They’re No. 103 in scoring with their pedestrian 20.8 PPG average.

-- Wilson remains ‘questionable’ vs. Vandy due to the hand injury. Stoops hadn’t named a starter as of Friday afternoon. The ‘Cats are hoping to get back space-eating starting nose guard Quinton Bohanna, the 350-pound senior who occupies multiple blockers on every play.

-- In five games, Wilson has completed 61-of-99 passes (61.6%) for 599 yards with a 4/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has 251 rushing yards and three TDs with a 4.1 yards-per-carry average. Gatewood has appeared in four games, completing 17-of-31 attempts (54.8%) for 109 yards. He has 57 rushing yards on 24 carries for a 2.4 YPC average.

-- Kentucky RB Chris Rodriguez has a team-high 413 rushing yards and four TDs with a 5.5 YPC average. A.J. Rose has 242 rushing yards and one TD, averaging 4.1 YPC.

-- Vanderbilt (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS) snapped its three-game ATS slide in last week’s 24-17 loss at Mississippi St. Derek Mason’s team covered the number as an 18-point road underdog, but it missed out on a chance to win outright due to five turnovers. Vandy had more than twice as many first downs (30-14) and total yards (478-204) compared to the Bulldogs. True freshman QB Ken Seals completed 31-of-46 throws for 336 yards and one touchdown, but he was intercepted three times. RB Keyon Brooks ran for 115 yards and one TD on 20 carries, in addition to catching 11 balls for 97 receiving yards. WR Cameron Johnson had 10 receptions for 114 yards, while WR Chris Pierce had six catches for 76 yards and one TD.

-- Vandy’s offense has finally shown a little life in its last two games. The Commodores produced 421 yards in their 54-21 home loss to Ole Miss and generated 478 yards in Starkville last week. However, they’re still averaging a meager 12.8 PPG to rank No. 120 in the country.

-- For the season, Seals has connected on 110-of-164 passes (67.1%) for 1,066 yards with a 6/8 TD-INT ratio. Brooks has 253 rushing yards and two TDs, averaging 4.5 YPC. He also has 20 receptions for 207 yards. Johnson has a team-best 33 catches for 338 yards and one TD.

-- The ‘under’ has cashed in four consecutive games for the ‘Cats to improve to 5-1 overall and 2-1 in their home outings.

-- The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for Vandy, 2-0 in its road assignments.

-- Kentucky has won four straight games in this rivalry, going 3-1 ATS. The ‘Cats coasted to a 38-14 win as 10-point road ‘chalk’ last year at Vandy.

Arkansas (3-3 SU, 6-0 ATS) at Florida (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)

TV-Time:: ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Location: Gainesville, Florida

-- As of Friday afternoon, most books were listing Florida (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) as a 17 or 17.5-point favorite with a total of 60. The Razorbacks were +550 on the money line.

-- Arkansas senior QB Feleipe Franks returns to his home state Saturday night to lead the Razorbacks up against his former team in Gainesville. Franks, who played at Wakulla County High School about 20 minutes South of Tallahassee before signing with Florida, suffered a season-ending injury in Week 3 at Kentucky last year. Kyle Trask orchestrated a 29-21 comeback win on that night in Lexington and went on to enjoy a stellar season. With Trask clearly entrenched as the starter moving forward, Franks made the decision that was best for all parties moving forward by grad transferring to Arkansas.

-- The decision by Franks to leave has gone well for both Arkansas and Florida. With a 22/3 TD-INT ratio, Trask is in the Heisman Trophy conversation and the Gators are in the mix for a College Playoff berth. Meanwhile, Arkansas (3-3 SU, 6-0) has been one of the nation’s biggest surprises and would be 4-2 if not for the colossal mistakes made by both the referees and the replay officials that allowed Auburn to edge the Razorbacks 30-28 on a last-second field goal.

-- Franks has completed 123-of-183 passes (67.2%) for 1,428 yards with a 14/3 TD-INT ratio. He has also run for 174 yards. These numbers are even more impressive when considering that Franks didn’t have the benefit of spring practice to learn the new scheme and develop chemistry with his WRs.

-- Arkansas went to halftime trailing 13-0 last week at home vs. Tennessee, but Sam Pittman’s team answered with 24 straight points in the final 30 minutes to win 24-13 as a two-point underdog. Franks completed 18-of-24 passes for 215 yards and three TDs without an interception. Junior RB Trelon Smith had 72 rushing yards on nine carries, while Rakeem Boyd ran for 65 yards on 19 attempts. Sophomore Treylon Burks had five receptions for 95 yards and one TD, while junior WR Mike Woods had three catches for 64 yards and one TD. Junior LB Bumper Pool led the defense with 14 tackles, 1.5 TFL’s and one QB hurry.

-- Arkansas is 4-0 ATS with one outright win in four double-digit underdog situations this year.

-- Arkansas LB Grant Morgan is enjoying a helluva senior campaign. He’s recorded 70 tackles, four TFL’s, four passes broken up, one sack, one QB hurry and one pick-six that sealed the deal in a 33-21 home win over Ole Miss.

-- Smith has run for 323 yards with a 4.6 YPC average, while Boyd has 253 rushing yards and two TDs with a 3.6 YPC average. Burks has hauled in 31 receptions for 461 yards and five TDs.

-- After posting one of its biggest wins in years, Florida is a letdown spot here one week after trashing Georgia by a 44-28 count. The Gators fell behind 14-0 early before responding with 14 unanswered points. UGA then got a pick-six to take the lead back, but Dan Mullen’s team ripped off 24 straight points to take a 38-21 advantage to halftime.

-- In last week’s win over UGA that put UF in a commanding lead in the SEC East standings, Trask became the first QB in SEC history to throw for four or more TDs in five straight games. The fifth-year senior connected on 30-of-43 throws for 474 yards and four TDs with one interception. Malik Davis had five catches for 100 yards, while fellow RB Nay’quan Wright had three receptions for 71 yards. Kyle Pitts had two catches for 59 yards and one TD, but he sustained a concussion on a violent hit from UGA defensive back Lewis Cine, who also suffered a concussion and lost multiple teeth on the play that resulted in his ejection for targeting.

-- Pitts, who has 24 receptions for 414 yards and eight TDs in five games, did not return after suffering the injury in the second quarter. The Philadelphia native is listed as ‘questionable,’ but I think it’s a given that he’ll be in street clothes Saturday night at The Swamp. In fact, whether he’s medically cleared or not, I want Pitts to sit out next week’s game at Vandy, too.

-- UF is also dealing with several other injuries. DB Trey Dean remains ‘out’ and senior DE Jeremiah Moon is ‘doubtful’ with a foot injury. Senior OG Stewart Reece and senior safety Brad Stewart are listed as ‘questionable.’ Both players left the UGA game injured and did not return.

-- Trask has completed 125-of-182 passes (68.7%) for 1,815 yards. He also has 70 rushing yards on 22 attempts (3.2 YPC). Senior WR Kadarius Toney has 29 catches for 339 yards and six TDs, in addition to producing 81 rushing yards and one TD on 11 carries. Davis has 15 receptions for 255 yards, while senior WR Trevon Grimes has 13 grabs for 194 yards and three TDs.

-- Junior RB Dameon Pierce has a team-best 221 rushing yards and two TDs with a 4.5 YPC average. Davis has 100 rushing yards on 25 totes. Pierce has also contributed six receptions for 89 yards and one TD.

-- During Mullen’s three-year tenure, Florida owns an 8-5 spread record in 13 games as a home favorite.

-- Florida had won nine games in a row over Arkansas until the streak was snapped in a 31-10 loss in Fayetteville in 2016 as a four-point road favorite.

-- The ‘over’ is 4-1 overall for the Gators, 1-1 in their home games. They’ve seen their combined scores average out to 71.4 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for the Razorbacks, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in their three road contests.

South Carolina (2-4 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) at Ole Miss (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS)

TV-Time:: ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Location: Oxford, Mississippi

-- As of Friday, most spots had Ole Miss (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) installed as a 12-point favorite with a total of 70 or 70.5. The Gamecocks were +320 on the money line.

-- Will Muschamp is officially on a boiling hot seat after South Carolina (2-4 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) got run out of its own building by Texas A&M in a 48-3 loss as a 9.5-point home underdog last week. The Gamecocks mustered only 150 yards of total offense and nine first downs. Senior QB Collin Hill completed just 8-of-21 passes for 66 yards and two interceptions.

-- The good news for Muschamp is that South Carolina has four games remaining. He undoubtedly needs to win at least two of those games and probably needs a 3-1 finish to retain his job. The remaining games after this week’s trip to Oxford are vs. Missouri, vs. UGA and at Kentucky.

-- Hill has reportedly been named the starting QB vs. Ole Miss after a week of speculation. However, the grad transfer from Colorado St. will be on a short leash. For the season, Hill has completed 104-of-177 passes (58.8%) for 1,142 yards with a 5/5 TD-INT ratio. Sophomore Ryan Hilinski could see playing time early if Hill is ineffective against the Rebels, who have the SEC’s worst defense that gives up 40.7 PPG.

-- During Muschamp’s five-year tenure, South Carolina has compiled a 9-7 spread record in 16 games as a road underdog. However, we should note that the Gamecocks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 such spots.

-- South Carolina sophomore RB Kevin Harris had been enjoying an outstanding season until he was limited to 39 rushing yards on 13 totes vs. the Aggies last week. Nevertheless, Harris still has 574 rushing yards, eight TDs and a 5.4 YPC average. He also has 13 catches for 99 yards and one TD.

-- South Carolina senior WR Shi Smith has 43 receptions for 479 yards and three TDs. TE Nick Muse has 15 catches for 208 yards.

-- Ole Miss has had two weeks to prepare for South Carolina after ending a three-game losing streak with a 54-21 win at Vandy as a 17-point road ‘chalk.’ QB Matt Corral had a sensational performance, completing 31-of-34 passes for 412 yards and six TDs without an interception. He also had 23 rushing yards on six attempts. Elijah Moore was spectacular as well, bringing down 14 receptions for 238 yards and three TDs. Senior TE Kenny Yeboah had three catches for 32 yards and two TDs, while Jerrion Ealy had 95 rushing yards on 15 totes.

-- For the season, Corral has connected on 134-of-187 passes (71.7%) for 1,846 yards with an 18/9 TD-INT ratio. Corral also has 281 rushing yards and two TDs with a 4.2 YPC average. Moore has 61 receptions for 829 yards and six TDs, while Yeboah has 22 catches for 470 yards and six TDs. Jonathan Mingo has 19 grabs for 278 yards and three TDs.

-- Ealy, a true sophomore RB, has 524 rushing yards and six TDs with a 5.2 YPC average. Snoop Connor has 315 rushing yards and five TDs with a 4.5 YPC average.

-- These teams met in 2018 with South Carolina capturing a 48-44 win as a two-point underdog. The Gamecocks are 3-0 both SU and ATS against the Rebels in three head-to-head meetings since 2008.

-- The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for the Gamecocks, 3-0 in its road outings.

-- The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for the Rebels, 2-1 in their home contests.