Notre Dame vs. FSU Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Sept. 5, 2021

Joe Williams
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. FSU Seminoles Predictions

Score Prediction - Notre Dame 30, Florida State 19

The Fighting Irish enter this season with a lot of questions. QB Ian Book has moved on, and they will hope to get the same kind of consistency out of Wisconsin graduate transfer QB Jack Coan. However, Coan wasn't nearly as effective for the Badgers, and Notre Dame has a makeshift offensive line which it needs to come together in a hurry. The good news is that Coan was a completions machine at Wisconsin in 2019, completing just shy of 70 percent of his passes. The bad news is that most of his passes were short or intermediate routes, and he isn't a great downfield threat.

Expect the Irish to have a ground and pound approach like we saw in 2020, perhaps even more so. However, as mentioned above, the O-line is a huge question mark, therefore it remains to be seen if RBs Chris Tyree and Kyren Williams will be nearly as effective as they were in 2020. Williams averaged 5.4 yards per attempt while gobbling up 1,061 yards and 12 touchdowns in 11 games, while Tyree was a nice change of pace guy with 480 rushing yards and four scores, averaging 7.1 yards per tote. If they can get anything near that kind of production, especially to start against Florida State, they're going to be in good shape. When Coan does throw, especially in the red zone, look for uber-talented TE Michael Mayer to be the apple of his eye.

For the Seminoles, they are banking on QB McKenzie Milton, formerly of UCF, to hopefully be close to his pre-injury form. He suffered a gruesome leg injury in 2018, and if the transfer can be anywhere his pre-injury self, head coach Mike Norvell has gotten himself a steal. Unfortunately for Milton, or anybody else under center, the offensive line is a work in progress. That means RBs Jashaun Corbin and Lawrance Toafili will have to fight for every inch. FSU has very little experience at the receiver positions, too, so it might be a sluggish start until this offense can jell together, if it can jell together.

On defense, FSU allowed 36.5 PPG and 6.5 yards per play a season ago, and that simply will not do. It will help you beat perhaps Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville or maybe Syracuse, but it won't be good enough in marquee games. And the Seminoles have plenty of them, starting with this one. The defense needs to be better, and all early indications are that it could be a slow go. Norvell used the transfer portal well, bringing in LB Cortez Andrews, DL Jermaine Johnson, DB Jarques McClellion, CB Brandon Moore, DB Jammie Robinson and DL Keir Thomas, but the returning players need to be much better, too.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. FSU Seminoles Best Bets

Notre Dame -280
Florida State +220
Notre Dame (-7.5) +100
Florida State (+7.5) -120
Over 54.5 (-110)
Under 54.5 (-110)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. FSU Seminoles Game Odds

Notre Dame -7.5
Under 54.5

Odds per BetMGM - Subject to Change

The home team has won three straight games between both schools, something Notre Dame will look to end. (AP)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. FSU Seminoles Betting Resources

Venue: Doak Campbell Stadium
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
TV-Time: ABC - 7:30 p.m. ET

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. FSU Seminoles Betting Analysis

So who do you trust? Looking at the line for the first time, I always make a face when I see a seven and a hook. It is, by far, my least favorite line when considering the favorite. That hook shouldn't be so important, but it is. A flat seven, or a six and a hook is so much more pleasing. However, in this particular instance, I don't think it comes into play, and eventually, Notre Dame finds a way to post a double-digit victory before the dust settles at The Doak. Plus, I get the warm and fuzzies when I see Notre Dame has cashed in eight straight as a single-digit favorite.

It is going to take some time to settle in. I expect Coan to be nervous, especially on the road in front of a hostile crowd. Florida State, with the chop, the music, etc. will have its fans pumped early on. But eventually, we'll start to see the holes in Florida State's defense, we'll see their inexperience on offense, and we'll find out a lot about Milton, and if that leg is sound. We'll also see if that Notre Dame run game can get its motor started early, despite the inadequacy of the offensive line. If they can find holes and take the pressure off of Coan, the margin of victory might even be much larger than predicted.

The best bet on the board is the UNDER. We have new quarterbacks settling in. Not only are they taking the reins as starter, but they're coming in from completely different schools. Yes, they've been there in the spring and summer practicing, but that first game is a big deal, and the nerves will be there. I expect to see a lower-scoring first quarter, and OVER bettors will be chasing for the rest of the evening.

This is the standalone game on a Sunday night, and there will be a lot of pressure. From what I've seen from Coan in the past at Wisconsin, I don't trust him as a big-time quarterback. And there are so many questions on Milton, don't expect to see a track meet in the first half. UNDER is the play for the game, and a first-half UNDER play is another good option.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. FSU Seminoles Betting Trends

Notre Dame has hit the OVER in six of the past eight as a favorite of seven or more points.
Notre Dame has covered eight straight as a single-digit favorite.
Florida State was 0-4 ATS in 2020 as an underdog of 13 or fewer points.
Florida State has hit the OVER in six of its past eight games overall, including vs. ND Oct. 10, 2020.
Florida State has cashed the OVER in three of its past four games at home.