Oregon vs. Iowa State Predictions, Odds


  • January 2, 2021
  • By Jonathan Willis
  • VegasInsider.com

Matt Campbell has taken Iowa State to new heights during his time with the Cyclones. Campbell has now led this team to a bowl game in four of the last five seasons, and Iowa State will be playing in a major bowl for the first time ever when they face the Oregon Ducks in the Fiesta Bowl.

This is Iowa State’s first appearance in the Fiesta Bowl, while Oregon has been here twice before. The Ducks hammered Colorado 38-16 in the 2002 Fiesta Bowl and beat Kansas State 35-17 in the 2013 edition of this game.

Fiesta Bowl Betting Resources

Fiesta Bowl Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Iowa State -4
  • Money-Line: Iowa State -185 Oregon +165
  • Total: 58

Odds Subject to Change

How to Handicap Oregon vs. Iowa State

The Ducks started the 2020 season off well with double-digit wins over Stanford and Washington State, covering the number in both of those games. However, Oregon nearly fell at home to former coach Chip Kelly and UCLA in its third game. That was a sign of what was to come as the Ducks lost their first game of the season to rival Oregon State on Thanksgiving weekend, and that was followed up by a narrow loss to Cal.

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Oregon was not supposed to play in the Pac 12 Championship Game at 3-2, but the Ducks ended up taking Washington’s place after the Huskies had to bow out due to COVID. They were underdogs for the first time all season against USC, but they overcame the oddsmakers’ doubts to hand the Trojans their only loss of the year.

It was an ignominious start for Iowa State this season. The Cyclones lost to Louisiana in their first game, knocking them out of the Top 25. They squeaked past TCU in their next game before knocking off Oklahoma to show they were a team to be reckoned with in the Big 12. That helped Iowa State finish 8-1 in Big 12 play and earn a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Iowa State outgained Oklahoma in the title game, but the Sooners jumped on the Cyclones early and held on the rest of the way to pick up a 27-21 victory. Despite the loss, Iowa State’s body of work was strong enough that the team was selected to play in a New Year’s Six Bowl for the first time ever.

Betting Analysis – Oregon Ducks

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • 2020: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U

It was never going to be easy to replace NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner Justin Herbert. Oregon was short-handed coming into the year when future top five pick Penei Sewell decided to opt out of the season, so expectations were somewhat muted for the Ducks despite their recent success.

Tyler Shough was solid in his first year running this offense though. Shough beat out Boston College grad transfer Anthony Brown for the starting job and went on to complete 62.7 percent of his passes for 1,480 yards (9.4 YPA) with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. Shough was a constant run threat, picking up 263 yards (4.2 YPC) and making opposing defenses respect his legs.


Oregon has produced a 6-3 record both straight up and against the spread in its last nine postseason bowl games. (AP)

C.J. Verdell is questionable to play in this game after missing the Pac-12 Championship Game due to an injury. Verdell started the season strong with 100-yard performances against Stanford and Washington State, but he was bottled up in his last three games with just 27 carries for 62 yards and a score. Travis Dye has run well in this offense though, leading Oregon with 391 yards (7.0 YPC) and a touchdown.

Oregon’s defense allowed at least 21 points in each of its last five games. The Ducks gave up 27.3 PPG and 409.5 YPG in 2020, as both the run defense and the pass defense had issues. Defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux is a future first round pick though, and defensive back Mykael Wright was a First Team All-Pac 12 selection.

Betting Analysis - Iowa State Cyclones

  • 2020: 8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 O/U

Brock Purdy had his least successful season in Ames. He completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 2,594 yards (7.7 YPA) with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Purdy still managed to lead the Cyclones to their first conference championship game ever, but he threw three interceptions in the loss to Oklahoma. He was the second leading rusher on Iowa State this year with 343 yards (4.4 YPC) and four touchdowns.

The offense was paced by Breece Hall. Hall became just the second Iowa State player ever to be named Big 12 Offensive Player of the year, running for 1,436 yards (5.9 YPC) and 19 touchdowns. He ran for at least 100 yards in his first eight games of the 2020 season, but he was somewhat held in check over his last three games, failing to eclipse 100 yards or average more than 4.6 YPC.

Xavier Hutchinson led the Cyclones in receiving with 60 receptions for 726 yards and four touchdowns this season. Tight end Charlie Kolar was a red zone threat with 39 catches for 538 yards and six touchdowns. The only other player with more than 20 receptions was Hall, but three tight ends had at least 15 receptions in this offense.

Linebacker Mike Rose was named the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year and led Iowa State with 90 tackles and four interceptions this season. Rose led one of the top defenses in the country as the Cyclones allowed 21.8 PPG and 344.3 YPG. Iowa State was great at stopping the run, allowing 3.2 YPC and 105.9 YPG on the ground, but the pass defense was a little suspect.

Historically Speaking

Head-to-Head

This will be the first meeting between these two programs.

Notable Betting Trends

  • The 'under' is 7-1 in Iowa State’s last eight bowl games
  • Iowa State is 0-6 ATS in its last six neutral site games
  • Oregon is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against teams that are over .500

Fiesta Bowl Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Iowa State 33, Oregon 21
  • Best Bet: Iowa State -4

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