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DINERO TALKS
The Antony Dinero handicapping brand is owned and operated by Tony Mejia, who is a veteran analyst and columnist in the online sports industry.
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Last Updated 6.20.2019
Top Draft Props to wet your beak on

The NBA Draft should have a number of trades take place on Thursday night, so outside of Duke's Zion Williamson and Murray State's Ja Morant, there are a lot of question marks surrounding the action in Brooklyn.

Here's the top money-making props I've identified. Odds are courtesy of VegasInsider.com.

Rui Hachimura (-225) vs. Brandon Clarke (+165): Which Gonzaga forward will be selected first?

Projected winner- Keep an eye on a trade rumor that could see the Pelicans deal the No. 4 pick to the Timberwolves, allowing them to have their pick of Jarrett Culver, Darius Garland and De'Andre Hunter. If they don't move the No. 11 pick and forward Robert Covington for No. 4, this is a layup since Hachimura should be their pick if they remain in that spot. Although Clarke is among the draft's top defensive player, I think he'll fall out of the lottery. due to concerns over his defense and the fact he isn't terribly big or long despite his shot-blocking prowess, so look for Hachimura to go ahead of him, becoming the first Japanese player drafted.

Taking a stand on draft positions, other props

How many Duke players will go Top-5?: Over 2.5 (+600), Under 2.5 (-1200)

Projected winner- Cam Reddish should go in the Top 10, but won't sneak into the first five picks alongside Zion Williamson and R.J. Barrett, so it's no surprise to see this line where it is. In a draft that doesn't have a lot of sure things, this is one..

How many UNC players will go Top-10? Over 1.5 (+270), Under 1.5 (-400)

Projected winner- Coby White will be selected ahead of Nassir Little and Cameron Johnson, who each have their share of suitors and may each be gone before 20. Neither should land in the Top-10, making this another juice-heavy alternative that's not as crippling as the Duke one above.

How many freshmen will go in the Top 10?: Over 5.5 (-400), Under 5.5 (+285)

Projected winner- This should be a fun one. Beyond Williamson, Barrett, Darius Garland, White and Reddish, Texas center Jaxson Hayes and Oregon big man Bol Bol are also potential Top-10 selections. I don't think I'd lay the juice though since it's no lock like the plays above. In fact, it's more tempting to fade the favorite here, hoping someone may reach for Georgia's Goga Bitadze or Virginia Tech guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker, allowing the low side to prevail at nearly 3-to-1 odds.

What will DeAndre Hunter's draft position be?: Over 5.5 (2/9), Under 5.5 (+130)

Projected winner- I don't see him getting past the Cavs, so I'm in on the low side for a profit. He's the perfect first pick for John Beilein, who understands that defense makes the difference

What will Jarrett Culver's draft position be?: Over 5.5 (+150), Under 5.5 (-200)

Projected winner- I'd stay away here. He could go as high as No. 4 or as low as No. 7 depending on whether there's a trade made.

What will Cam Reddish's draft position be?: Over 7.5 (-260), Under 7.5 (+180)

Projected winner- My expectation is he'll go No. 8 to Atlanta and don't think he'll go any higher, so this line appears to be set perfectly.

What will Darius Garland's draft position be?: Over 5.5 (+300), Under 5.5 (-450)

Projected winner- It's hard to imagine him being available at No. 6, so if you're willing to eat a lot of juice, this is also a lock.

What will Sekou Doumbouya's draft position be?: Over 9.5 (+120), Under 9.5 (-165)

Projected winner- He's a top-five talent who should go before the 10th pick, so swallow the chalk and pull the trigger.

What will Jaxson Hayes' draft position be?: Over 11.5 (+200), Under 11.5 (-285)

Projected winner- I don't see him slipping by Charlotte if he's available, but that doesn't exactly help us here. Considering I've got him going No. 10, I like the under but don't love the price.

What will Nassir Little's draft position be?: Over 12.5 (+150), Under 12.5 (-200)

Projected winner- He's been a steady climber through workouts but probably hasn't worked himself into position where you should take a shot at him hearing his name called among the top dozen picks

What will Brandon Clarke's draft position be?: Over 13.5 (-150),Under 13.5 (+110)

Projected winner- As stated above, I see Clarke slipping, with his slide ending when giddy Indiana gladly selects him. I don't see him winding up a lottery pick, so I'd ride the high side.

What will Bol Bol's draft position be?: Over 13.5 (-450), Under 13.5 (+300)

Projected winner- Here's a prop to take a shot on. There have been reports of Bol dropping for weeks due to the belief he won't be able to stay healthy, but in a draft that lacks star power, he can emerge as one of the top talents if he does manage to stay on the floor. I have Charlotte selecting him and will take a stab at tripling my investment.

What will Rui Hachimura's draft position be?: Over 13.5 (+150), Under 13.5 (-200)

Projected winner- I don't see him slipping out of the lottery so I see excellent value in the 1-to-2 odds. Always be cautious here, but I expect he won't be around for Danny Ainge's Celtics at No. 14.

What will Nickeil Alexander-Walker's draft position be?: Over 16.5 (-165), Under 16.5 (+120)

Projected winner- In a draft light on quality point guards, I think his intangibles will lead to him being Orlando's pick if he's there at No. 16 and believe he'll be gone by then. This is one of my favorite draft props. Ride the under.

What will Romeo Langford's draft position be?: Over 16.5 (+110),Under 16.5 (-150)

Projected winner- This number is right on as I've got him going 17th but could see him ultimately land in the lottery.

What will Keldon Johnson's draft position be?: Over 18.5 (+100),Under 18.5 (-140)

Projected winner- There are concerns over his shooting stroke, so even though he could go in the lottery, I'll back him falling into the 20s for an even money wager.

What will Carsen Edwards' draft position be?: Over 29.5 (-110),Under 29.5 (-130)

Projected winner- I have him slipping out of the first round, but it's possible he sneaks in. I'd take a stab at him slipping into the second round but wouldn't do so for anything substantial.



Follow Tony Mejia on Twitter at @TonyMejiaNBA

  
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