Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Virginia Cavaliers Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Nov. 13, 2021

Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

An ACC affair on Saturday night sees the Notre Dame Fighting Irish hit the road to take on the Virginia Cavaliers. Kick off is set for 7:30 pm. ET and will air on ABC from Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia.

Score Prediction

Notre Dame 38, Virginia 34

Best Bet

Over

Virginia +6

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Virginia Cavaliers Predictions

For the sixth time this season, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will face a team coming off a bye week. Notre Dame wasn’t able to knock off Cincinnati, but the Irish knocked off their other four opponents who were coming off a week off to be ranked top ten in the College Football Playoff rankings. The Virginia Cavaliers present a tough test on Saturday night though, as the Wahoos are 4-1 ATS in Charlottesville this season.

Virginia has never defeated Notre Dame. The Cavaliers are 0-3 against the Fighting Irish, and they have never finished within a touchdown of their opponents on Saturday. They will really test the Irish this time, but they will fall just short of an outright win at home.

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Odds

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Resources

Matchup: ACC
Date: Saturday, November 13, 2021
Venue: Scott Stadium
Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
TV-Time: ABC - 7:30 p.m. ET

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 8-1
ATS: 6-3
O/U: 5-4
ATS - Home: 4-2
ATS - Away: 2-1

Jack Coan has held off Drew Pyne and Tyler Buchner to maintain the starting quarterback job at Notre Dame. Coan is averaging 7.8 YPA, and he has shined against North Carolina and Navy the last two weeks. Buchner comes in to run the ball on special packages, and he is now the second leading rusher on the Irish.

After a rough start to the season, Kyren Williams has had a lot of success the last three weeks. He has run 64 times for 432 yards and five touchdowns in Notre Dame’s last three games. The offensive line is improving, helping make the Fighting Irish the 23rd best offense in the country per SP+.

Tight end Michael Mayer is one of the best at his position. He leads the team in receptions, and he is the second leading receiver on the Irish behind Kevin Austin Jr.. Mayer should have some big plays against this defense on Saturday night.

Notre Dame is allowing 22.4 PPG and 370.7 YPG. The Fighting Irish rank 15th in Defensive SP+, and they have a probable top ten pick in safety Kyle Hamilton. He has four passes defensed and three interceptions this season, leading the Irish in both categories.

Virginia Cavaliers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 6-3
ATS: 6-3
O/U: 3-6
ATS - Home: 4-1
ATS - Away: 2-2

This is not a typical Bronco Mendenhall team. Mendenhall’s teams at BYU and Virginia have traditionally run the ball and played great defense, but the Cavaliers have the most explosive passing attack in college football.

Brennan Armstrong has been lighting up teams through the air. He has thrown for over 3,500 yards and 27 touchdowns, and his play is why Virginia leads the nation in total offense (544.9 YPG). Unfortunately, Armstrong suffered a rib injury in the BYU game, and he is considered a game-time decision to play on Saturday night. If Armstrong can’t play, then freshman Jay Woolfolk will start against Notre Dame.

Dontayvion Wicks is averaging 23.1 YPR for the Cavaliers and is 28 yards away from 1,000 receiving yards this season. Former quarterback Keytaon Thompson is one of the most dangerous skill position players in the ACC with 867 total yards of offense.

Virginia does not have a good defense. The Cavaliers are allowing 34.6 PPG and 6.7 yards per play. The front seven has really struggled to stop the run, and that should lead to the game going over the total assuming Armstrong is healthy enough to start.

Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong is questionable for Saturday's home game vs. Notre Dame. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Record: 8-1
VI Ranking: 8
Points Scored: 295
Points Allowed: 202
PS/G: 32.8 (34th)
PA/G: 22.4 (41st)

Inside the Stats - Virginia Cavaliers

Record: 6-3
VI Ranking: 34
Points Scored: 350
Points Allowed: 277
PS/G: 38.9 (11th)
PA/G: 30.8 (101st)

Key Players to Watch

ND: Jack Coan - QB (159/243, 1,879 yards, 13 TD, 3 INT)
ND: Kyren Williams - RB (160 carries, 795 yards, 9 TD)
UVA: Brennan Armstrong - QB (261/406, 3,557 yards, 27 TD, 8 INT)
UVA: Dontayvion Wicks - WR (42 catches, 972 yards, 9 TD)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Conclusion

As long as Armstrong plays, Virginia should cover the spread and this game should go over the total. Keep an eye on the injury report on Friday and Saturday though.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Trends

Virginia has covered the spread in four of its last five home games.
Notre Dame has covered the spread in six of its last nine games.
Notre Dame has covered the spread in four of its last six games when playing as the favorite.