Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

8 minute read

Oct. 7, 2021

Thom Cunningham
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

A Sun Belt showdown in the Bear State is one of two college football games on Thursday night. The Arkansas State Red Wolves host the ranked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers from Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas. The game is set to air on ESPNU at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Score Prediction: Coastal Carolina 52, Arkansas State 23

Best Bet: Coastal Carolina -19

Best Bet: Over 72.5

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Predictions

The markets in this game are a bit dicey, mainly because Chanticleer quarterback Grayson McCall might not even play the whole game. He is nursing an ankle injury but is listed as probable. However, the high -19-point spread is dangerous if the Chanticleers decide to take out McCall following a sizeable lead. A backdoor cover is very possible in this situation - so wager cautiously here. The point total might be a better market to consider if buying the above theory.

If Coastal takes McCall out after a big lead and the Red Wolves back door cover, it's more than likely going to see the total go OVER a high 72.5. The point total is very high because Coastal Carolina averages about 50 points per game (48.2 ranks second nationally), while the Arkansas State defense ranks 129th nationally (out of 130 schools) in points allowed per game with 45.6

It's unlikely the Chanticleers struggle on offense, even if McCall has to sit in favor of backups Bryce Carpenter or Jarrett Guest. The trends also support the point total going OVER a very high 72.5 - as Coastal Carolina has gone OVER the point total in 16 of its last 24 road games. The Chanticleers have also gone OVER the point total in five of seven games overall.

It's unlikely Arkansas State will reach its season average of 32 points in this game, as Coastal Carolina only allows 14 points per game which ranks seventh nationally. Assuming Arkansas State can score at least 20 points while Coastal Carolina covers a high -19-point spread, then the point total should go OVER based on that formula. Also consider the combined O/U record for these two schools is 6-4 on the season.

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Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Odds

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Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Resources

Matchup: Sun Belt
Date: Thursday, October 7, 2021
Venue: Centennial Bank Stadium
Location: Jonesboro, Arkansas
TV-Time: ESPNU - 7:30 p.m. ET

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 5-0
ATS: 3-1-1
O/U: 3-2
ATS - Home: 3-0-1
ATS - Away: 0-1

Betting this game comes down to the conviction one has in the playing status of McCall, so let's assume he is playing a majority of the game. The College Football Playoff seems to be wide open at the moment, so let's go with the thought that the Chanticleers want to win with style-points and blow out the Red Wolves therefore will push McCall as far as his ankle will go.

He is completing a ridiculously high 80.2% of his passes with 10 total touchdowns and only one interception, the main catalyst for the second-best offense in the nation. Two receivers compliment a very dangerous passing attack in Jaivon Heiligh and Isaiah Likely, each with four touchdowns on the year.

Reese White and Shermani Jones have had productive seasons thus far, but Jones is listed as probable due to an undisclosed reason. Either way, White is the main threat for Coastal's ground attack as he averages 7.1 yards per carry with six touchdowns on the ground. He is not the pass-catching back however - which goes to Braydon Bennett.

Bennett averages over eight yards per carry with four rushing touchdowns, but leads the backfield with 10 catches and 116 receiving yards. Still, the passing attack is the main threat for this Chanticleer offense, which has seen eight different players catch a touchdown pass. The defense is also a legit threat, only allowing 14 points per game.

Despite the low point allowance, there aren't many takeaways recorded from Coastal's defense this season. The Chanticleers only have one interception and zero fumble recoveries. The sack total is somewhat high, as Josaiah Stewart, Teddy Gallagher and Jeffrey Gunter will look to extend their totals as the team's top pass rushers.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 1-4
ATS: 3-2
O/U: 3-2
ATS - Home: 2-0
ATS - Away: 1-2

The offense hasn't been bad, but the defense has - allowing a woeful 45.6 points per game. Expect the Red Wolves defense to give up close to 50 points on Thursday night. Central Arkansas scored 21 points on Arkansas State which was the fewest allowed by the Red Wolves this season. Since that Week 1 game, the Red Wolves have allowed at least 41 points or more in four straight games - three of the four games Arkansas State has allowed at least 52 points.

Arkansas State has scored 40 and 50 points in both home games this season, adding a bit more conviction to the point total market going OVER. The Red Wolves have seen 15 total aerial touchdowns from quarterbacks James Blackman and Layne Hatcher, while they also feature three wide receivers with over 300 yards.

Corey Rucker leads the team with 28 catches, 458 yards and six touchdowns while both Jeff Foreman and Te'Vailance Hunt have a pair of touchdowns to go along with over 300 yards. Dahu Green also has two touchdowns on 139 yards, but the rushing attack for Arkansas State hasn't been the best - ultimately the weak link in keeping pace with Coastal Carolina's offense on Thursday.

Arkansas State does have an advantage on defense, surprisingly. The Red Wolves have more takeaways than the Chanticleers, with five interceptions and two fumble recoveries. Elery Alexander is responsible for two of those takeaways, with an interception and fumble recovery - along with forcing one. Jarius Reimoneng is also a name to watch with an interception to go along with a team-high four pass deflections.

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have gone OVER the point total in 16 of their last 24 road games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Record: 5-0
VI Ranking: 13
Points Scored: 183
Points Allowed: 75
PS/G: 36.6 (24th)
PA/G: 15 (10th)

Inside the Stats - Arkansas State Red Wolves

Record: 1-4
VI Ranking: 117
Points Scored: 160
Points Allowed: 228
PS/G: 32 (55th)
PA/G: 45.6 (129th)

Key Players to Watch

CC: Grayson McCall - QB (69/86, 1,113 yards, 10 TD, INT)
CC: Jaivon Heiligh - WR (24 carries, 499 yards, 4 TD)
ARST: Corey Rucker - WR (28 catches, 458 yards, 6 TD)
ARST: Jeff Foreman - WR (22 catches, 355 yards, 2 TD)

Injuries

CC: Massimo Biscardi - K (Lower Body-Probable)
CC: Grayson McCall - QB (Ankle-Probable)
CC: Shermani Jones - RB (Undisclosed-Probable)

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Conclusion

This is a difficult game to wager on with McCall's injury status, the high spread and the high point total. Many trends point to Coastal Carolina covering a high scoring affair. Coastal has covered the spread in 10 of its last 15 games, along with covering the spread in seven of its last eight road games. Arkansas State has won eight of 11 at home, three of four against Coastal and covered in seven of nine when playing in Jonesboro.

So if rubbish on the spread, then consider the point total instead. The point total has gone OVER in five of the last seven games for Coastal Carolina, as the Chanticleers have also gone OVER in 16 of 24 on the road. Add that with the Chanticleers averaging 48 points per game and the Red Wolves allowing 45.6 while scoring 32, there is a case to be made that the point total market is actually the smarter play over the spread market.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Trends

Coastal Carolina has covered the spread in seven of its last nine road games.
Arkansas State has won three of its last four games when facing Coastal Carolina.
Coastal Carolina has gone OVER the point total in five of its last seven games.
Arkansas State has won eight of its last 11 home games.