Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:01 AM
BC - Juvenile
Welcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 2 and Saturday, November 3 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race. If you want to know what Anthony will be betting on both Breeders’ Cup days, make sure to check back on Friday and Saturday to purchase Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Picks and Plays of the Day, a look at how he’ll wager on each and every race, available EXCLUSIVELY at VegasInsider.com. To purchase Anthony Stabile Pick Packs, Click to win!
Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $2 million
Date: Friday, November 2
Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
Is It True upset the great Easy Goer in 1988. Unbridled’s Song out-dueled Hennessy to win the 1995 running in just his third start. Johannesburg shipped in from across the pond and halted Officer’s winning streak in 2001. Street Sense took the first step in breaking the Juvenile/Kentucky Derby jinx by winning it in 2006, with Nyquist following in his hoof prints in 2015. Arazi put on his amazing display in the 1991 renewal at Churchill. In 2014, the Desormeaux brothers, trainer Keith and jockey Kent, teamed up with longshot Texas Red.
Favorites: 11 for 34 (32%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Chief’s Crown, 1984)
Highest: $63.20 (Vale of York, 2009)
Game Winner comes into the Juvenile undefeated in three starts for trainer Bob Baffert, who is looking for his fourth win in the event.
After breaking his maiden at Del Mar by nearly six lengths on the front end, Game Winner came from off the pace to win the G1 Futurity at the San Diego area oval. Stretched out to this trip last out, he handled the two turns with ease after dueling through sensible fractions on the lead to win the G1 American Pharoah by over four lengths.
Complexity broke his maiden on closing day at Saratoga with arguably the most impressive juvenile performance of the meet when he overcame a bit of a slow start to make the lead and win by over four lengths from his rail draw.
Trainer Chad Brown stepped Complexity up in class for the G1 Champagne last out. He broke like a shot, established a clear lead through fast early fractions and coasted home through the stretch, a three-length winner in the end
Mind Control finished second in his debut behind eventual graded stakes winner Call Paul before breaking his maiden and taking the G1 Hopeful after dueling most of the way on the lead at Saratoga most recently. He was scratched from the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in early October, meaning this will be his first start in two months.
Knicks Go posted a huge upset in the Breeders’ Futurity, leading every step of the way at 70-1 when racing on Lasix for the first time. He broke his maiden in his debut before an off-the-board finish in the G3 Sanford at the Spa and third pace finish in the Arlington-Washington Futurity at Arlington Park.
Tight Ten romped on the front end in his debut run over this course then finished a tough-trip second in the G2 Saratoga Special. Last out he was a determined second when he returned to Churchill for the G3 Iroquois at this distance some six weeks ago.
Gunmetal Gray was off the board in his debut sprinting then came back to win his second start, a two-turn mile, by almost seven lengths at Del Mar. Last out, he overcame a bit of trouble at the start to rally for second in the American Pharoah.
Code of Honor went gate-to-wire in his Saratoga debut where he set modest early fractions before stumbling badly at the start of the Champagne. He closed very nicely to overcome his trouble while wide to finish second and will be reunited with John Velazquez.
Signalman finished second in his debut over a sloppy Churchill strip before breaking his maiden over three months later at Saratoga. Last out he overcame a bit of a rough trip to get second in the Breeders’ Futurity when first time Lasix.
Standard Deviation broke his maiden on an off-the-turf race going seven furlongs at the Spa in his debut before making up a bunch of ground to grab the show-dough in the Breeders’ Futurity from post 13.
Dueling finished second in his first two starts sprinting, including Game Winner’s debut where he was the 4-5 favorite, before stretching out to easily break his maiden most recently.
Trophy Chaser posted a giant speed figure when breaking his maiden second time out in the slop at Gulfstream Park then failed to do any serious running in the Champagne.
Well Defined coasted home to win at this distance last out in a Florida Stallion Stakes race at Gulfstream and has won half of his four starts.
Mr. Money finished second in a pair of sprints at Ellis Park to start his career then stretched out to this distance when shipping to Churchill to break his maiden by close to four lengths at a juicy 9-1.
Topper T makes his first start for Bill Mott having beaten Iowa-breds in his two victories from five starts. He’ll be making his first start beyond six furlongs
Derby Date has finished off the board in three of his four starts and is looking to break his maiden in here. He is currently the first also eligible for the race and would need a defection to get in.
If I’m Right...
The rest of the field is going to really have to step up their game to compete with the two, undefeated favorites.
While stablemate Complexity figures to take a ton of money, I loved how Standard Deviation handled himself last time out. He’ll get lost in the tote board shuffle and should be 15-1 or so.