Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Louisiana Ragin Cajuns Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Oct. 12, 2021

Thom Cunningham
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

An early Tuesday night Sun Belt showdown is set for Week 7 of college football as the Appalachian State Mountaineers travel to Lafayette, Louisiana to take on the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns. Kick off from Cajun Field is set for 7:30 p.m. ET and will air on ESPN2.

Score Prediction: Appalachian State 28, Louisiana 24

Best Bet: Under

Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Louisiana Ragin Cajuns Predictions

The spread feels like a trap, opening at -3.5 but now moving to -5 in favor of the Mountaineers. That is a tough spread on the road against a good Louisiana team with playmaking quarterback Levi Lewis. The trends seem to favor the point total market over the spread as well, as a certain SU trend makes the entire ATS market murky at best.

App State's spread might be one to ignore, as the underdog has covered four of the last five games between both schools. Also, App State has failed to cover 12 of its last 18 games. There isn't much conviction in the Ragin Cajuns to cover however, as Louisiana is 1-4 on the ATS this season along with failing to cover five of seven at home. However, the Ragin Cajuns have won eight of nine games SU when playing in Lafayette. So the Cajuns win at home, it seems, but don't cover (so obviously they were favorites at home a lot).

There is a lot of failure in the spread market, along with a SU trend supporting the Cajuns, to fully justify this market. The point total seems to be much more transparent when looking at some trends. Louisiana has gone UNDER the point total in four of five games overall, while also going UNDER the total in a remarkable nine of 10 home games.

The point total going UNDER has also hit in four of the last five meetings, so there is a lot of merit in the UNDER selection here. Neither school allows 23 points or more per game, so the thought that the winning school won't touch 31 has some merit. 54.5 is a bit low for my liking to be honest, but the smart odds point to the UNDER as the best bet. Both schools have recent failure with the ATS while the home underdog has only lost at home once over the last nine games. If you're bold or have house money to play with, Louisiana ML isn't a bad play by any means.

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Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Louisiana Ragin Cajuns Betting Odds

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Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Louisiana Ragin Cajuns Betting Resources

Matchup: Sun Belt
Date: Tuesday, October 12, 2021
Venue: Cajun Field
Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
TV-Time: ESPN2 - 7:30 p.m. ET

Appalachian State Mountaineers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 4-1
ATS: 3-2
O/U: 3-2
ATS - Home: 1-2
ATS - Away: 2-0

Big news for App State is that running back Camerun Peoples has been upgraded to probable after missing last week's game due to undisclosed reasons. Peoples is a touchdown machine, scoring eight times and doesn't even lead the team in carries. That belongs to Nate Noel who is also averaging 6.4 yards per carry. Noel is questionable, so the status for App State's backfield is going to be crucial before kick off.

App State doesn't have a running back that stands out in the passing attack, but there are plenty of productive wide receivers for quarterback Chase Brice to spread the ball to. Corey Sutton is the team's leader in receptions and tied with Malik Williams for touchdowns with three. Thomas Hennigan rounds out the top three receivers that all average 14.2 or more yards per catch.

That's not even mentioning the ability Christian Wells has to make big plays. The defense is also respectable, with five interceptions, three forced fumbles and 14.5 total sacks. D'Marco Jackson is the stand out player for this Mountaineer defense, leading the team with four sacks to go along with 54 total tackles - 10 of which for a loss - and an interception.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 4-1
ATS: 1-4
O/U: 1-4
ATS - Home: 1-1
ATS - Away: 0-3

Levi Lewis is the name to watch for this Ragin Cajun team, the quarterback and leader for this Louisiana offense. He is playing very well, with a 62.7% completion percentage and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 7:1. The big plays aren't there, however, as Louisiana's offense is not as explosive as it was a year ago - Lewis only averaging 7.3 yards per completion.

The team also doesn't have a 200-yard receiver yet, and only four receivers with over 100 yards despite at least 14 different players catching passes through the air for Louisiana this season. The 8-1 SU record at home is impressive, but going against a dangerous team in App State will be a large hill to climb if this offense can't create big plays more frequently.

Dontae Fleming leads the team in receiving yards while John Stephens, Jr. leads the team in receiving touchdowns - 166 and three respectively, which are very low totals to lead any team in receiving stats. The running game doesn't balance out the lack of big plays through the air either, although there is a consistent and balanced attack between Lewis, Chris Smith, Montrell Johnson and Emani Bailey.

The secondary isn't too bad for this defense either, as the team only has two interceptions but 18 total pass deflections. With only once fumble recovery though, the Louisiana defense has the same problem as the offense. Although the players are there to compete, they lack consistent big plays to keep up with a high-tempo team as shown against Texas.

This might be similar against Appalachian State, who averages the 30-most points per game in the entire country, while also allowing the 30-fewest amount of points per game. Although the talent is there for Louisiana, it might be safe to say the firepower isn't. That can absolutely turn on a shortened week however, especially playing a prime-time home game on a Tuesday.

The underdog has covered the spread in four of the last five games played between Louisiana and Appalachian State. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Appalachian State Mountaineers

Record: 4-1
VI Ranking: 25
Points Scored: 176
Points Allowed: 100
PS/G: 35.2 (30th)
PA/G: 20 (30th)

Inside the Stats - Louisiana Ragin Cajuns

Record: 4-1
VI Ranking: 40
Points Scored: 142
Points Allowed: 114
PS/G: 28.4 (70th)
PA/G: 22.8 (50th)

Key Players to Watch

APP: Chase Brice - QB (104/153, 1,360 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT)
APP: Corey Sutton - WR (32 catches, 473 yards, 3 TD)
ULL: Levi Lewis - QB (94/150, 1,096 yards, 7 TD, INT)
ULL: Montrell Johnson - (45 carries, 232 yards, 4 TD)

Injuries

APP: Daetrich Harrington - RB (Undisclosed-Questionable)
APP: Nate Noel - RB (Toe-Questionable)

ULL: Carlos Rubio - OL (Body-Questionable)

ULL: Andre Landry - DL (Undisclosed-Out)

ULL: Kenneth Almendares - K (Hip-Out)

ULL: Jax Harrington - OL (Undisclosed-Out)

ULL: Da'Jon Bonnee - WR (Lower Body-Questionable)

ULL: Tito Bryce - WR (Upper Body-Questionable)

Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Louisiana Ragin Cajuns Betting Conclusion

I do think App State is the better team and will win this game, as Louisiana lacks explosive play-making ability despite the roster to compete and even win this game. However, the trends show that both schools aren't great against the spread while App State is too expensive for a pregame ML play. Louisiana has also won 11 of 12 games overall (loss to Texas) and eight of nine at home, so it's not like they can't win this game.

There's also uncertainty in the running back situation for App State, as Daetrich Harrington is another running back on the App State injury report entering Tuesday's game. With all the uncertainty, I recommend playing the odds with the UNDER. It has hit in four of five for Louisiana, it has hit in four of five meetings and it has hit in nine of 10 for Louisiana when playing at Cajun Field.