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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Sunday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
Well Defined took the field gate to wire to win the $250,000 Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday and earned 10 points toward entry into the Kentucky Derby (G1).
 
It looked as if there was enough early pace to set things up for a closer, but jockey Pablo Morales aboard Well Defined was able to set fractions of 23 1/5 and 47 flat and it was clear sailing for there, the colt winning by 2 ¾ lengths.
 
He paid $16.00 to win with my top pick Kentucky Wildcat rallying for the runner up spot at 3-1, completing a $2 exacta that paid $76.00.
 
We could see a Derby contender or two exit today’s $200,000 San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita. The race drew a compact field of five but there are two Bob Baffert runners in the race.
 
Coliseum is the 6-5 morning line favorite. The colt was taking action in Derby future betting before he even made his debut, and scored in his first race in gate to wire fashion.
 
However, his stakes debut did not go well in the Sham (G3). He was off a step slow and was not much of a threat in a sixth-place finish.
 
His stablemate Dessman was a very impressive maiden winner in his debut, drawing clear to win by 7 ½ lengths. This colt was a $750,000 purchase who appears to have plenty of potential.
 
Baffert just keeps on sending out live three-year-olds and if things go his way over the next six weeks, he could be a very busy guy in the paddock on the first Saturday of May.
 
My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my eight strongest plays from Aqueduct and Santa Anita Park.
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Aqueduct daily and Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.
 
To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here.
 
Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
 
AQU Race 1 Md $20,000 (12:50 ET)
#6 Swift Vengeance   9-5
#3 Way Over Budget   5-1
#5 Overheated   4-5
#7 Flying Pleasantly   12-1
 
Analysis: Swift Vengeance caught a muddy track last out in her second start off the bench. She tracked thee early pace, came with a four wide bid to get into the mix and weakened inside the final furlong to finish third. Two back off the bench she ran second to repeat winner Science Fiction, who came back to beat $50,000 non-winners of three in her next outing on Feb. 8. The Rice trainee looks primed for a top effort here third off the bench. She is out of a Yonaguska mare that has dropped three winners, top earner stakes winner Co Cola ($96,220).
 
Way Over Budget was bumped coming out of the gate, pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fourth last out in the mud at 31-1. There is not a ton of early zip signed up to go here and she should be right in the mix early. Speed has done well over the main track here the past couple of days.
 
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 3,5,6,7
TRI: 3,6 / 3,5,6,7 / 1,3,5,6,7
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
 
AQU Race 8 The Biogio's Rose (4:33 ET)
#2 Split Time   5-2
#8 No Hanye No Gayne   3-1
#5 Bonita Bianca   4-1
#1 Frostie Anne   10-1
 
Analysis: Split Time saved ground early and came with a good late rally to win the state bred Bay Ridge over four foes she faces again today. The runner up No Hayne No Gayne came back to beat state bred Alw-2 optional claimers in her next outing on Jan. 25 by 7 3/4 lengths. The filly cuts back form nine furlongs to a mile and is 3 for 3 at the distance. He should get an honest pace in front of her in this spot.
 
No Hayne No Gayne comes in here sharp but her win last out was her first in nine trips over the Big A main track. The mare owns a solid pace profile throughout with good early and mid pace numbers. That was a career top speed fig she earned last out in her 20th start. Asmussen has been very live at the meeting, hitting at a 30% clip. She is a threat if she does not regress off her big effort last out.
 
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 1,2,5,8
TRI: 2,8 / 1,2,5,8 / 1,2,3,5,8
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
 
SA Race 8 The San Vicente G2 (4:10 PT)
#2 Coliseum   6-5
#3 Dessman   5-2
#5 Savagery   4-1
#4 Sparky Ville   4-1
 
Analysis: Coliseum was no secret when he made his debut and he ran big, drawing away to win by 6 3/4 lengths. The colt was even taking action in the Derby futures before making his debut. He broke a beat slow last out in the Sham (G3) and never got untracked in a disappointing sixth place finish on the stretch out to a mile. He has come back with a couple of sharp works and just going to toss his last effort. He is out of the stakes winner Game Face ($799,348).
 
Dessman is also sent out by Baffert and he took plenty of action at 4-5 in his debut. He prompted the early pace and drew away to win by 7 1/2 lengths over a wet track. The $750,000 purchase is out of a Trippi mare who has dropped one other foal to race, stakes winner Renaissance Frolic ($149,470). Tough to get past the Baffert duo in this compact field.
 
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 2 / 3,5
TRI: no play
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Aqueduct
R1: #7 Flying Pleasantly   12-1
R3: #1 Tio Bias   10-1
R4: #2 Eddie Boy   15-1
R5: #5 She Makes Me Smile   8-1
R7: #2 Coltandmississippi   8-1
R8: #1 Frostie Anne   10-1
 
Good luck today!

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