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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 14:01 PM

At the Gate - Wednesday

More rain fell in New York on Monday night into Tuesday which likely means we will be off the turf yet again at Aqueduct on Wednesday.

We have an eight-race card on tap and while I had a tough time coming up with live longshots, the morning line favorite is my top pick in just one of the eight races, so there is still some potential for a few decent payoffs.

The weather here in Florida has been miserable as well, with rain and temps in the 50’s, which got me thinking about spring. The Kentucky Derby is now just 171 days away, and that is a good thing.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Game Winner is the early betting favorite for the 2019 Kentucky Derby at [...] at +1000. The Bob Baffert (who else?) trainee is undefeated in four starts and has already racked up three Grade 1 victories.

That is a far cry from last year’s Derby winner Justify. That colt, also trained by Baffert, did not make his career debut until February of his three-year-old season. 112 days later he was a Triple Crown winner.

If the name Coliseum does not ring a bell, it might soon. The colt is the co-second choice in early Derby betting at [...] despite not yet having a race under his belt.

His is trained by Baffert as well and owned by Godolphin Racing. The colt is by Tapit out of the multiple graded stakes winning mare Game Face and has four published works including a four furlong drill this past weekend.

Look for the highly hyped colt to make his debut this Saturday at Del Mar.

Baffert also has a major player in Improbable, who is listed at +2500. The colt won the Street Sense Stakes on the Breeders’ Cup undercard and looks as if he has a ton of talent.

Here is a look at prices for the top dozen in early betting:

2019 Kentucky Derby Odds via [...]:
Game Winner +1000
Coliseum +2000
Instagrand +2000
Knicks Go +2000
Complexity +2500
Endorsed +2500
Improbable +2500
Mucho Gusto +2500
Roadster +2500
Rowayton +2500
US Navy Cross +2500
Vekoma +2500

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Aqueduct daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Wednesday click here.

Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $25,000N2L (12:50 ET)
#5 Incubator 4-1
#2 Purchasing Power 1-1
#3 Malibu Strings 8-5
#4 Magnetron 6-1

Analysis: Incubator tracked the early pace and tired to finish sixth last out at 9-5 at Philly at this level. Two back in the slop at Monmouth Park he set the early fractions and finished gamely after getting headed to finish in the runner up spot. He makes his third start of his current form cycle and catches a pretty soft spot here taking on just four foes. He owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers in a race without much early zip signed up. By Stephen Got Even out of a Mr. Greeley mare, he has enough pedigree to handle nine furlongs.

Purchasing Power also made his last start at Philly, weakening to fish sixth against Alw-1 foes. He drops in for a tag here for the first time here for the Brown barn. He was a decent third at Monmouth Park two back in his first start against winners Alw-1 optional claimers. His graduated in his second career start in NJ going two turns. He faces easier and has enough pedigree to handle nine furlongs.

WIN: #5 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 5 / 2,3
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 7 OClm $40,000N2X (3:47 ET)
#9 Ethan Hunt 10-1
#10 Royal Asset 6-1
#16 Five Star Bunt 2-1
#4 Colonel Tom 3-1

Analysis: Ethan Hunt has not been on dirt in a while but ran pretty well against state bred Alw-1 foes on dirt last year. Last out on turf the colt tracked the early pace and finished gamely in a close up third, beaten 3/4 of a length for the top spot. The colt comes in here in sharp form and Saez picks up the call for Toscano who has picked up a couple of wins at the meeting.

Royal Asset set the early fractions and weakened inside the final furlong to check in third last out against $32,000 foes in his first start off the claim by the RRod barn over good ground on turf. His last win came on dirt at Keeneland last fall where he beat $32,000 claimers. He has been better on dirt than turf and looks like a god fit here if this comes off the turf as expected.

WIN: #9 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 9,10 / 4,9,10,16
TRI: 9,10 / 4,9,10,16 / 4,9,10,13,16

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

R3: #12 Sea of Hope 8-1
R7: #9 Ethan Hunt 10-1
R8: #5 Wild With Style 10-1

Good luck today!

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