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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Thursday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
On Saturday we will take a trip out to Arlington Park and look at a trio of Grade 1 turf races, two of which are Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” races.

My Best Plays Report on Saturday will include analysis of the $1 million Arlington Million, $600,000 Beverly D. and the $400,000 Secretariat.

The Arlington Million is a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) and drew a competitive field of 11 led by the Brian Lynch trained Oscar Performance, who drew the 11 post. The colt earned a career top speed figure winning the one mile Pokier (G3) at Belmont Park in his last outing.

Trainer Chad Brown will be a busy guy on Saturday and will saddle three in the race with Robert Bruce, the winner of the Ft. Marcy (G1) likely to take the most action among the trio.

Aiden O’Brien ships in Deauville from overseas. The son of Galileo was a close up third in the race last year won by the Brown trained Beach Patrol.

The Beverly D drew a field of nine fillies and mares that will travel 1 3/16 miles with the winner stamping her ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1).

Brown sends out four runners led by Sistercharlie, winner of the Diana (G1) at Saratoga on July 21 in her last outing.

The Secretariat is always a tough race to handicap, three-year-olds on turf who are mostly going 1 1/4 miles for the first time in their careers and this year we have five Euro invaders.

The Brown trained Analyze It will be tough. He got run down by Catholic Boy in his last two starts, the Pennine Ridge (G3) where he lost by a neck and the Belmont Derby (G1) where he was run down late and beaten by a head.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Saratoga which is running six days a week and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

To purchase my Saratoga Report for Thursday click here.

Here is the opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:00 ET)
#4 Time Warp 6-1
#6 Molly's Party 3-1
#1 Jot 5-2
#3 Caralicious 8-1

Analysis: Time Warp brushed the gate at the break and was outrun in her debut over a wet main track here, taking some action at 9-2 in a field of nine. Now she goes turf and she is out of a Deputy Minister mare that has dropped four winners and two have won on turf. She gets a jock upgrade here to Castellano. She was a $230,000 purchase sent out by McPeek who is 10% winners moving runners from dirt to turf. Decent value if this gal goes off near her 6-1 morning line.

Molly's Party was bumped around coming out of the gate after being restless in the gate, raced at the back of the pack while green, switched leads a couple of times and finally started showing some late run to rally for third. He was sent off at 33-1 in his debut and he is going to be a much shorter price here but figures to move forward off his debut effort. He is out of a Flower Alley mare that has dropped one other foals to race, no winners to date.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 1,3,4,6
TRI: 4,6 / 1,3,4,6 / 1,3,4,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 8 The NY Stallion Statue of Liberty (5:19 ET)
#1 Byself 7-2
#3 Kreesie 3-1
#2 Goodby Brockley 5-2
#6 Wegetsdamunnys 8-1

Analysis: Byself makes her turf debut here in her fourth career start and off a game runner up finish in the slop last out against state bred Alw-2 optional claimers. The winner was Hay Field, who came back to beat open Alw-1 foes in her next outing on July 20. She broke her maiden in her debut last fall and then beat stat bred Alw-1 foe son the main track at Belmont Park off the bench. She is out of a Polish Numbers mare that has dropped six dirt winners but no turf winners, but the late damsire was proficient at dropping turf sprinters.

Kreesie stalked the early pace and finished evenly in a fifth-place finish last out against state bred Alw-2 optional claimers, beaten 2 1/4 lengths as the beaten favorite. The runner up Eloweasel came back to beat state bred Alw-1 foes in her next outing here on Monday. She won a NY Stallion Series race two back going seven furlongs with a good late rally at 7-1. This is her first try at a mile but looks as if she will be able to handle the added ground. The Donk barn is 16% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,2,3,6
TRI: 1,3 / 1,2,3,6 / 1,2,3,6,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R1: #3 Caralicious 8-1
R2: #2 Sacrifice 12-1
R4: #5 Michael Wonderful 8-1
R4: #2 Flat Bill 12-1
R5: #1 Flatexcel 8-1
R6: #6 King Kreesa 8-1
R8: #6 Wegetsdamunnys 8-1

Good luck today!

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