UNC Tar Heels vs. N.C. State Wolfpack Predictions

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Nov. 25, 2021

Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

North Carolina has blown out North Carolina State in each of the last two seasons.

The Tar Heels beat the Wolfpack by 31 points two years ago and 27 points in Chapel Hill last year. They are underdogs against their in-state rival this year though, as NC State comes into this game at 8-3 and is unbeaten in Raleigh this season.

Score Prediction

North Carolina 34 North Carolina State 31

Best Bets

North Carolina +6.5
Over 61.5

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. N.C. State Wolfpack Predictions

UNC quarterback Sam Howell was seen as one of the best quarterbacks in college football entering this season, but he has been surpassed by one of his in-state counterparts.

QB Devin Leary has had a great year for the Wolfpack, posting some of the best numbers in the country. These two will trade punches throughout the game, yet the Tar Heels will be able to have the last laugh.

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North Carolina Tar Heels vs. N.C. State Wolfpack Betting Odds

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North Carolina Tar Heels vs. N.C. State Wolfpack Betting Resources

Matchup: ACC
Date: Friday, November 26, 2021
Venue: Carter-Finley Stadium
Location: Raleigh, North Carolina
TV-Time: ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 6-5
ATS: 4-7
O/U: 6-5
SU - Away: 0-3
ATS - Away: 0-3

Howell didn’t play in last week’s win over Wofford, but he is expected to start on Friday night in Raleigh. He nearly led the Tar Heels to a win over ACC Coastal champion Pittsburgh two weeks ago, and his play helped North Carolina knock off previously unbeaten Wake Forest. His offensive line has really struggled to protect him this season, as Howell has been sacked 38 times in 10 games.

Despite the offensive line play, North Carolina ranks fourth in Offensive SP+. Ty Chandler has run for over 1,000 yards (6.0 YPC) with 13 touchdowns, and Howell has added 717 yards (4.7 YPC) with nine touchdowns.

There is one superstar in this receiving corps. Josh Downs is in line for all-conference honors with 90 receptions for 1,198 yards and eight touchdowns. Antoine Green is the No. 2 receiver with 26 catches for 528 yards and five scores, but no one else has more than 250 receiving yards.

Jay Bateman is likely to be let go at the end of the season. North Carolina’s defense continues to struggle, allowing 33.1 PPG and 423.4 YPG. The Tar Heels rank 78th in Defensive SP+.

N.C. State Wolfpack Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 8-3
ATS: 7-4
O/U: 6-5
SU - Home: 6-0
ATS - Home: 5-1

Leary has improved markedly over the course of his time in Raleigh. He completed just over 48% of his passes in 2019, but he has been one of the nation’s top passers in 2021. He is completing almost two-thirds of his passes for 7.9 YPA with 31 touchdowns and five interceptions. The offensive line has largely kept him protected, allowing him to throw for 292.7 YPG.

The ground game has been successful with Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr. splitting the load. Knight has run for 684 yards (5.2 YPC) with three touchdowns, while Person has run for 573 yards (4.6 YPC) with five touchdowns.

Three receivers have over 500 yards for the Wolfpack. Emeka Emezie is the top target with 55 receptions for 690 yards and four touchdowns, but Devin Carter and Thayer Thomas aren’t far behind. Carter is the team’s deep threat, averaging 17.9 YPR this season.

The Wolfpack rank 12th in Defensive SP+. The front seven is allowing just 3.5 YPC, while the pass defense is surrendering 6.2 YPA. Opponents are converting just 30.3% of their third downs against NC State, and Drake Thomas has been an elite linebacker. Thomas leads the team in tackles (90), sacks (six), and interceptions (three).

North Carolina RB Ty Chandler could be a workhorse for Friday's matchup. (AP)

Inside the Stats - North Carolina Tar Heels

Record: 6-5
Points Scored: 411
Points Allowed: 365
PS/G: 37.3 PPG
PA/G: 33.1 PPG

Inside the Stats - N.C. State Wolfpack

Record: 8-3
Points Scored: 350
Points Allowed: 219
PS/G: 31.8
PA/G: 19.9

Key Players to Watch

UNC: QB Sam Howell (2,704 passing yards, 22 TDs)
UNC: RB Ty Chandler (1,004 rushing yards, 13 TDs)
N.C. State: QB Devin Leary (3,186 passing yards, 31 TDs)
N.C. State: WR Emeka Emezie (55 receptions, 690 yards, 4 TDs)

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. N.C. State Wolfpack Betting Conclusion

This has all the makings of a shootout if Howell does indeed play. Howell has the talent and accuracy to put up points on the Wolfpack if he gets some protection from his offensive line, so North Carolina is a nice upset pick on Black Friday.