Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:04 AM
At the Gate - Saturday
Derby Day is here so I hope everyone got a good night’s sleep.
The opener today is at 10:30am ET and the finale on the 14-race card is slated for 8:20pm ET. Yes, you read that correctly, we have a 10-hour day ahead. Toss in a 12-race card at Belmont Park and we have 26 races on tap, which will give us plenty of action.
This year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) is one of the most wide open in years, with six or seven legitimate contenders which if they win, it would not be a big surprise.
Justify and Magnum Moon are seeking to end the Apollo Curse (I promise it will be the last time I say Apollo until at least next year), and Mendelssohn is trying to win the Derby off a prep in Dubai.
It is tough to have too strong an opinion on this year’s Derby, as there are just too many variables in play. However, that will not stop me from firing looking for a good score.
We have an outstanding undercard which features sis supporting stakes. Among them is the $500,000 Old Forrester Turf Classic (G1), the $300,000 American Turf (G2) and the $300,000 Humana Distaff (G1).
And do not forget there are two races after the Derby, which is race 12 on the 14-race card. Over the years I have an uncanny ability to hit those final races, and we hit both races after yesterday’s Kentucky Oaks (G1).
Oaks Day was not a profitable one, and I always imagine horseplayers exiting in droves after the big race. I hope you stuck around. We managed to hit the last two exactas although they came back chalky, paying $17.00 and $12.60.
And if you have already put in nine hours betting you might as well stick around for another hour and wager on the final two races today. What do you have better to do?
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package, which will give you a full month of reports from Belmont Park, my Best Plays Report each weekend and my Kentucky Derby and Preakness Day reports.
To purchase my Belmont Park, Churchill Downs and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $16,000N2L (12:50 ET)
#5 Jump for Joy 4-1
#4 Summer Punch 1-1
#6 Holy Gold 12-1
#1 Our Whim 6-1
Analysis: Jump for Joy returns off a three-month break after a tough beat last out in the slop at this level at the Big A. The mare was 4 3/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and has good works for her return. Baker is 13% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
Summer Punch was not a threat in a seventh [place finish on the grass last out against $40,000 non-winners of two. She graduated in the mud three back and looks more suited to dirt. She drops into a softer spot here tagged for $16,000 for the Diodoro barn that is 23% winners moving runners from turf to dirt. She figures here but her price is going to be on the light side.
WIN: #5 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 4,5,6
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 10 The Fort Marcy G3 (5:48 ET)
#1 Robert Bruce 7-2
#8 Silverware 2-1
#3 Blacktype 9-2
#9 Ticonderoga 8-1
Analysis: Robert Bruce is one of three in here sent out by the Brown barn. The colt was perfect in six starts in Chile including four Group 1 victories. The colt returns off the bench with lasix added and Gafflione gets the leg up more often than Carmouche does so I'll lean on this guy. Brown is 29% winners with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff.
Silverware also makes his U.S. debut for Brown. He was last seen fading to finish 18th in the Arc de Triomphe (G1). He won the '16 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1) and last June won the Grand Prix de Chantilly (G2). He was formerly in the Pascal Bary yard and except for his last two trips in the Arc and the Hong King Vase (G1) he is usually right in the mix.
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,3,8,9
TRI: 1,8 / 1,3,8,9 / 1,3,5,8,9
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:
CD Race 11 The Old Forester Turf Classic G1 (5:25 ET)
#3 Kurilov 6-1
#10 Beach Patrol 5-2
#1 Deauville 3-1
#7 Synchrony 5-1
Analysis: Kurilov is going to be the higher price of the Chad Brown duo in this race. The five-year-old is 0 for 3 since landing in the U.S. but he is getting better with each outing and has lost photos in his last pair. Last out in the Gulfstream Park Turf (G1) he stalked the early pace and finished gamely to miss by just a neck as the tough Heart to Heart managed to take the field gate to wire. The winner came back to win the Makers 46 Mile (G1) at Keeneland in his next outing. The third in the GP Turf was Hi Happy, who came back to Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 31 with a 105 Beyer. He returns here off a 2 1/2 month break for Brown who is 30% winners with runners coming back off a 45-180 day break. Looks like decent value if he goes off near his 6-1 morning line.
Beach Patrol is the other Brown runner and likely favorite in here. He makes his first start since a game second in the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) last fall at Del Mar where he got run down by Talismatic. The son of Lemon Drop Kid won the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) and Arlington Million (G1) in his two previous starts. He has run seven consecutive triple digit Beyers and Brown can have them ready to go off the bench, hitting at a 25% clip with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff.
WIN: #3 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 3,10 / 1,3,7,10
TRI: 3,10 / 1,3,7,10 / 1,3,4,7,10
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R1: #6 Holy Gold 12-1
R2: #8 Cantakeitanymore 10-1
R3: #3 Going Strong 8-1
R5: #2 Dry Martini 12-1
R7: #1 Rockford 10-1
R8: #10 battle Joined 8-1
R9: #4 Very Very Stella 12-1
R10: #9 Ticonderoga 8-1
R11: #1 tale of Silence 10-1
R12: #1 Burkie 8-1
Good luck today!