Liberty Flames vs. Syracuse Orange Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Sept. 22, 2021

Eytan Shander
VI College Football Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

Not many teams outside of Liberty have claim for a top 25 bid, as they find themselves 3-0 yet looking from the outside-in. That may be enough motivation alone to handle Syracuse, but the Orange aren’t a doormat in this matchup by any means, despite coming in as a near-touchdown home dog. The difference will be Liberty QB Malik Willis building on last year’s 38-21 handling of Syracuse.

Score Prediction: Liberty 27, Syracuse 20

Best Bet: Liberty -6.5

Best Bet: Under 52.5

Liberty Flames vs. Syracuse Orange Predictions

Liberty was the better team last year and will be the better team this year. Even Liberty is better this year than they were last season, so this should really be a no-brainer. The thing about the line is how quickly Cuse can stay in the game or possibly turn the tide.

I wouldn’t take Cuse anywhere near the ML, but there’s something about this being down to six, after hovering around a touchdown. I don’t put a ton of stock into previous matchups, but the Flame return a lot of impact players from last year’s win – especially their QB. Don’t sleep on how improved Cuse is from last year’s loss, especially playing this one at home.

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Liberty Flames vs. Syracuse Orange Betting Odds

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Undefeated Liberty comes into the Carrier Dome as a 6-point road favorite, taking on a Syracuse team whose lone loss came to Rutgers.

The total at Syracuse now sits at 52.5 but opened at 55. Last year’s final between these two teams hit 59 total points.

Liberty Flames vs. Syracuse Orange Betting Resources

Matchup: Independent vs. ACC
Date: Friday, September 24, 2021
Venue: Carrier Dome
Location: Syracuse, New York
TV-Time: ACCN - 8:00 p.m. ET

Liberty Flames Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 3-0
ATS: 3-0
O/U: 1-2
ATS - Home: 2-0
ATS - Away: 1-0

There may not be many – if any – exploitable weaknesses with this Flame team. A huge problem for Syracuse is how little Liberty turns over the football. The Cuse pass rush may apply more pressure this year than last, but if it doesn’t generate a single turnover, it just delays an inevitable loss.

I do think Cuse has enough in the tank to keep it close, or at least a backdoor cover. Liberty isn’t out to prove anything more than they belong in the top-25, so putting a team out in the first half or three quarters may be enough. It’s also enough for Cuse to climb in the back window and cover that spread.

Syracuse Orange Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 2-1
ATS: 2-1
O/U: 1-2
ATS - Home: 1-1
ATS - Away: 1-0

The best thing going for Syracuse this year is how improved they are from last season. While Liberty is pretty much the same problem for teams, Cuse may still catch a team or two off guard. Unfortunately, the talent gap between these two teams hasn’t truly been narrowed. If Cuse can continue to generate pressure from their pass rush, they may be able to cause problems for Willis.

The Liberty Flames have covered the spread in five straight road games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Liberty Flames

Record: 3-0
VI Ranking: 18
Points Scored: 114
Points Allowed: 37
PS/G: 38 (36th)
PA/G: 12.3 (12th)

Inside the Stats - Syracuse Orange

Record: 2-1
VI Ranking: 71
Points Scored: 98
Points Allowed: 50
PS/G: 32.7 (54th)
PA/G: 16.7 (30th)

Key Players to Watch

LIB: Malik Willis - QB (49/69, 613 yards, 7 TD)
LIB: Demario Douglas - WR (16 catches, 185 yards, 2 TD)
SYR: Sean Tucker - RB (51 carries 515 combined yards, 7 total TD)

Injuries

SYR: Taj Harris - WR (Undisclosed-Questionable)
SYR: Luke Benson - TE (Undisclosed-Questionable)
LIB: Frank Boyd - RB (Undisclosed-Questionable)
LIB: Bryce Matthews - OL (Knee-Questionable)
LIB: John Kourtis - OL (Undisclosed-Questionable)
LIB: Khaled Coleman - WR (Undisclosed-Questionable)
LIB: Marcus Haskins - DB (Hamstring-Questionable)

Liberty Flames vs. Syracuse Orange Betting Conclusion

This really comes down to how good Liberty is, not only on the field but ATS. They are 11-0 ATS dating back to last season, and this won’t stop simply because they are on the road.

Liberty had a quality win against Troy and have a legit pass rush to compliment how little they turn over the ball. While they too are unranked, Liberty has seen the under hit against four of their last five unranked opponents.