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2020 Preakness Stakes Picks, Predictions and Odds

 



Preakness Stakes
Betting Resources

  • Date: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020
  • Race: 11
  • Distance: 1 3/16 Miles
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Start Time: 5:36 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: NBC Sports
  • Location:Pimlico Race Course - Baltimore, Maryland
  • Odds: Morning-Line
  • Picks: VegasInsider.com Experts
  • History: Past Winners

Handicapping the Field
Preakness Stakes

Morning Line Odds

(Preakness Stakes Career Record)

145th Preakness Stakes Predictions

1) Excession

  • Morning Line Odds: 30/1
  • Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2-10)
  • Jockey: Sheldon Russell (0-1)

Finished less than a length behind Nadal in the Rebel at over 80-1 when last seen over six months ago at Oaklawn Park. He’s won just once in nine tries and all his best races have come over wet tracks. Pass.

2) Mr. Big News

  • Morning Line Odds: 12/1
  • Trainer: Bret Calhoun (Debut)
  • Jockey: Gabe Saez (0-1)

Made a big move on the far turn in the Kentucky Derby then raced evenly through the stretch to finish third at a big price. You’d have to think he’d have to follow up a career-best effort with another one to get a piece again in here. I’m not saying he can’t but I don’t want him at 12-1 Saturday after he was 46-1 in Kentucky.

3) Art Collector

  • Morning Line Odds: 5/2
  • Trainer: Tom Drury (Debut)
  • Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr. (0-2)

He’d have been second choice in Louisville before a brief illness knocked him out of the Derby. He missed just three days of training according to his connections and comes into this fresh and with a solid series of morning drills. He has plenty of speed and could be on the lead if that is the chosen path. He’s won from off the pace as well, namely in the Blue Grass, giving him some versatility that could come in handy should the Derby winner or the filly have their heart set on controlling the pace. A must use in all exotic and multi-race wagers.

4) Swiss Skydiver

  • Morning Line Odds: 6/1
  • Trainer: Ken McPeek (0-5)
  • Jockey: Robby Albarado (1-9)

Connections based their decision on the status of Tiz the Law and stuck to their word by entering when he defected. She tried the boys and beat them all save Art Collector in the Blue Grass then romped from off the pace in the Alabama before a second-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks. She hasn’t had a break since debuting in mid-November of last year. This will be her eleventh start at her ninth different track with her seventh different rider, all in less than 11 months. At some point you would think the well would run dry but it hasn’t yet. I think that may change. A reluctant toss.

5) Thousand Words

  • Morning Line Odds: 6/1
  • Trainer: Bob Baffert (7-20)
  • Jockey: Florent Geroux (0-4)
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Perhaps nothing was more “2020” than the 30 minutes surrounding the Kentucky Derby. He flips and gets scratched in the paddock, breaking assistant trainer Jimmy Barnes’ hand in the process, before stablemate Authentic wins Derby and wheels in winners’ circle, knocking Baffert to the ground. What a scene!!! It’s rare to see a comeback on the Triple Crown Trail but he kinda fits the bill as he was highly thought of early on before tailing off then winning the Shared Belief. I must think he’ll be forwardly placed, perhaps hounding some of the other speed in here. I’m not using him.

6) Jesus’ Team

  • Morning Line Odds: 30/1
  • Trainer: Jose D’Angelo (Debut)
  • Jockey: Jevian Toledo (0-1)

He was entered for a tag and went unclaimed in five of his first seven starts then hit the board in his last three against stakes company, including a third-place finish in the Jim Dandy last out when blinkers were added. Appears to have some distance limitations to me. Pass.

7) Ny Traffic

  • Morning Line Odds: 15/1
  • Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr. (Debut)
  • Jockey: Horacio Karamanos (Debut)

Just missed nailing Authentic on the wire of the Haskell before fading in latter stages of Derby where he had a fairly good trip. Another who may be a bit better at shorter distances. Not for me.

8) Max Player

  • Morning Line Odds: 15/1
  • Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2-10)
  • Jockey: Paco Lopez (Debut)

He worked out decent trip from his rail draw in Kentucky and grinded away, as he usually does, through the stretch to finish fifth. I feel like he’s going to have a breakthrough performance one of these days and he should get a solid pace to run at in here. I don’t know if he’s good enough, yet, but I’ll mess around with him at that price a bit and find out. Will use in exotics and maybe on a backup multi-race ticket.

9) Authentic

  • Morning Line Odds: 9/5
  • Trainer: Bob Baffert (7-20
  • Jockey: John Velazquez (0-9)

Overcame a less than stellar start in Kentucky under a chilly Johnny V to get to the lead and take them all the way in the Derby. Loved the way he dug in when Tiz the Law came to him, how he has never regressed figure-wise and how he’s trained coming into this. His biggest problem is I think he’ll get tested on the front end in here. In fact, I don’t think he’s getting the lead. And maybe it won’t matter and he can win from just off the pace but I don’t want to take 8-5 on him to find out. I’ll use him on all my exotic tickets and multi-race wagers but can’t take him to win at that price.

10) Pneumatic

  • Morning Line Odds: 20/1
  • Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2-10)
  • Jockey: Joe Bravo (0-4)

He didn’t beat much last out in the Pegasus but I liked the way he did it and he’s now won three of his four starts when he pulls his trip. Lone defeat when coming from off the pace was in the Belmont and I still think he ran well to be fourth. Another live one at a price, I’ll use him in exotics and on a backup multi-race ticket.

11) Liveyourbeastlife

  • Morning Line Odds: 30/1
  • Trainer: Jorge Abreu (Debut)
  • Jockey: Trevor McCarthy (0-1)

Became a fan of his three starts back when he almost upset an allowance at Belmont on the front end at almost 20-1 then cashed when he beat older allowance foes in his two-turn debut at Saratoga. He may have been best after a strange trip in the Jim Dandy when he finished second by less than a length. His pedigree says he’ll run all day, he gets the leading rider in the region and has an up and coming trainer coming off a sensational Saratoga meet. Gonna take a little swing and give a strong look on Saturday!

If Things Go Well...

Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Picks:

  • Exacta: 11-9
  • Trifecta: 11-9-8
  • Superfecta: 11-9-8-3

Projected Order of Finish

145th Preakness Stakes Finish Prediction
PP Horse Trainer Jockey Odds
11 LiveYourBeastLife Trevor McCarthy Jorge Abreu 30/1
9 Authentic John Velazquez Bob Baffert 9/5
8 Max Player Paco Lopez Steve Asmussen 15/1
3 Art Collector Brian Hernandez Jr. Tommy Drury 5/2
10 Pneumatic Joe Bravo Steve Asmussen 20/1
4 Swiss Skydiver Robby Albarado Ken McPeek 6/1
2 Mr. Big News Gabriel Saez Bret Calhoun 12/1
5 Thousand Words Florent Geroux Bob Baffert 6/1
6 Jesus' Team Jevian Toledo Jose D'Angelo 30/1
7 NY Traffic Horacio Karamanos Saffie Joseph, Jr. 15/1
1 Excession Sheldon Russell Steve Asmussen 30/1

If All Hell Breaks Loose...

Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Picks:

  • Exacta: 8-10
  • Trifecta: 8-10-11
  • Superfecta: 8-10-11-4

Projected Order of Finish

145th Preakness Stakes Finish Prediction
PP Horse Trainer Jockey Odds
8 Max Player Paco Lopez Steve Asmussen 15/1
10 Pneumatic Joe Bravo Steve Asmussen 20/1
11 LiveYourBeastLife Trevor McCarthy Jorge Abreu 30/1
4 Swiss Skydiver Robby Albarado Ken McPeek 6/1
2 Mr. Big News Gabriel Saez Bret Calhoun 12/1
3 Art Collector Brian Hernandez Jr. Tommy Drury 5/2
9 Authentic John Velazquez Bob Baffert 9/5
5 Thousand Words Florent Geroux Bob Baffert 6/1
1 Excession Sheldon Russell Steve Asmussen 30/1
7 NY Traffic Horacio Karamanos Saffie Joseph, Jr. 15/1
6 Jesus' Team Jevian Toledo Jose D'Angelo 30/1


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