Indiana Hoosiers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Oct. 2, 2021

Eytan Shander
VI College Football Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

Last year’s Penn State clash with Indiana ended in OT controversy with the Hoosiers sealing victory in the final seconds. Indiana (2-2) heads to Beaver Stadium for a Saturday evening showdown. The two teams will kick off at 7:30p.m. ET on ABC.

Score Prediction: Penn State 42, Indiana 17

Best Bet: Over 53.5

Best Bet: Penn State -12.5

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Predictions

Maybe if both teams were closer in record and talent this year, it would be easier to sell a “revenge” game for Penn State. In this case, it’s more a matter of reinforcing dominance over the Hoosiers. Either way the result remains the same, PSU’s defense is on a major roll and IU is a far cry from the magic they produced last year.

Sean Clifford comes off a career high in passing yards against a Villanova team that isn’t terrible on defense. Indiana just cant get their offense going, and relies on longer drives sustained by their running game.

There’s also the tangible chance Penn State can win the Big Ten this year, beating OSU on the way. They have shown zero signs of a letdown and have some motivation from last year’s defeat. As good as Clifford has been, Michael Penix Jr. is lacking the spark from the previous year. IU will be lucky to hang around in the first half, let alone the game.

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Indiana Hoosiers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Odds

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Penn State (4-0) is a 12.5-point home favorite against Indiana (2-2). PSU is 3-1 ATS while IU is 1-4 ATS.

The total for this game is 53.5 points. In three games so far at Beaver Stadium the average PPG is 53.3.

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Resources

Matchup: Big 10
Date: Saturday, October 2, 2021
Venue: Beaver Stadium
Location: University Park, Pennsylvania
TV-Time: ABC - 7:30 p.m. ET

Indiana Hoosiers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 2-2
ATS: 1-3
O/U: 3-1
ATS - Home: 1-1
ATS - Away: 0-2

The Hoosiers have little chance of pulling off the upset, from talent gap to the difficulty of location. Teams that struggle like IU don’t waltz into Beaver Stadium and hand out L's. This feels like a tune-up game for PSU with IU playing the role of bait. Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, there’s really no area of their team that has an advantage over Penn State. They don’t have any defensive answer for Clifford, nor can they slow down the rushing attack.

Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 4-0
ATS: 3-1
O/U: 1-3
ATS - Home: 2-1
ATS - Away: 1-0

Penn State’s defense has played a huge role so far in their early season success. Expect that to be a big factor on Saturday night. The betting angle factors in the higher probability of an IU turnover, which leads to immediate points or shorter fields. As confident as I am in the Nittany Lions offense, their defense will be aggressive and opportunistic. That crowd will be going nuts as the student section will want blood from last year’s ending. PSU might put up a big number on IU just to appease the fans.

The Penn State Nittany Lions have gone OVER the point total in four of their last six home games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Indiana Hoosiers

Record: 2-2
VI Ranking: 51
Points Scored: 119
Points Allowed: 117
PS/G: 29.8 (66th)
PA/G: 29.2 (94th)

Inside the Stats - Penn State Nittany Lions

Record: 4-0
VI Ranking: 10
Points Scored: 126
Points Allowed: 60
PS/G: 31.5 (57th)
PA/G: 15 (12th)

Key Players to Watch

IND: Michael Penix, Jr. - QB (77/140, 821 yards, 4 TD, 6 INT)
IND: Ty Fryfogle - WR (21 ctaches, 224 yards, TD)
PSU: Sean Clifford - QB (86/120, 1,158 yards, 8 TD, 2 INT)
PSU: Jahan Dotson - WR (27 catches, 362 yards, 4 TD)

Injuries

PSU: Keaton Ellis - CB (Undisclosed-Questionable)
PSU: Sal Wormley - OL (Undisclosed-Questionable)
PSU: Adisa Isaac - DE (Undisclosed-Questionable)
PSU: Hakeem Beamon - DE (Undisclosed-Questionable)
IU: D.J. Matthews - WR (Knee-Out)
IU: James Head, Jr. - DL (Undisclosed-Questionable)
IU: Jaylin Williams - DB (Concussion-Questionable)
IU: David Ellis - WR (Left Team-Probable)
IU: Christopher Keys - DB (Knee-Out)

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Conclusion

Lay the points. There are way too many factors in PSU’s favor to ignore – mainly how off IU is from last year. PSU is 3-1 ATS covering games in 7 of their last 8.

They appear to have the best opportunity to beat OSU since James Franklin took over, and they certainly aren’t going to be beat by the Hoosiers. Any other 2-2 team in the Big Ten would have an argument for a look-ahead upset. But there’s built in motivation for Penn State to avenge last year’s defeat. PSU covers and does the majority of damage to hit the over.

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Trends

Penn State has won five straight home games when facing Indiana.
Penn State has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 15 games when facing Indiana.
Indiana has covered the spread in nine of its last 13 games.
Indiana has gone OVER the point total in 12 straigh road games.