Auburn Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Nov. 6, 2021

Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

SEC action is set for Saturday as the Texas A&M Aggies host the Auburn Tigers in a Top 15 battle. Kick off is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and will air on CBS from Kyle Field in College Station, Texas.

Score Prediction

Texas A&M 27, Auburn 20

Best Bet

Under

Texas A&M -4.5

Auburn Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies Predictions

Both the Auburn Tigers and Texas A&M Aggies have legitimate hopes to win the SEC West. Auburn is the only team in the division aside from Alabama with just one conference loss, and Texas A&M was the only team to knock off the Crimson Tide so far this season. The winner of this game will be in position to claim the SEC West if Alabama were to stumble again, while the loser would find it hard to climb out of the hole.

Jimbo Fisher has shown that he is a quarterback whisperer as we have seen Zach Calzada emerge as a competent signal caller after Haynes King was injured against Colorado. Calzada has led the Aggies to three straight wins, including an upset win over Alabama, and he will do enough to beat Auburn on Saturday in College Station.

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Auburn Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies Betting Odds

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Auburn Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies Betting Resources

Matchup: SEC
Date: Saturday, November 6, 2021
Venue: Kyle Field
Location: College Station, Texas
TV-Time: CBS - 3:30 p.m. ET

Auburn Tigers Deacons Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 6-2
ATS: 5-3
O/U: 4-4
ATS - Home: 3-2
ATS - Away: 2-1

The Tigers haven’t been great on offense in Bryan Harsin’s first year at the helm. Auburn ranks 34th in Offensive SP+, but the team has moved the ball well enough to be 6-2 headed into Saturday.

Bo Nix has been a steady hand, even if he was pulled for LSU transfer T.J. Finley at more than one point this season. Nix is completing over 62% of his passes or 7.3 YPA with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. He has been sharp in his last two games, leading the Tigers past Arkansas and Ole Miss, and some fans believe he has turned the corner.

Tank Bigsby had his best game of the season last week against Ole Miss. Bigsby carried the ball 23 times for 140 yards and a touchdown, recording his fourth 100-yard game of the season. He has yet to fumble in more than 260 collegiate carries, and he can wear down opponents, but he has yet to carry the ball more than 23 times in a game this season.

Auburn’s defense ranks 16th in Defensive SP+. The Tigers have done a good job stopping the run, allowing just 3.5 YPC. However, they haven’t been as fortunate against the pass. Opponents are averaging 7.5 YPA against this secondary, and a healthy Matt Corral could have really punished them over the top last week.

Texas A&M Aggies Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 6-2
ATS: 5-3
O/U: 3-5
ATS - Home: 4-1
ATS - Away: 1-2

Calzada showed that he could run this offense well in Texas A&M’s victory against Alabama last month. Calzada completed 21 of 31 passes for 285 yards with three touchdowns and an interception in that game, and it was his strongest performance of the season.

He hasn’t shown much these last few weeks, but the Aggies haven’t needed to open up the playbook in wins over Missouri and South Carolina. Texas A&M is coming off a bye, and Fisher will surely have some wrinkles to help Calzada play well on Saturday.

The Aggies have some real talent at the skill positions. Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane make up one of the best running back tandems in the SEC, Jalen Wydermyer is an elite tight end, and Ainias Smith has top-end speed.

Texas A&M has one of the best defenses in the country. Mike Elko has done a superb job with the Aggies, and they rank third in scoring defense (16.1 PPG). They are 7th in Defensive SP+ and rank in the top ten in pass defense.

The Auburn Tigers have failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games when facing a Top 15 AP-ranked school. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Auburn Tigers

Record: 6-2
VI Ranking: 13
Points Scored: 279
Points Allowed: 158
PS/G: 34.9 (26th)
PA/G: 19.8 (25th)

Inside the Stats - Texas A&M Aggies

Record: 6-2
VI Ranking: 19
Points Scored: 237
Points Allowed: 129
PS/G: 29.6 (61st)
PA/G: 16.1 (5th)

Key Players to Watch

AUB: Bo Nix - QB (150/241, 1,764 yards, 9 TD, 2 INT)
AUB: Tank Bigsby - RB (125 carries, 666 yards, 7 TD)
TXAM: Zach Calzada - QB (115/208, 1,364 yards, 12 TD, 7 INT)
TXAM: Jalen Wydermyer - WR (25 catches, 353 yards, 4 TD)

Auburn Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies Betting Conclusion

The Aggies have the better defense and the better run game. Nix is a better quarterback than Calzada, but he isn’t good enough to overcome Texas A&M’s other advantages, and that will lead to a win for the Aggies.

Auburn Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies Betting Trends

Auburn has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games when facing an AP-ranked Top 15 school.
Texas A&M has gone OVER the point total in eight of its last nine games when facing a school from Alabama.
Auburn has covered the spread in three of its last four games when facing Texas A&M.
The point total has failed to go UNDER in four straight meetings.