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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Sunday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
We had seven Breeders’ Cup Challenge Win and You’re In races on Saturday, and of the seven winners I would put the Over/Under on how many win Breeders’ Cup races at 1.5.
 
Diversify put in one of the more disappointing efforts on the day among the favorites, fading to finish fifth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). Ryan Moore aboard Mendelssohn got the jump on Diversify and Irad Ortiz Jr coming out of the gate.
 
Ortiz might have bene better served tracking the pace while sitting off the flank of Moore, but instead he sent him hard and he set fractions of 45.64 and 1:09.13 and had nothing left in the stretch.
 
Discreet Lover rallied from the back of the pack to pull of the big upset, retuning $93.00. Mendelssohn ran a credible third and Thunder Snow tracked the pace and was a solid second, and they seem likely to go on to the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
 
Probably the most impressive performance on the day was put in by Imperial Hint in his victory in the Vosburgh (G1). He was the heavy favorite, but he looked really good drawing off to win by 1 ¼ lengths geared down in deep stretch. He looks perfectly set up for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).
 
The feature on Sunday at Belmont Park is the $200,000 Miss Grillo (G2) which is always a productive race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1).
 
Trainer Chad Brown, who has won this race in five of the last six years with three of his fillies going on to win the Breeders’ Cup, has two main contenders in Newspaperofrecord and Dogtag.
 
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My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from Belmont Park and Santa Anita.
 
To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here .
 
Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
 
BEL Race 1 Md $40,000 (1:30 ET)
#1 The Mighty Judge   6-1
#3 Rucksack   9-5
#6 Chateau   2-1
#2 Zealous   7-2
 
Analysis: The Mighty Judge makes his third career start, and this will be his first over a fast main track. The colt checked in fourth in his debut in the slop at Gulfstream Park back in May and then came off the bench at Monmouth Park last out and caught a sloppy track in a another fourth. He took some play in both, 5-1 in his debut and just under 6-1 in his last outing. He drops in for a tag for the Weaver barn that is 30% winners (with a +ROI) dropping runners from maiden special to maiden claiming. He is the first foal to race out of a stakes placed Posse mare. The 6-1 morning line looks fair enough.
 
Rucksack dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish third last out at the Spa going seven furlongs in a race taken off the turf. He drops back in for a tag and was second in three of his four previous starts for a tag. He can handle the mile distance and his last pair of speed figs are good enough to handle this group. He has five sibs that are winners including stakes winner Cat Burglar ($538,720).
 
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,6
TRI: no play
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
 
BEL Race 9 The Miss Grillo G2 (5:50 ET)
#7 Miss Technicality   3-1
#6 Newspaperofrecord   6-5
#5 Varenka   10-1
#9 Dogtag   5-1
 
Analysis: Miss Technicality may end up a square price in here with Brown sending out a duo. Our top pick broke her maiden over the grass here at six furlongs in her debut, then beat a 12-horse field at Kentucky Downs in the Juvenile Fillies going a mile, rolling to a six-length win. The Clement trainee still ape pas to have a ton of appears. She has one sib, turf stakes winner Stays in Vegas ($419,279). She reunites with Rosario who was aboard for her debut win here. She put in a good work over yielding turf on Sept. 23 and there likely will still be some give to the ground this afternoon.
 
Newspaperofrecord is one of the two Brown trainees. The filly prompted the early pace and drew off smartly to break her maiden by 6 3/4 lengths as the favorite going this distance over yielding ground. She is out of the stakes winner Sunday Times ($111,652) who has dropped one other winner, turf winner Classic Times ($26,985). Brown is really high on this gal and he has won this race in five of the last six years including the last two editions. Three of his fillies have gone on to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1).
 
Varenka was third in her debut going 5 1/2 furlongs and Motion thought enough of her to try her in the P.G. Johnson where she made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot, unable to get to the Brown trained Dogtag who got the jump on her heading for home. This filly is out of the stakes winner Dynamic Cat ($134,490) who has dropped six other winners and four are turf winners and four are stakes winners, top earner Dynamic Holiday ($267,126). She now adds lasix and the 10-1 morning line looks fair enough to give her a look here.
 
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 5,6,7,9
TRI: 6,7 / 5,6,7,9 / 2,5,6,7,9
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
 
SA Race 6 The John Henry Turf Champ. G2 (3:14 PT)
#4 Ya Gotta Wanna   5-1
#7 Fashion Business   2-1
#3 Ashleyluvssugar   5-1
#6 Liam the Charmer   7-2
 
Analysis: Ya Gotta Wanna is back on turf after a fourth last out at Los Al in a restricted stake. He earned a career top speed fig on turf two back in a runner up finish in the Del Mar Handicap (G2). he was no match for our second choice, beaten 5 1/4 lengths at 45-1. The D'Amato trainee cuts back a furlong here and he was heading in the right direction before the dirt try last out. The gelding should get some pace to run at and is going to end up getting overlooked on the tote here.
 
Fashion Business earned a career top winning the Del mar 'Cap last out and he rallied from next to last and the early pace was not that fast. Three back at Belmont Park he was beaten just a length in the Manhattan (G1). This guy gives D'Amato a tough one two punch, but his price may end up going south from the 2-1 morning line and he is going to need to work out a trip.
 
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 3,6,7,8
TRI: 4,7 / 3,4,6,7 / 1,3,4,6,7
 
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Belmont Park
R2: #5 Truly Courageous   12-1
R4: #3 I Love Jaxson   8-1
R7: #8 Daddy’s Melody   8-1
R8: #6 Archanova   12-1
R9: #5 Varenka   10-1
 
Good luck today!

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