UNC Tar Heels vs. Pittsburgh Panthers Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Nov. 11, 2021

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VI Betting Expert
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ACC action is set for Thursday night as the UNC Tar Heels look to continue their winning momentum into Pittsburgh as they take on the Pitt Panthers. Kick off is set fro 7:30 p.m. ET and will air from Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Pittsburgh 45, UNC 38

Best Bets

Pitt -6.5

Over

UNC Tar Heels vs. Pittsburgh Panthers Predictions

This is a big matchup for both teams and I expect a ton of offense and plenty of points. These are two teams that like to pass the football and can score points. Pitt ranks number one averaging a robust 45 points per contest while the Heels put up 39.

The Heels defense has really struggled and shredded last week vs WF. Pitt has a much better overall defense but has still given up a lot of big plays in the passing game. Pitt QB Kenny Pickett has tossed for more than 3,000 yards, 29 TD's and just three INT's and completing almost seventy percent of his passes. Both teams have been money makers when it comes to Overs this year, UNC is 6-3 and Pitt is 7-2.

I don't think the Heels have enough to hang the full four quarters here vs Pitt after last weeks huge W.

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UNC Tar Heels vs. Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Odds

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UNC Tar Heels vs. Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Resources

• Matchup: ACC
• Date: Thursday, November 11, 2021
• Venue: Heinz Field
• Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• TV-Time: ESPN - 7:30 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• College Football Playoff Betting

UNC Tar Heels Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 5-4
• ATS: 4-5
• O/U: 6-3
• ATS - Home: 4-2
• ATS - Away: 0-3

Sam Howell played out of his mind against Wake Forest last week, showing how good he is running the ball as well. The issue for UNC becomes the defense and whether they can slow down an elite offense in Pitt. It's unlikely, but on the short turn around and playing with confidence anything is possible.

Howell is the pulse of this team though, so if he struggles so will UNC. It's rare that he will, throwing for over 2,000 yards already to go with an impressive 20:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Equally as impressive has been running back Ty Chandler with 13 rushing TDs on there year. Backing up to Howell, he has eight rushing scores. If Pitt struggles to tackle then expect another 40-burger from the Tar Heels.

Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 7-2
• ATS: 7-2
• O/U: 7-2
• ATS - Home: 3-2
• ATS - Away: 4-0

Much like Howell for UNC, Pickett is the life force of this Panther offense. He is accompanied by great talent too, especially in wide receiver Jordan Addison. Addison is expected to top the 1,000 yard mark and already has 11 receiving TDs on the year. Despite Pitt ranking first in points scored per game in the entire nation, the defense has been respectable as well.

The Panthers only allow 22.7 points per game which ranks 45th nationally and have given up less than half the amount of points scored this season. John Petrishen is one of the more valuable pieces to the Pitt defense, with three interception and three sacks. This defense gets to the quarterback, recording 31 team sacks. That's insane. Habakkuk Baldonado, Phil Campbell, John Morgan, Petrishen and Calijah Kancey can't have any arm tackles when going after Howell or he will make them pay.

The point total has gone OVER in four straight games played between UNC and Pittsburgh. (AP)

Inside the Stats - UNC Tar Heels

• Record: 5-4
• VI Ranking: 40
• Points Scored: 350
• Points Allowed: 301
• PS/G: 38.9 (12th)
• PA/G: 33.4 (112th)

Inside the Stats - Pittsburgh Panthers

• Record: 7-2
• VI Ranking: 26
• Points Scored: 405
• Points Allowed: 204
• PS/G: 45 (1st)
• PA/G: 22.7 (45th)

Key Players to Watch

• UNC: Sam Howell - QB (169/268, 2,408 yards, 20 TD, 7 INT)
• UNC: Ty Chandler - RB (143 catches, 884 yards, 13 TD)
• PITT: Kenny Pickett - QB (235/342, 3,171 yards, 29 TD, 3 INT)
• PITT: Jordan Addison - WR (54 catches, 986 yards, 11 TD)

UNC Tar Heels vs. Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Conclusion

Pitt should eat this NC defense alive and score almost at will. Tar Heels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win and are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.

Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.

UNC Tar Heels vs. Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Trends

• Pitt has covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 games when facing a non-AP-ranked.
• The point total has gone OVER in seven of the last eight meetings.

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