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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Thursday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
Wednesday was pretty much a washout, with the opening steeplechase race canceled and the races taken off the turf. The weather looks better for Thursday.
 
With all the scratches and the races taken off the turf, that made my report pretty much useless, but then we knocked down a nice one with our featured race of the day.
 
My second choice Special Relativity ran down my top pick Carrera Cat, paying $16.20 and completing a $2 exacta that paid $82.00. The trifecta with my third choice Tale of Veuve to Me, who was the betting favorite, returned $145.50 for $1.
 
The Bill Mott trained Hofburg is back in action in today’s ninth race, a second level optional claimers. The colt makes his first start since a sixth as the beaten favorite in the Fayette (G2) at Keeneland last fall.
 
The colt was second in the Florida Derby (G1) last March in his first start against winners, then was seventh in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and third in the Belmont Stakes (G1). He won the restricted Curlin at the Spa last summer which was contested in the slop.
 
At even money I have to lean toward attempting to beat him. The Chad Brown trained Proven Resources appears to the best option.
 
Coming up on Saturday Maximum Security will be in action in the Haskell Invitational (G1). The feature at Saratoga is the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), and there are three stakes at Del Mar including the San Diego Handicap (G2) and the San Clemente (G2).
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Saratoga Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.
 
To purchase my Saratoga Report for Thursday click here.
 
Here is the opener from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:
 
SAR Race 1 Alw $50,000s (1:00 ET)
#4 Golden Tiger   5-2
#2 Senor Jobim   7-2
#5 Smile Bryan   3-1
#6 After You   7-2
 
Analysis: Golden Tiger set the early fractions and got caught late at Churchill Downs going seven furlongs, beaten a head against $50,000 starter allowance foes. The gelding broke his maiden two back for a $50,000 tag after three tries against maiden special weight company. Rosario takes the call for the Stall barn and this gelding owns solid early and mid pace numbers.
 
Senor Jobin stalked the early pace and weakened to finish fifth last out at this level going 6 1/2 furlongs at Belmont Park. He is one of two in here that has beaten winners, taking $30,000 non-winners of two at Churchill Downs three back. He was a good second at this level two back in the slop at Churchill Downs. He is capable of better than we saw out of him last out.
 
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,5
TRI: no play
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
 
SAR Race 8 OClm $80,000N1X (5:15 ET)
#5 Shootin the Breeze   8-1
#7 Opry   7-2
#2 Spirit Animal / 2b Value Proposition   2-1
#3 Uncle Bull   5-1
 
Analysis: Shootin the Breeze tracked the early pace and made a mild late run to finish in the runner up spot last out going a mile at Belmont Park. The colt was a decent third two back in the James Murphy at Pimlico. Three back at Keeneland at this condition he ran a good third behind Demarchelier, who came back to Pennine Ride in his next start while the runner up Award Winner came back to beat Alw-1 foe sand then miss in the Kent (G3) by a neck in a runner up finish. The Motion trainee gets an extra half furlong here and picks up Johnny V. The 8-1 morning line looks more than fair. The colt is a half to a pair of stakes winners, top earner Ultra Brat ($478,299).
 
Opry stalked the early pace, came up the inside in upper stretch and had to steady in behind a foe at the eighth pole, finishing up well when getting room to run. The colt showed some ability last year, winning the With Anticipation (G3) in his first start against winners. He looks capable of moving forward of finish last effort with a better trip.
 
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 2,3,5,7
TRI: 5,7 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,5,7,8
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Saratoga
R3: #5 My Italian Rabbi   8-1
R4: #3 Channel Island   10-1
R5: #3 Power Up Paynter   8-1
R7: #9 Capt. Courageous   8-1
R7: #6 Laughing Manners   8-1
R8: #5 Shootin the Breeze   8-1
 
Good luck today!

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