Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM
Rocket Mortgage Classic - Weekend Best Bets
2020 Rocket Mortgage
Definitely not a hard choice to jump back into this event, as you could not have whiffed harder then the three names I had for addressed for my pre-tournament action after a single round. The best of those names was Cabrera-Bello, who, after Round 1 was about five places out of last spot.
Another selection in Scottie Scheffler was the name sitting in dead last after a single round, throw in a withdrawal by Wyndham Clark and this tournament went downhill fast. There will be these weeks in golf betting where you do completely whiff though.
Thankfully the prop plays for the week are looking to be in much better shape thanks to all those Oklahoma State alumni doing well so far.
Considering I was so high on Matthew Wolff making the cut, grabbing a piece of his outright or Top 20 numbers would have been the thing to do as well, but we can chalk it up to another mistake in a tournament filled with them from my handicapping. Definitely wish I settled on Kisner instead of Cabrera-Bello in that latter range as well.
But hopefully the weekend can turn things around and at least right some of those previous wrongs, as there is no need to chase – especially when the initial read was so far off – but there are two names that should be interesting, with some each way plays at least for the rest of the weekend.
Event So Far
Another tournament since golf returned where going real low is the name of the game and if you aren't making a birdie every few holes you are quickly getting left behind.
There have been some very low numbers out there at Detroit Golf Club through two days, and I doubt that changes over the weekend. We are likely to get another event when big clusters of names are grouped together at certain scores and you'd better be on a guy with a hot putter.
Through two rounds, nearly all of the names leading the field in Strokes Gained: Putting are currently inhabiting some placement in or around the Top 20, and nearly all of them aren't particularly standing out in a positive way in the approach game to begin with.
Kevin Kisner and Matthew Wolff are the best of the bunch in terms of SG: Putting and SG: Approach, and those two names are ones I should have been on to begin with, so take that for what it's worth.
Blending a strong approach game with a hot putter is going to be what it takes to get any type of separation over the weekend, and chances are it will still be tight for at least a handful of guys on the Back 9 on Sunday.
Hopefully the two names that are about to get tabbed here find their way into that conversation on Sunday, so that the pre-tournament disaster that was the 2020 Rocket Mortgage can more easily be forgotten about.
After the Cut
Odds to Win Bets
Ryan Armour +4000
Armour is a guy I tabbed for a Top 40 finish elsewhere on the card this week, and that cushion in placing seemed appropriate because trusting Armour to go real low isn't real easy. But to put up the two rounds of golf he has so far and still be listed this far back because of the cluster scoring has made the outright outcome that much more attractive.
Armour's already been one of the best in the field at blending strong SG: Approach and putting numbers together to put up this number so far, and his entire game from tee-to-green has looked solid as well, culminating in an ace on the 5th hole on Friday.
The winning pedigree isn't going to be there for some, but his lone win on the PGA circuit wasn't all that long ago (2017) and he needed to sniff -20 to win the thing. That's easily where this week's event will take the top guys, and if Armour stays true to his form through two days in his final two rounds of play, he should have a shot.
Hudson Swafford +8000
Swafford is a guy who's got to -9 or better without the benefit of a hot putter so far, as he's put up a -0.54 SG: Putting so far, the only guy in the Top 17 guys in SG: Total to be in the negatives on the green.
Putting does tend to be one of the things Swafford prefers to rely on, so getting that to turn around over the weekend isn't a big ask. If a few more putts can fall for this guy, improving upon his rounds of 67-68 shouldn't be a huge sweat for him if he can keep up his play in the long game.
Only one career resume on the win will be something that ends up getting a few to shy away from Swafford, but six of his nine career Top 10 finishes have come since the start of the 2017 season, and he's well on his way to another one with a strong weekend at a very getable golf course.
With the bulk of the field not having particularly much trouble on the greens, Swafford could turn this thing around enough on Saturday where he's one of the final 8-10 guys on the golf course on Sunday with a real shot.