Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Oct. 2, 2021

Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

Florida has dominated Kentucky over the last 34 years. The Gators have won 33 of their last 34 meetings with the Wildcats, and the lone exception was in 2018 when Kentucky beat Florida 27-16 in Dan Mullen’s first season in Gainesville. Kentucky hasn’t knocked off Florida in Lexington since 1986, and Mark Stoops is out to end that streak on Saturday.

Score Prediction: Florida 38, Kentucky 23

Best Bet: Florida -7.5

Best Bet: Over 55.5

Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats Predictions

Kentucky is unbeaten entering this game, but Florida will be too much for the Wildcats to handle. The Gators were able to rest some of their best players last week against Tennessee, and they should have Anthony Richardson, Kaiir Elam, and multiple starters along the offensive line healthy again this week.

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Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats Betting Odds

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Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats Betting Resources

Matchup: SEC
Date: Saturday, October 2, 2021
Venue: Kroger Field
Location: Lexington, Kentucky
TV-Time: ESPN - 6:00 p.m. ET

Florida Gators Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 3-1
ATS: 2-2
O/U: 1-2-1
ATS - Home: 2-1
ATS - Away: 0-1

Fans aren’t happy with Emory Jones and want to see more of dazzling young signal caller Anthony Richardson. Jones has played relatively well while Richardson matures though. He leads the Gators with 376 rushing yards (6.6 YPC), and he is coming off his best passing performance of the season against Tennessee last week.

Richardson is expected to see some action against the Wildcats after missing the last two weeks with a hamstring injury. His explosiveness cannot be understated as he has accounted for 467 yards and four scores on 11 passes and 11 runs.

This offense doesn’t have the same playmakers at tight end and receiver it did last year, but Jacob Copeland has been a big play threat. Mullen does a good job of picking his spots with the deep ball, punishing teams with the RPO.

Kentucky Wildcats Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 4-0
ATS: 3-1
O/U: 3-1
ATS - Home: 2-1
ATS - Away: 1-0

The Wildcats received some good news on Tuesday. Six players had been barred from practice on charges of first-degree burglary, but a grand jury declined to indict them. That cleared the players to return to the team, and Kentucky might have some of those contributors suit up on Saturday.

Penn State transfer Will Levis has solid overall numbers for the Wildcats this season. However, he has not looked sharp in two SEC games. Levis completed 25 of 40 passes for 281 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in wins over Missouri and South Carolina, and Florida’s defense is even better. The Gators rank 23rd in Defensive SP+.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Wandale Robinson are the two skill position players to watch. Rodriguez is averaging 6.0 YPC and carried the load in the two conference wins, as he is a bruiser that keeps things between the tackles. Robinson is one of the team’s two threats in the passing game and had three straight 100-yard receiving games before last week.

The Kentucky Wildcats have gone OVER the point total in four of their last six games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Florida Gators

Record: 3-1
VI Ranking: 12
Points Scored: 144
Points Allowed: 79
PS/G: 36 (34th)
PA/G: 19.8 (45th)

Inside the Stats - Kentucky Wildcats

Record: 4-0
VI Ranking: 29
Points Scored: 124
Points Allowed: 71
PS/G: 31 (60th)
PA/G: 17.8 (29th)

Key Players to Watch

UF: Emory Jones - QB (69/103, 667 yards, 7 Total TD, 5 INT)
UF: Jacob Copeland - WR (10 catches, 232 yards, 2 TD)
UK: Will Levis - QB (66/101, 902 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT)
UK: Christopher Rodriguez, Jr. - RB (85 carries, 521 yards, 5 Total TD)

Injuries

UK: Earnest Sanders IV - WR (Legal-Questionable)
UK: JuTahn McClain - RB (Legal-Questionable)
UK: Travis Tisdale - RB (Legal-Questionable)
UF: Jaydon Hill - DB (ACL-Out)
UF: Anthony Richardson - QB (Hamstring-Probable)
UF: Jean DeLance - OL (Leg-Questionable)
UF: Kaiir Elam - DB (Undisclosed-Probable)
UF: Ventrell Miller - LB (Biceps-Out)

Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats Betting Conclusion

Florida should be able to beat Kentucky by double digits on Saturday evening. Mullen has not shown a lot in the Gators’ three wins this season, instead saving a lot of his wrinkles for tough SEC games like this one.

Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats Betting Trends

Kentucky has covered the spread in four of its last six games.
Kentucky has won five straight home games.
Florida has covered the spread in five of its last seven games when playing in Lexington.
Florida has gone OVER the point total in 13 of its last 17 road games.
Florida has won 15 of its last 20 games.