Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:58 AM

At the Gate - Thursday

Normally the Sunday and Monday after the Kentucky Derby gives me a chance of lounging around counting my winnings (or hitting the ATM), but this year’s Derby was anything but normal.

We had the first disqualification for interference in the 145-year history of the Run for the Roses, followed up Gary West, the owner of Maximum Security, who was taken down, filing an appeal and now saying he may head into federal court to attempt get the disquaification overturned.

I decided on Monday to take a short break (i.e. nap) and sit out in the sun, but it was less than 10 minutes later my phone was lighting up—Derby winner Country House had developed a cough and was declared out of the Preakness Stakes (G1).

Now it appears the first four across the Derby finish line—Maximum Security, Country House, Code of Honor and Tacitus will not be making the trip to Baltimore.

That leaves Improbable, who was fifth in the Kentucky Derby as the early favorite for the Preakness, with War of Will a solid second choice.

Two other Derby alums are still probable for the second jewel of the Triple Crown—Win Win Win, who was ninth and Bodexpress, who faded to finish 13th after being affected by Maximum Security veering in near the 5/16 ‘s pole.

As of right this very second (it could change 30 seconds from now) there are 10 horses listed as probable for the race. I have a hunch we are going to see a change in the line up over the next few days, so don’t settle in on your selections just yet.

Back at it at Belmont Park this afternoon and we have a late post time. The first race goes off at 3:05 ET today so feel free to sleep in.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Belmont Park daily, my Best Plays Report each Saturday and my Black Eyed Susan and Preakness Stakes Day Reports.

To purchase my Belmont Park Report for Thursday click here .

Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 OClm $62,500N2X (3:05 ET)
#7 Lion in Wait 8-5
#8 Miss Munnings 9-5
#2 Orbulation 7-2
#5 Crimson Frost 6-1

Analysis: Lion in Wait makes her first start since January where he was fifth over good ground in the Krantz Memorial at Fair Grounds over good ground. She was involved in photos in four of her previous five starts, winning at this level by a nose two back. She was facing tougher last out and may have regressed regardless. Now she returns off a break for the Cox barn and looks well spotted here. She has landed din the exacta in 9 of her 10 trips on the lawn here.

Miss Munnings made a good late rally to go from last to first to beat Alw-1 foes last out at Gulfstream Park going a mile. The runner up and fourth place finisher both came back to beat Alw-1 foes in their next outings. She returns off a three month break her for Kimmel who is 10% winners with runners coming back off a 46-90-day break. It took her nine tries to break her maiden but since then she has just shown improvement with each outing.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 2,7,8
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 The Flat Out (6:46 ET)
#7 Marconi 5-2
#1 Monongahela 7-2
#2 Twisted Tom 6-1
#5 Rocketry 9-5

Analysis: Marconi tracked the early pace and finished strongly to get up and win the Skip Away last out at Gulfstream Park going 1 3/16 miles. The colt checked in fourth two back against Alw-1 optional claimers in his first start off a 10-month layoff. The Pletcher trainee showed some ability as a three-year-old with a third in the Withers (G3) in his first start against winners. He looks as if he can handle the extra ground here and is sitting on a good one here in his third start off the bench.

Monongahela tracked the early pace while down along the 2-3 paths and made a mild late rally to finish in the runner up spot in the Excelsior (G3) at nine furlongs at the Big A. He was down toward the inner paths on a day most of the winners were coming from the outer part of the racing strip He has now landed in the runner up spot in four straight starts. His numbers are solid, and he does not need to move forward much to beat this group.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,2,5,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,2,5,7 / 1,2,4,5,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R2: #4 Rewarded 10-1
R3: #11 Bad Boy 8-1
R4: #3 Honorable Here 8-1
R4: #1 Traffic Stop 8-1
R5: #1 San Juan Diego 10-1
R6: #10 Arewehavingfunyet 8-1
R6: #2 Wildcat Belle 10-1

Good luck today!

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