Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Picks, Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Dec. 11, 2021

Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

One of college football's best rivalries is set for Saturday as the Army Black Knights take on the Navy Midshipmen. Opening kick is set for 3:00 p.m. ET and will air on CBS from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Score Prediction

Army 17, Navy 13

Best Bets

Under 35 (-110) at Atlantis

Navy +7.5 (-110) at Peppermill

Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Predictions

Can the under in the Army-Navy game cash for the 16th straight time? The under in the last regular season game in the college football season has cashed 15 times in a row. There were just three points scored in the first three quarters of last year’s game at West Point, and the Black Knights went on to win 15-0 in an ugly game without a lot of offense. This year’s game figures to be offensively challenged as well.

Although Army is 8-3 and Navy is 3-8 coming into this game, the Midshipmen are the better side to take with the help of the hook. Seven of the last ten meetings between these service academies have been decided by seven points or less, and the familiarity brings low scoring games.

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Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Betting Odds

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Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Betting Resources

Matchup: Independent vs. AAC
Date: Saturday, December 11, 2021
Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV-Time: CBS, 3:00 p.m. ET

Army Black Knights Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 8-3
ATS: 6-5
O/U: 5-6

Army’s win over Air Force earlier in the season paired with Air Force’s win over Navy means that the Black Knights will keep the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy for the fourth time in the last five years. The Black Knights would love to get a one up on their rivals though, as the Midshipmen won 14 straight games from 2002 to 2015.

This is a very versatile triple option attack from Army. The Black Knights have used four quarterbacks under center this year, although Jemel Jones has only seen the field a handful of times since early October.

Chase Anderson is the top passer, and he is the second leading rusher on the Black Knights. Jabari Laws has proven to be a decent passing threat, but he isn’t much of a runner. Tyhier Tyler has been the opposite, as he is a superb runner but a subpar passer.

Tyrell Robinson is the leading rusher and is averaging 9.9 YPC, but there are 11 players on the roster with 20 or more carries.

The Midshipmen have the 90th ranked defense in SP+. Navy is allowing a respectable 4.1 YPC, but the secondary has been bad. Fortunately, that’s not a real concern against Army.

Navy Midshipmen Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 3-8
ATS: 7-5
O/U: 5-6

It’s been a rough year for Navy and Ken Niumatalolo. The Midshipmen might finish the year with three wins for the third time in the last four seasons, as Navy struggles to have success with the option when there isn’t a great point man.

Tai Lavatai has been the primary pivot for Navy this season, and he has had some issues with his accuracy. That’s somewhat expected with Midshipmen quarterbacks, but his inability to run the ball effectively has been a problem. Lavatai is averaging just 2.1 YPC, although he has had some nice performances in recent weeks.

Slotback Carlinos Acie is someone to watch in this offense. While Isaac Ruoss and James Harris II are both averaging under 4.0 YPC, Acie has run the ball 16 times for 241 yards and two touchdowns in Navy’s last two games. He has come out of nowhere after running for just 39 yards through his first three years at Annapolis.

Army’s defense ranks better than Navy. The Black Knights are 44th in Defensive SP+, and they are allowing just 3.8 YPC. They have a hard time against good quarterbacks too, but that isn’t an issue against this offense.

Army has failed to cover the spread in four of its last six games when playing as the favorite. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Army Black Knights

Record: 8-3
VI Ranking: 46
Points Scored: 390
Points Allowed: 251
PS/G: 35.5 (20th)
PA/G: 22.8 (40th)

Inside the Stats - Navy Midshipmen

Record: 3-8
VI Ranking: 103
Points Scored: 224
Points Allowed: 326
PS/G: 20.4 (115th)
PA/G: 29.6 (92nd)

Key Players to Watch

ARMY: Christian Anderson - QB (21/44, 545 yards, 12 Total TDs)
ARMY: Jakobi Buchanan - RB (111 carries, 412 yards, 11 TD)
NAVY: Isaac Ruoss - RB (157 carries, 608 yards, 5 TD)
NAVY: Tai Lavatai - QB (150 carries, 309 yards, 10 Total TDs)

Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Betting Conclusion

This will be a one score game although Army is much better than Navy on paper. There is too much familiarity between these programs and their systems, so the Midshipmen will keep it close and could win.

Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Betting Trends

Navy has covered the spread in two straight games.
Army has covered the spread in four of its last five games away from West Point.
Army has failed to cover the spread in four of its last six games when playing as the favorite.