TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns Picks, Predictions, Odds
The TCU Longhorns are looking to keep their dream season alive this weekend, but they are moderate underdogs on the road against the Texas Longhorns.
Although TCU is 9-0, the program has been pretty fortunate this year, leading to the Longhorns being favored by about a touchdown per the college football betting odds. These Big 12 rivals will meet on Saturday, November 12, at 7:30 p.m. ET from DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas on ABC.
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Prediction
As long as the TCU Horned Frogs beat either the Texas Longhorns this week or the Baylor Bears next week, they will be in the Big 12 Championship Game. Of course, TCU is hoping for more than that now after a 9-0 start to the season has the Horned Frogs ranked No. 4 by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee. The oddsmakers don't like TCU's chances this week though as Texas is seen as the best three-loss team in the country by a mile.
Score Prediction: TCU 28, Texas 27
Best Bet: TCU +7.5
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Odds
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TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Resources
Date: Saturday, November 12, 2022
Matchup: Big 12
Venue: DKR Texas Memorial Stadium
Location: Austin, Texas
Time-TV: ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET
Expert Picks
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Analysis
Max Duggan has thrived in Sonny Dykes' system. Duggan was seen as an average quarterback under previous head coach Gary Patterson, but he has been one of the best signal callers in the nation in 2022 under Dykes. The senior is completing 66% of his passes for 2,407 yards (9.9 YPA) with 24 touchdowns and two interceptions on the year. His accuracy has taken a dip in recent weeks, but this is an extremely explosive offense with NFL prospect Quentin Johnston averaging 15.5 YPR and Taye Barber putting up 19.6 YPR.
Kendre Miller is one of 13 players that has eclipsed 1,000 yards on the ground this season, having run for 1,009 yards and 12 touchdowns. Miller is averaging 6.6 YPC, and he has run for at least 100 yards in each of his last four starts. This combination of a great aerial attack with a solid ground game has TCU ranked 5th in Offensive SP+.
Unfortunately, the Horned Frogs are ranked 47th in Defensive SP+ as this side of the ball is not as reliable as it was under Patterson. TCU is allowing 28.1 PPG and 408.9 YPG, ranking in the bottom half of the NCAA in those categories. Linebacker Dee Winters is TCU's leader with 6.5 sacks, while Josh Newton, Abraham Camara, and Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson each have at least five passes defensed.
Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis
Quinn Ewers came to Texas with a lot of hype. He has shown that he has the potential to be a first-round pick in 2024, but he has also struggled with consistency. Ewers was not good in Texas' loss to Oklahoma State, completing 38.8% of his passes with two touchdowns and three interceptions. He was better in last week's win over Kansas State, but he completed just 58.1% of his passes and didn't have a completion of longer than 21 yards.
That's why this offense still runs through star running back Bijan Robinson. He is currently sixth in FBS in rushing yards, as he has run for 1,129 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 YPC. Robinson has seven straight games of 100 yards or more, and he exploded against Kansas State with 209 yards and a touchdown. The only knock on Robinson is that he isn't much of a receiver out of the backfield.
The Longhorns are still having problems on defense even though Steve Sarkisian thought this unit would be much better in 2022. Texas ranks 21st in Defensive SP+, and the front seven has been very good, conceding just 3.4 YPC. However, the Longhorns don't create a lot of havoc, ranking outside the top 90 in turnover percentage and sack rate. That has the potential to really hurt Texas if they can't knock TCU off schedule.