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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:48 PM

Colorado State vs. Boise State Week 11 Predictions, Odds


  • November 12, 2020
  • By Jonathan Willis
  • VegasInsider.com

Four different quarterbacks have taken snaps for the Boise State Broncos through the first three games of the 2020 season.

That has led to plenty of speculation regarding who will be under center for head coach Bryan Harsin and the Broncos on Thursday night when they host the Colorado State Rams.

Harsin has been mum on the subject for the last two weeks, but Boise State is still a sizable favorite this week.

BETTING RESOURCES

Colorado State-Boise State Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Boise State -14
  • Money-Line: Boise State -540 Colorado State +400
  • Total: 62

Odds Subject to Change

How to Handicap Colorado State-Boise State

Colorado State is 1-1 this season after its win over Wyoming last week.

The Rams beat the Cowboys despite being three-point home underdogs. They jumped out to an early 14-0 lead after a Marshaun Cameron interception return for a touchdown was followed up by a Wyoming fumble and a Patrick O’Brien touchdown pass to Trey McBride on the very next play.

The Rams held on from there to earn a 34-24 win despite surrendering 465 total yards. Wyoming turned the ball over three times, and that was instrumental in the minor upset.

Boise State won its first two games of the season comfortably, handily covering the spread against both Utah State and Air Force.

They were eviscerated by BYU last Friday though, as the absence of starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier and injury to back-up Jack Sears killed the Broncos’ chances of competing with the Cougars. The Broncos lost that game 51-17, and it was their worst home loss since 1996.

All three of Boise State’s games have gone over the total so far this season as the defense has not been as sharp as it was under Andy Avalos. That has helped bump this line up from where it originally opened on Sunday evening.

Betting Analysis – Rams

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • 2020: 1-1 S/U, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U

O’Brien proved to be a much better option under center than Todd Centeio last week against the Cowboys. O’Brien isn’t the mobile threat that Centeio is with the ball in his hands, but he proved to be a superior passer. He has now completed 25 of 36 passes for 9.4 YPA with three touchdowns and no interceptions this year.

McBride is the top receiving option on this team, and he is likely to be an all-conference selection at tight end. He now has 13 receptions for 220 yards and caught all three of O’Brien’s touchdown passes. Dante Wright didn’t play against Fresno State in the opener, but he caught 10 passes for 146 yards against Wyoming and must be respected.


T&C's Apply, 21+, Only in CO

Any Steve Addazio team wants to establish the run, but that hasn’t been easy for Colorado State through its first two games. The Rams are averaging just 3.1 YPC, and those numbers go way down if you take out Centeio.

Running backs Ajon Vivens and Marcus McElroy Jr. have combined to carry the ball 50 times for just 143 yards, averaging 2.8 YPC.

This defense has done a great job of stopping the run, allowing just 2.5 YPC, but Colorado State has had a ton of trouble in the secondary. The Rams are allowing 9.8 YPA and 334.5 YPG through the air.

Betting Analysis - Broncos

  • 2020: 2-1 S/U, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 O/U

There is wide-ranging speculation as to the state of Boise State’s quarterbacks entering this week. On Sunday, Harsin said that he hoped to have Bachmeier, Sears, and Chase Cord available for this game, but he has been frustratingly mum as to specific issues.

Bachmeier has missed the last two games after lighting up Utah State in the opener. It has been rumored that he was out due to COVID-19, and if that’s the case, that puts him in line to start this week given the timetable for isolation and recovery. Sears probably won’t see action after suffering an apparent concussion last week, while Cord is a question mark since he hasn’t taken the field yet this season.

Top running back George Holani was injured against Air Force two weeks ago and sat out last week against Utah. Holani averaged 7.1 YPC in the opener, and he is considered questionable to return this week. If he can’t go, Andrew Van Buren will get the start once again. He is averaging 3.9 YPC through three games.

Khalil Shakir is the most dangerous receiver on the roster. He is responsible for nearly half of Boise State’s production in the passing game with 23 receptions for 352 yards and four touchdowns. Shakir has posted at least six receptions and 90 yards in each of the Broncos’ first three games.

This defense was gashed by BYU last week, and Boise State was ground up by Air Force the week before. The Broncos are really struggling at the second level, and McBride is going to be a tough match for anyone on the roster.

Historically Speaking

Head-to-Head

Colorado State has never defeated Boise State. These schools first met in 2011 when the Broncos joined the Mountain West, and they are 9-0 against the Rams since that point.

Boise State’s first five victories came by at least 12 points, but three of the Broncos’ last four wins have been decided by just one score.

Last Meeting - 2019 (Boise State 31 Colorado State 24)

Bachmeier didn’t suit up when these schools met last year, as Jaylon Henderson got the nod in his absence. Henderson completed 26 of 36 passes for 253 yards and two touchdowns as Boise State held on for a 31-24 win over Colorado State.

Neither team could run the ball well with both the Broncos and Rams being held to less than 100 yards, but Boise State didn’t turn the ball over and that proved key in their ninth straight win.

Notable Betting Trends

-- The under has cashed in 11 of Colorado State’s last 13 MWC games

-- Boise State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite

-- The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games between these teams

Colorado State-Boise State Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Colorado State 24, Boise State 20
  • Best Bet: Under 62.5


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