Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Nov. 27, 2021

Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

One of college football's best rivalries, the Iron Bowl, is set for Saturday with the Auburn Tigers hosting this year's game against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Kick off is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. and will air on CBS from Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama.

Score Prediction

Alabama 41, Auburn 17

Best Bets

Alabama -20

Over 57.5

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers Predictions

This year’s Iron Bowl lost some of its appeal when Bo Nix was lost for the season with an injury. Nix has been the starting quarterback for Auburn for the last three seasons, but he broke his ankle in the Tigers’ loss to Mississippi State two weeks ago. That has led to the Alabama Crimson Tide being a three-touchdown favorite on the road in Rivalry Week.

Some of Alabama’s staff is already looking ahead to the SEC Championship Game against Georgia, but the Crimson Tide can’t completely overlook Auburn. Nick Saban has been one of the best gameday motivators in the history of college football, and his demeanor during his weekday radio show will surely light a fire under his team. Alabama will roll on Saturday, keeping the Crimson Tide’s College Football Playoff hopes intact.

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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Odds

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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Resources

Matchup: SEC
Date: Saturday, November 27, 2021
Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium
Location: Auburn, Alabama
TV-Time: CBS, 3:30 p.m. ET

Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 10-1
ATS: 6-5
O/U: 4-6-1
ATS - Home: 4-3
ATS - Away: 2-2

Bryce Young is the only player that can beat out C.J. Stroud for the 2021 Heisman Trophy. Young has thrown for over 3,500 yards and 38 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions. He is looking to become the first Alabama quarterback in the history of the program to win the Heisman Trophy.

Young has two excellent receivers in Jameson Williams and John Metchie III. Metchie leads the team with 77 receptions, and he is the player that Young targets on third down. Williams is the big play threat with 59 receptions for 1,218 yards and 13 touchdowns. Slade Bolden is the third leading receiver on Alabama, but his numbers pale in comparison to the top two.

The Crimson Tide usually have a running back by committee, but Brian Robinson Jr. has been the go-to back this season. He needs just 55 yards to surpass 1,000 rushing yards on the season, and he has run for 14 touchdowns. Alabama’s ground game isn’t as formidable as we have seen in the past though, as this offensive line has been shaky up front.

Alabama ranks 11th in Defensive SP+. This front seven is not as dominant as we have seen in the past though, and teams can run on the Crimson Tide. The secondary has a star safety in Malachi Moore, but the cornerbacks aren’t as great as those we usually see in Tuscaloosa.

Auburn Tigers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 6-5
ATS: 5-6
O/U: 5-6
ATS - Home: 3-3
ATS - Away: 2-3

LSU transfer T.J. Finley will start at quarterback for Auburn. Finley saw some action earlier this year, coming off the bench to lead the Tigers to a win over Georgia State. He wasn’t great against South Carolina last week though, completing just 53.1% of his passes for 188 yards (5.9 YPA) with a touchdown.

Tank Bigsby has been Auburn’s best weapon on offense. Bigsby has run for 940 yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging 5.3 YPC. Jarquez Hunter is averaging 7.1 YPC as the back-up running back, but he hasn’t run for more than 40 yards in a game since October 2.

No player on Auburn has more than 500 receiving yards. Shedrick Jackson and Kobe Hudson have almost the exact same stat line as the top two targets, and Demetris Robertson isn’t far behind.

Auburn’s defense ranks 25th in SP+. The Tigers have a good front seven that is allowing just 3.9 YPC, but the secondary hasn’t been good. They are allowing 7.5 YPA and have just six interceptions.

Auburn has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last seven games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 10-1
VI Ranking: 3
Points Scored: 488
Points Allowed: 217
PS/G: 44.4 (2nd)
PA/G: 19.7 (19th)

Inside the Stats - Auburn Tigers

Record: 6-5
VI Ranking: 61
Points Scored: 333
Points Allowed: 242
PS/G: 30.3 (55th)
PA/G: 22 (37th)

Key Players to Watch

BAMA: Bryce Young - QB (264/368, 3,584 yards, 38 TD, 3 INT)
BAMA: Brian Robinson - RB (191 carries, 945 yards, 14 TD)
AUB: T.J. Finley - QB (34/65, 463 yards, 3 TD)
AUB: Tank Bigsby - RB (178 carries, 940 yards, 10 TD)

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Conclusion

This should be a rout. While going into Auburn is usually tricky for Alabama, the Tigers aren’t nearly as dangerous without Nix. The Crimson Tide will roll and head to the SEC Championship Game for the ninth time under Saban.