Last Updated Dec 22, 2021, 10:36 AM

Frisco Bowl Picks, Predictions and Odds: UTSA vs. San Diego State

Dec. 21, 2021
Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert

The Frisco Bowl this year features the UTSA Roadrunners taking on the San Diego State Aztecs as a couple of ranked mid-majors hit the field. Kick off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET and will air on ESPN from the Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

Score Prediction

UTSA 27, San Diego State 24

Best Bets

UTSA +3 (-110) at DraftKings

Frisco Bowl Predictions

There has been a lot of line movement ahead of the Frisco Bowl between the San Diego State Aztecs and UTSA Roadrunners. Originally, UTSA was a three-point favorite in this game, but San Diego State is now a short favorite and could close as a field goal favorite by kickoff. These teams are ranked 57th and 58th in SP+, so getting points will be a benefit on either side.

UTSA is looking for its first bowl win. The Roadrunners came up short in the 2016 New Mexico Bowl and in last year’s First Responder Bowl, but the third time will be the charm. Jeff Traylor led them to their best season in program history, and it’s only right that UTSA caps it off with a win over San Diego State on Tuesday night in Frisco.

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Frisco Bowl Betting Resources

  • Matchup: CUSA vs. Mountain West
  • Date: Tuesday, December 21, 2021
  • Venue: Toyota Stadium
  • Location: Frisco, Texas
  • TV-Time: ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET

UTSA Roadrunners Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 12-1
  • ATS: 9-4
  • O/U: 7-6

Sincere McCormick is looking to add to his UTSA single-season rushing record in the Frisco Bowl. McCormick has been one of the stars of the Roadrunners during their incredible season, running for almost 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns and was named the Conference USA Championship Game MVP.

Frank Harris was unable to earn First Team All-CUSA honors in a conference that had Bailey Zappe, but he did lead UTSA past Western Kentucky in the championship game. Harris should surpass 3,000 passing yards for the season in the bowl game, and he is the second leading rusher on the Roadrunners to boot with 565 yards and six touchdowns.

There are three receivers to keep an eye on for UTSA. Zakhari Franklin led the team with 73 receptions for 938 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Joshua Cephus and De’Corian Clark aren’t far behind him.

The stars of the defense are Rashad Wisdom and Clarence Hicks. Both players were First Team All-CUSA selections, as Wisdom led UTSA with 86 tackles and six pass defenses, while Hicks was best on the team with 10 sacks. This front seven was superb against the run, allowing just 3.3 YPC and 113.1 YPG on the ground.

San Diego State Aztecs Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-2
  • ATS: 6-6-1
  • O/U: 6-7

San Diego State does not have a good offense. The Aztecs rank 103rd in Offensive SP+, as their passing game has been virtually nonexistent. They are averaging just 157.3 YPG through the air.

Neither Lucas Johnson nor Jordon Brookshire have fared well despite both signal callers being seniors. Johnson has been a little more accurate, but he is checking down a lot, and neither quarterback is a particularly dangerous runner.

This ground game hasn’t been as effective as we have seen in the past. Greg Bell is one yard shy of 1,000 rushing yards on the season, and Chance Bell is averaging 4.7 YPC. However, they are a middle of the pack team when it comes to running the ball despite the Aztecs running on 60% of their plays from scrimmage.

The Aztecs do have playmakers on defense though. San Diego State had four First Team All-MWC selections, and Cameron Thomas was the MWC Defensive Player of the Year after recording 20 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks. Punter Matt Araiza was the best in the nation too and is currently on pace to set the NCAA single-season record for punt average.

Inside the Stats - UTSA Roadrunners

  • Record: 12-1
  • VI Ranking: 37
  • Points Scored: 492
  • Points Allowed: 307
  • PS/G: 37.8 (12th)
  • PA/G: 23.6 (44th)

Inside the Stats - San Diego State Aztecs

  • Record: 11-2
  • VI Ranking: 21
  • Points Scored: 345
  • Points Allowed: 253
  • PS/G: 26.5 (80th)
  • PA/G: 19.5 (16th)

Key Players to Watch

  • UTSA: Frank Harris - QB (241/363, 2,906 yards, 25 TD, 5 INT)
  • UTSA: Sincere McCormick - RB (299 carries, 1,479 yards, 15 TD)
  • SDST: Greg Bell - RB (221 carries, 997 yards, 8 TD)
  • SDST: Jesse Matthews - WR (47 catches, 482 yards, 7 TD)

Frisco Bowl Betting Conclusion

The betting line has moved too much in favor of San Diego State. The Aztecs aren’t that reliable on offense, and the Roadrunners have the guns to put up enough points to win.

Frisco Bowl Betting Trends

  • San Diego State has seen the underdog cover the spread in four straight games.
  • San Diego State has gone UNDER the point total in seven of its last eight games when facing an AP-ranked school.
  • San Diego State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last eight games when playing as the favorite.

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