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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Sunday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
We have a good nine race card on tap at Belmont Park today on the third day of the spring/summer meeting, a competitive stake at Santa Anita, and then it will be time to turn our full focus on the first Saturday of May and the Run for the Roses.
 
The feature at Belmont Park this afternoon is the $100,000 License Fee for fillies and mares going six furlongs on turf.  A field of eight will line up.
 
The 7-5 morning line favorite is Stormy Victoria, who is coming off a fifth in the Honey Fox (G2) going a mile at Gulfstream Park on the grass. The Christophe Clement trainee will appreciate the softer company and the cut back in distance and will be tough as the chalk.
 
The feature at Santa Anita today is the $100,000 San Simeon (G3) at 6 ½ furlongs on the downhill turf course with a field of eight heading to the post.
 
Conquest Tsunami is the 8-5 morning line favorite. The gelding makes his first start since running third in the Al Quaz Sprint (G1) on the Dubai World Cup card.
 
Belmont Park runs just three days next week from Friday until Sunday, and that will give me a couple of extra days to work on my Oaks and Derby Day reports.
 
Friday’s Kentucky Oaks Day card should be up by Wednesday evening and my Kentucky Derby Day Report will be available by Thursday night.
 
My Best Plays Multi Track Report for Sunday includes my seven strongest plays from Santa Anita and Belmont Park.
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package, which will give you a full month of reports from Belmont Park, my Best Plays Report each weekend and my Kentucky Oaks, Kentucky Derby and Preakness Day reports.
 
To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here .
 
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
 
BEL Race 1 Alw $66,000N1X (1:30 ET)
#1 Mar Vista Miguel   6-5
#3 Ethan Hunt   10-1
#6 Shiraz   9-5
#5 Outrageous Bet   5-1
 
Analysis: Mar Vista Miguel ships north from Florida where the gelding won his last two starts, beating $16,000 claimers two back and Alw-1 optional claimers last out in his first start off the claim by the Crichton barn. He finds a good spot here as he is back with state breds for the first time since January when he graduated against $25,000 New York breds. He is 4 for 7 on turf and he graduated on the inner track going a two-turn mile, so the extra furlong here should not pose a problem.
 
Ethan Hunt faded to finish seventh last out at this level. This guy was in the mix at this level three and four back and now makes his third start of his current form cycle for Toscano. He fits well here if he can run back to his good third three back or four back where he was second to repeat winner Cerralto.
 
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,6
TRI: no play
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
 
BEL Race 8 The License Fee (5:18 ET)
#1 Stormy Victoria   7-5
#2 Jennifer Lynette   3-1
#5 Always Thinking   6-1
#7 Lady Alexandra   8-1
 
Analysis: Stormy Victoria cuts back from a mile where last out the mare finished evenly in a fifth-place finish in the Honey Fox (G3) off a two-month break. Her last sprint was a game second in the Autumn Days at the Big A last November going six furlongs. She drops into a softer spot here for Clement who is 30% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint.
 
Jennifer Lynette makes her third start off the bench here, last out checking in fifth in the Giant's Causeway going 5 1/2 on the turf at Keeneland. Two back off the bench she made a good late rally to finish fourth beaten two lengths in the Captiva Island at Gulfstream Park. She earned a career top three back winning the Royal North (G3) at six furlongs. Castellano picks up the call here and she looks primed for a good effort here third off the shelf for the Casse barn.
 
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,5,7
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,5,7 / 1,2,3,5,7
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
 
SA Race 8 The San Simeon G3 (3:16 PT)
#1 Conquest Tsunami   8-5
#3 Coniah   4-1
#4 Belvoir Bay   4-1
#5 Isotherm   5-1
 
Analysis: Conquest Tsunami was a good third in Dubai in the Al Quoz Sprint, beaten two lengths for the top spot. The gelding is perfect in two starts going 6 1/2 downhill here, earning a career top speed fig two back wining the Daytona (G3). Three back off a 2 1/2 month break he was a sharp gate to wire winner against Alw-2 optional claimers. He has flourished since landing with Miller and is going to be tough in this spot as the favorite.
 
Coniah set the early fractions in the Mizdirection and kept on right to the wire in a fourth-place finish, beaten 3/4 of a length for the top spot. Three back at this distance he won the Las Cienegas (G3). The fourth-place finisher in that race was Beau Recall, who won the Royal Heroine (G3) in his next outing. This guy owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and is a danger to wire this group if he shakes loose early.
 
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX:  1,3 / 1,3,4,5
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,4,5 / 1,3,4,5,6
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Belmont Park
R1: #3 Ethan Hunt   10-1
R2: #2 true Blue   8-1
R3: #4 Special Risk   20-1
R4: #1 This Cat Can Fly   8-1
R4: #6 English Channical   12-1
R6: #2 Purrageous Dyna   10-1
R6: #3 Same Kinda Crazy   8-1
R7: #1 Ten Twenty Nine   12-1
R8: #7 Lady Alexandra   8-1
R9: #3 Platinum Nugget   8-1
 
Good luck today!

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