Kentucky Wildcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

Oct. 16, 2021

Thom Cunningham
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

A huge SEC showdown is set for Saturday afternoon as the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs take on the Kentucky Wildcats in a battle of undefeated Top 15 schools. Kick off is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and will air on CBS from Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia.

Score Prediction

Georgia 28, Kentucky 17

Best Bet

Kentucky +23

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs Predictions

This is a very difficult game to bet, as the large three-plus touchdown spread is the most sensible bet based on just how large the spread is. Let's begin with the point total market first, trends crossing in every direction. Kentucky has gone UNDER the point total in four of six games when facing Georgia, along with five of six on the road. However, Kentucky has gone OVER in four of six games, while Georgia has gone OVER in five of six when playing in Athens.

The point total trends are all over the place, as the amount of points each team scores and allows per game should see a point total right around 45 - which oddsmakers are dead on. Avoid this market if possible and go to the spread, which doesn't have much better conviction other than a large 23-points given to Kentucky.

Kentucky has covered two straight games when facing Georgia, but has failed to cover the spread in six of nine games when playing in Sanford Stadium. As shown against Arkansas, that venue is without a doubt a factor for opposing teams. Kentucky has covered the spread in six straight games when facing an AP-ranked school in October. There is just too much contradiction in the betting trends to fully invest in any of them. Cases can be made for either side, so play the large odds and take a large spread that the underdog should be able to cover - especially if the Wildcat defense shows up.

If uneasy on Kentucky covering a large spread against the top team in the country, then perhaps try the OVER. Despite contradicting trends, the combined O/U record for these schools stands at 7-5, slightly favoring the OVER. Kentucky won't score more than 17 points in this game, so if the Wildcats score anything less than that then the Bulldogs will need to eclipse 30. Despite popular opinion of the Bulldog offense, that's a number they can easily touch if the defense sets them up for great field possession.

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Kentucky Wildcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Odds

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Kentucky Wildcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Resources

Matchup: SEC
Date: Saturday, October 17, 2021
Venue: Sanford Stadium
Location: Athens, Georgia
TV-Time: CBS - 3:30 p.m. ET

Kentucky Wildcats Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 6-0
ATS: 5-1
O/U: 4-2
ATS - Home: 4-1
ATS - Away: 1-0

Kentucky will need quarterback Will Levis to play with much more courage and conviction than his counterpart at Arkansas did. The Razorback offensive line was over-matched which resulted in pressuring the quarterback into fast decisions. Levis will need to know where he is going with the ball before the play starts, read and point out the blitz pre-snap, etc... In layman's terms, Levis will need to beat the Georgia defensive line mentally as well as physically.

It won't be easy, but he has done a decent job of protecting the football this season with an 11:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Christopher Rodriguez, Jr. will have to continue running the ball well, but his lack of play making in the receiving game will hurt the Kentucky offense when the Bulldog blitzes come frequently. Look for Kentucky to get Wan'Dale Robinson involved as the leading receiver for this offense that averages 30 points per game.

Robinson had over 500 yards through the air to go with four touchdowns, but Josh Ali and Isaiah Epps will need to step up against a defense that is only allowing an eye-opening 5.5 points per game. The issue there is that Ali was downgraded to doubtful with a knee injury, not good news for Kentucky. The defense has been quietly good, only allowing 17.5 points per game which ranks 20th in the nation.

The takeaways haven't really been there for Kentucky this season, only four total but the play maker for this defense is J.J. Weaver. Weaver leads the team in sacks with four while also recording an interception and a forced fumble.

Georgia Bulldogs Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 6-0
ATS: 5-1
O/U: 3-3
ATS - Home: 2-1
ATS - Away: 3-0

Georgia's numbers are quite impressive, as the 5.5 points allowed per game obviously ranks first nationally while they also average nearly 40 points per game at 39.8 which ranks 12th. Yes, Georgia has beaten sluggish teams for the most part but the home win against Arkansas shows that the defense and offense are both legit in this year's run.

The switch at quarterback to Stetson Bennett has given the Bulldogs a much more versatile weapon at the position. He is a better mover than J.T. Daniels with 7.9 yards per carry and over 125 rushing yards this season. Daniels does have a better completion percentage, but Bennett's passes average more yards per throw (12.0 to Daniel's 8.0) while still maintaining a completion percentage right around 70% (69.4%).

The chatter of Georgia's offense being sluggish this season certainly hasn't been the case since Bennett took over, not to mention a lethal rushing attack from Zamir White, James Cook, Kendall Milton and Kenny McIntosh - all averaging 4.4 yards or more per carry and each with at least one touchdown.

While White and Milton see most of the carries, it's Cook and McIntosh who provide the receiving threat out of the backfield. Brock Bowers is the main threat through the air for UGA though, with over 300 yards and four tocuhdowns while averaging 15.8 yards per catch. Believe it or not, that's actually not the team-high as Ladd McConkey averages 17.5 yards per catch on his 16 receptions this season.

Jermaine Burton and Adonai Mitchel will need to be kept in check from Kentucky's defense as well, but it's very obvious that this 'struggling' UGA offense is doing just fine with multiple weapons. The defense speaks for itself. Seven interceptions has been recorded by this secondary, not to mention taking two back for touchdowns.

The fumble recoveries have surprisingly been lacking, with only one recorded this season. Adam Anderson leads the team in sacks with 4.5, while Nakobe Dean has 3.5 to go along with an interception. At least 10 different players have seen a sack for this defense, while six players have recorded an interception. Much like the offense, the talent is far spread and wide with plenty of play makers. It's hard for either side of Georgia's team to struggle consistently because there are so many players who can step in for any player struggling in a given game.

The Georgia Bulldogs have covered the spread in six of their last nine home games when facing the Kentucky Wildcats. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Kentucky Wildcats

Record: 6-0
VI Ranking: 8
Points Scored: 186
Points Allowed: 105
PS/G: 31 (55th)
PA/G: 17.5 (20th)

Inside the Stats - Georgia Bulldogs

Record: 6-0
VI Ranking: 1
Points Scored: 239
Points Allowed: 33
PS/G: 39.8 (12th)
PA/G: 5.5 (1st)

Key Players to Watch

UK: Will Levis - QB (87/135, 1,134 yards, 11 TD, 6 INT)
UK: Christopher Rodriguez, Jr. - RB (120 carries, 767 yards, 8 Total TDs)
UGA: Stetson Bennett - QB (43/62, 746 yards, 8 TD, 2 INT)
UGA: Zamir White - RB (71 carries, 354 yards, 6 TD)

Injuries

UK: Josh Ali - WR (Knee-Doubtful)
UK: Marquan McCall - DL (Lower Body-Out)
UK: Octavious Oxendine - DT (Leg-Out)
UK: Dekel Crowdus - WR (Undisclosed-Out)

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Conclusion

This is a difficult game to pregame wager on, as I don't mind a live bet especially with the point total. The trends are too inconsistent to trust for either market, so go with the large spread between two good offenses and defenses or go with your gut. 23 points is a lot for any team, let alone against a team that averages over 30 points per game while only allowing 17.5.

We saw something similar last week against Arkansas, where Georgia routed a team with similarly impressive numbers on both sides of the football. There are two big difference however, one being an experienced quarterback is now playing as opposed to a young one playing his first huge road game ever. Also, the spread is much larger.

It's unclear for me how many points Kentucky can muster up in this one, also missing a top receiver. Regardless, it's unlikely Kentucky allows over 31 points while failing to score 10 on its own end. A 31-10 final for the Bulldogs would see the Wildcats cover an insanely large spread, so I'm ditching all the trends and going with the underdog covering a three-plus touchdown spread based on the numbers each school averages on offense and defense.