A11 – Louisiana, Sunland Derby
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
Anthony's Eleven (3/22/19)
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The two Kentucky Derby points races on the Trail take place down south this weekend when 11 three-year-olds will go to post in the first 100 points race of the season, the G2 Louisiana Derby on Saturday at the Fair Grounds while 10 sophomores will chase 50 points in the final race of its kind for the year in the G3 Sunland Park Derby down in New Mexico on Sunday. Both races will be contested at 1 1/8 miles on the main track.
Down in New Orleans, War of Will looks to remain unbeaten on dirt when he heads to post as the likely favorite in the Louisiana Derby for Mark Casse under regular rider Tyler Gaffalione from post 6.
War of Will failed to break his maiden in the first four starts of his career on turf but did give a good account of himself in those efforts that included a second-place finish in the G1 Summer at Woodbine by less than a length and a fifth-place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf where he was beaten just a little over three lengths.
Casse switched War of Will to dirt when he wheeled him back three weeks after the Breeders’ Cup and he promptly broke his maiden by daylight over a sloppy Churchill Downs strip before rolling to an easy tally in the G3 Lecomte in his Fair Grounds debut a little less than two months later in his first start of the year.
Four weeks later in the G2 Risen Star, War of Will drew post 13 in the 14-horse field, hardly an ideal starting position, but shrugged off his luck of the draw when he found his way to his usual first-to-strike position about three lengths from the top to make the lead on the turn to win by just over two lengths.
Country House closed from far back to finish a solid second in the Risen Star in his stakes debut for Bill Mott and will break from post 8 under Luis Saez.
After trying turf in his debut at Belmont last fall, Country House missed by just a half-length in a loaded maiden race at Aqueduct back in December before making the winter trip south to Florida.
In his first start of the year at Gulfstream, Country House broke poorly from his rail draw as the 3-5 favorite and appeared to lose all chance at the break of the 1 1/16 miles event but recovered nicely and passed his five rivals to draw away in the lane to an impressive three-plus length score.
With no less than four sophomores with designs on the Run for the Roses at that point, Mott decided to send Country House out of the Sunshine State and to the bayou for the Risen Star. Again a beat slow at the break, Country House and Saez moved up through the field down the backstretch before swinging wide in the lane to get the place money. Though he should appreciate the added distance. He’ll need to overcome his gate woes at some point.
Sueno ships in for trainer Keith Desormeaux with a powerful stretch run that should work well over the course. After breaking his maiden for a $80K tag in his second start last August, Sueno won the Gold Rush over the synthetic surface at Golden Gate to wrap up 2018.
This season, Sueno finished a solid second in the G3 Sham at Santa Anita, a race in which he actually had the lead in deep stretch before getting run down late then passed a bunch of horses on the turn in the G3 Southwest at Oaklawn last out when second in an oddly run race. Corey Lanerie, aboard last out for the first time, returns to ride from post 4.
Steve Asmussen will send out both Limonite and Bankit just a week after running six contenders in the split divisions of the Rebel at Oaklawn, including the upset winner of the first heat, Long Range Toddy.
Limonite returned from a near three-month layoff to finish fifth in the Risen Star last out after encountering a bit of traffic at the top of the stretch. Last season, he broke his maiden and finished a hard-charging third in the G2 KJC at Churchill while racing against the track bias. Jose Ortiz rides for the first time from post 3
Bankit is the most seasoned runner in here as this will be his ninth start. As a juvenile, he won two of his six starts, capping off the season with a win in the Sleepy Hollow against fellow New York-breds at Belmont and a solid second place finish when he missed by just a head in the Springboard Mile at Remington where he passed all of his rivals save the winner. This year, Bankit disappointed as the 8-5 favorite in the Smarty Jones then made a bit of a middle move when wide in the Southwest, resulting in a fifth-place finish. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides from post 9.
Spinoff ships in from Florida for Todd Pletcher off of an impressive allowance/optional claiming romp by close to a dozen lengths at Tampa Bay Downs last out in his first start around two turns and first off of a six-month layoff. Last year, Spinoff broke his maiden first out in an early summer maiden event at Gulfstream before a third-place finish in the G2 Saratoga Special behind eventual, multiple graded stakes winner Call Paul. John Velazquez has the call from post 10.
Hog Creek Hustle found trouble early and raced very wide late in the Risen Star where he eventually finished a half-dozen lengths behind the winner in fourth. Second in the Lecomte two back, he won two of his first three starts before a third-place finish in the Sugar Bowl in his first start over the course. Miguel Mena rides for Vickie Oliver from post 11.
Roiland will likely be a much shorter price than the 69-1 odds he went off at last out when he made up a ton of ground to get the show-dough in the Risen Star for trainer Tom Amoss. A two-time winner in six starts, Roiland had blinkers added for the Lecomte where he finished seventh before responding nicely to them last out. Jimmy Graham rides from post 1.
Bret Calhoun sends out longshots Mr. Money and By My Standards in the Risen Star. Mr. Money broke his maiden in his third start last season, his first going a route of ground, before finishing fourth in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He made a middle move on the turn of the Risen Star in his first start this year before tiring to seventh. Adam Beschizza rides from post 7.
By My Standards hit the board in his first three starts before breaking his maiden by over four lengths most recently. Gabe Saez rides from post 5.
Lemniscate rounds out the field from post 2 for Ken McPeek with Brian Hernandez, Jr. aboard. He finished fourth and second, respectively, in his first two dirt sprints against Florida-breds at Gulfstream before stretching out and going gate to wire on the turf there less than three weeks ago.At Sunland, Mucho Gusto looks to give trainer Bob Baffert yet another Derby contender when he faces nine others on Sunday. At first glance, the field appears to be in order of the morning line odds, with an exception or two, so we’ll just go from the rail out.
Easily the most accomplished in the field, Mucho Gusto took his first two starts sprinting, a maiden win at Los Alamitos and the G3 Bob Hope at Del Mar. before stretching out and finishing second to stablemate Improbable in the G1 Los Al Futurity where he tired after setting the pace to finish second.
In his 2019 bow, Mucho Gusto and regular rider Joe Talamo sat off of the early pace for the first time before taking the lead on the turn and cruising to an almost five-length win in the Lewis.
Anothertwistafate ships in from Golden Gate for trainer Blaine Wright off of a series of three straight wins. After failing to fire in his sprint debut at Santa Anita, he broke his maiden, won an entry level allowance/optional claimer and the El Camino Real Derby going long by a combined 16 lengths. J J Hernandez rides.
Hustle Up won his first five starts and seven of his first nine overall, including four stakes, against New Mexico-breds before going gate-to-wire in the Mine That Bird Derby in his first start against open company. He’ll look to stay perfect around two turns having won his last three. Shane Laviolette rides for Todd Fincher
Wicked Indeed ships back in for Asmussen having missed by just a length in the Mine That Bird Derby. He broke his maiden in his sprint debut, then finished third in an entry level allowance/optional claimer and fourth in the Lecomte before his last. Luis Contreras is back aboard.
Cutting Humor ships in for Pletcher and Velazquez off of a disappointing seventh place effort in the Southwest when he pulled a strange trip as the 2-1 favorite. He’s won just once from five tries but was second to Fountain of Youth runner-up Bourbon War two starts back.
Walker Stalker broke his maiden two back in his first start around two turns before staying on to finish third at over 45-1 in the Mine That Bird Derby Jose Gonzalez, Jr. Alejandro Medellin rides. Pasamonte Man looks for his first tally having finished just behind Walker Stalker in both the maiden race and Mine That Bird Derby when fourth. Ken Tohill rides for Joel Marr.
Collusionist is winless in three tries since taking the first two starts of his career last July. Alfredo Juarez, Jr. has the call for O.A. Martinez, Jr. Diamond Blitz has finished fourth is his three dirt starts with his lone win coming in a maiden claimer on turf. Kent Desormeaux rides for his brother. Eye Cloud has won just twice, in sprints, from eight tries for Tracy Norris. Isaias Enriquez has the mount.
Prep Play of the Day
In the Louisiana Derby, bet $30 win on Country House. In the Sunland Derby, bet $30 win on Cutting Humor. Total bets are $60. Good luck!!!!!
Bankroll: Plus $56
Anthony “the Big A” Stabile can be heard regularly on the Horse Racing Radio Network from 3-6PM ET on Wednesday and 3-7PM ET Thursday and Friday. Tune in on Sirius 219, XM 201 or streaming live at horseracingradio.net. He also is a contributor on NYRA-TV as the co-host of Talking Horses and a backup racetrack announcer. Follow him on Twitter @thebigastabile
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