Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:58 PM
At the Gate - Wednesday
Seeking the Soul won Saturday night’s Stephan Foster (G1) at Churchill Downs as our top pick and stamped his ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
We are now 134 days away from the Breeders’ Cup, which will be held at Santa Anita on Nov. 1-2. Breeders’ Cup Classic Future odds were released on Tuesday, but by last night they were back down, likely to make a few adjustments.
McKinzie is the early betting favorite at 8-1. The Bob Baffert trainee was a solid second in the Met Mile (G1) as the beaten favorite Mitole beat hm, but that colt seems more likely destined for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) or Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).
Maximum Security is the co-second choice at 12-1, despite coming up short in his return race in the Pegasus at Monmouth Park on Saturday. His next start still is likely the Haskell Invitational (G1), but it is tough to get too excited about the Jason Servis trainee off his effort on Saturday.
The co-second choice is Thunder Snow who was third in the Met Mile but is better at longer distances. He has won the Dubai World Cup (G1) twice and was third in last year’s Classic.
Foster winner Seeking the Soul is a solid 20-1, but I expect that price to drop a few points in the coming weeks. We likely will see him make two more starts before the Classic, his next outing probably coming in either the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga on Aug. 3 or the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar on Aug. 17.
The three-year-old division is completely up in the air, and who knows which runners from this crop will be the biggest danger to their elders this fall. It could be Omaha Beach, Tacitus, Game Winner or even Pegasus winner King for a Day.
Breeders’ Cup Classic Future Odds
Maximum Security 12/1
Omaha Beach 14/1
Catholic Boy 16/1
Game Winner 16/1
Vino Rosso 16/1
Seeking The Soul 20/1
Sir Winston 25/1
War of Will 25/1
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To purchase my Belmont Park Reports for Wednesday click here .
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $25,000N2L (1:30 ET)
#3 Evan's Nice Now 2-1
#4 Bid You Adieu 5-1
#2 Big Bennys Tribute 7-5
#1 It's a Shaw Thing 3-1
Analysis: Evan's Nice Now faced winners for the first time last out off a four-month break. The filly set the early fractions and was no match for a 9 1/4 length winner while 4 1/2 clear of the rest of the field. She makes her second start off the break and picks up a jock upgrade to Saez. She steps up to $25,000 but these are still non-winners of two and it's not a very tough looking group.
Bid You Adieu makes her first start since last August where she took the field gate to wire to break her maiden for a $40,000 tag against state breds in a race washed off the turf. She makes her first start here for the Kantarmaci barn that is 26% winners first off the claim. She made her debut on turf last June and was beaten two lengths in a fifth-place finish. She went for Morley and was claimed out of her debut by Englehart. A couple of quick drills on the morning tab and she finds a good spot for her return only having to face four foes.
WIN: #3 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 3 / 2,4
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 7 Md Sp Wt (4:45 ET)
#8 Mrs. Got Rocks 9-2
#9 Mercy Mercy 5-1
#6 Decorating 3-1
#3 Estill 10-1
Analysis: Mrs. Got Rocks is coming off a decent effort off a three month break in her local debut, checking in fourth after coming with a five-wide bid. The filly ran fourth in her first two starts in Florida and her speed figs have improved with each outing. She has a solid pedigree, by Lemon Drop Kid out of the stakes winner Akronism ($516,519) who has dropped four other foals to race and they have all won on turf led by stakes winner Have At It ($465,313). She has enough pedigree to handle the added ground.
Mercy Mercy invades from the west coast for the Hess barn. The filly tracked the early pace and finished up well while being carried out by a foe late in a runner up finish going nine furlongs at Santa Anita. She has landed in the money in half of her eight career starts. She is out of a Tiznow mare that has dropped one other foal to race, a turf winner. She has a long winded pedigree and Castellano picks up the call. Hess has started just one other runner at the meeting, Heavenhasmynikki winning the Vagrancy 'Cap (G3) on May 11.
WIN: #8 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 8,9 / 3,6,8,9
TRI: 8,9 / 3,6,8,9 / 2,3,6,8,9
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R4: #6 Asher the Dasher 15-1
R4: #1 Ridolfo 10-1
R5: #6 Cool Your Boots 12-1
R7: #3 Estill 10-1
R9: #7 Yes and Yes 8-1
Good luck today!