Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:56 PM
BC - Mile
Welcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 1 and Saturday November 2 at Santa Anita in Arcadia, California. VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race. If you want to know what Anthony will be betting on both Breeders’ Cup days, make sure to check back on Friday and Saturday to purchase Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Picks and Plays of the Day, a look at how he’ll wager on each and every race, available EXCLUSIVELY at VegasInsider.com. To purchase Anthony Stabile Pick Packs, Click to win!
Distance: 1 mile on turf
Purse: $2 million
Date: Saturday, November 1
Time: 6:20 pm EDT
Where should I start?!?! Four horses have won multiple runnings, starting with Miesque beating the boys in 1987 and 1988. The speedy Lure won back to back runnings in 1992 and 1993 before failing to accomplish the three-peat in 1994. Da Hoss, amazingly, won it in 1996, ran once in between then re-rallied in the final strides to win it two years later in 1998.
And, of course, Goldikova won three in a row from 2008 through 2010 before finishing third in 2011. In 2012, Wise Dan capped off his Horse of the Year campaign with a popular Mile score over 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and came back to defend his Mile title in 2013. It’s worth noting that Goldikova’s trainer Freddie Head has won three and is a five-time Mile winner and the only person to win a Breeders’ Cup race as a trainer and a jockey, as he was the regular rider of Miesque.
Favorites: 12 for 35 (34%)
Shortest: $3.60 (Wise Dan, 2012)
Highest: $131.60 (Court Vision, 1986)
U.S based: 21/Foreign based: 14
The champ is here?
Uni won for the sixth time in seven starts at this distance when she powered home to take the G1 First Lady at Keeneland by over two lengths while setting the course record in the process. It’s worth noting that the colts went over a second slower an hour later in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile.
Trained by Chad Brown, Uni has won six of her last seven starts with her lone defeat coming against the boys in the G1 Fourstardave at Saratoga two back, her lone loss at the trip, when the field was stretched out by a runaway leader. While she hasn’t raced at Santa Anita, she did take the G1 Matriarch at Del Mar in her only start in SoCal.
Got Stormy has had a fantastic season, winning half of her six starts, including the Fourstardave by over two lengths against Uni and the boys two back in course record time, going the mile in 1:32. What’s more impressive is that win came a week after a tally in the De La Rose by four lengths where she just missed the course record.
Earlier this season, Got Stormy was third in the G1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland behind Rushing Fall and second in the G2 Distaff Turf Mile at Churchill on Kentucky Derby Day for trainer Mark Casse.
Bolo won the G1 Shoemaker Mile over this course in gate-to-wire fashion two starts back at almost 33-1, his first win in over two years after missing all of the 2018 season, before failing to fire in both the G2 Del Mar Mile and G2 City of Hope Mile.
Bowies Hero grinded out the Shadwell Turf Mile last out when he closed into a dawdling early pace. Earlier this season he won the G2 Eddie Read going nine furlongs at Del Mar. He’s won seven of his 15 starts at a mile and three of nine locally.
Sophomore Circus Maximus won a thrilling stretch duel to take the G1 Prix du Moulin back in September for Aidan O’Brien, his third win in six tries at the distance. Earlier this year he won the G1 St. James’s Palace during the Royal Ascot meeting.
El Tormenta gave one of Woodbines leading riders Eurico da Silva the biggest win of his career when he upset the G1 Woodbine Mile at over 44-1 in the rider’s final attempt before retirement. He’s two for three with a second in his career at this distance despite having spent most of it sprinting.
Hey Gaman ships in from Europe and has won just twice in 12 starts over the past two years with the majority of his success coming as a juvenile back in 2017. He’ll be looking for his first win at the trip in his fifth attempt.
Lord Glitters upset the G1 Queen Anne during the Royal Ascot meet at 14-1 but has failed to hit the board in three starts against G1 competition since. His lone trip stateside resulted in a sixth-place finish in the 2018 Woodbine Mile.
Lucullan returned from a 14-month layoff in July and has won three of his four starts since the break with his lone defeat coming in the Woodbine Mile when he was disqualified from third for drifting in deep stretch. Last out he defeated dual G1 winner Catholic Boy in the G2 Knickerbocker going nine furlongs at Belmont just 19 days prior to this.
Space Traveller stormed home to win a G2 in Ireland last out, his second win from seven starts this season in his first ever start at a mile, He’s faced older just three times in his career.
Suedois flew home to get the show-dough in the Shadwell last out, a race he won when he shipped over in 2017 for the first time. Fourth in this behind World Approval that year, he’s won just once in 13 starts in Europe since. He picks up an American-based rider, Javier Castellano, for the first time.
Trais Fluors cuts back to this trip off of a pair of third place finishes in G3 events in France going 10 furlongs. He’s winless in six starts since taking his fiver-year-old debut back in March and has won just twice in his 14 starts over the past two seasons.
True Valour took the G3 Thunder Road from off the pace before going to the sidelines for eight months. He returned a little less than a month ago to take the City of Hope with a similar late rally.
Without Parole makes his U.S. debut and first start for Chad Brown seeking his first win since taking the 2018 St. James’s Palace. After starting his career with four consecutive victories, he’s lost his last five. This will be his first start in over five months.
Caribou Club won his last pair at Mountaineer and Laurel and owns two wins over this course while Next Shares won the 2018 Shadwell. Both are on the AE list.
If I’m Right…
This isn’t the toughest Mile we’ve ever seen and that’s compounded by the fact that the Euro contingent looks extremely average.
Without Parole is making his first start for Chad Brown in the B.C. Mile? That’s enough reason for me to try him at 20-1.
Anthony “the Big A” Stabile can be heard regularly on the Horse Racing Radio Network from 3-6:00 p.m. ETon Wednesday and 3-7:00 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday. Tune in on Sirius 219, XM 201 or streaming live at horseracingradio.net. He also is a contributor on NYRA-TV as the co-host of Talking Horses and a backup racetrack announcer. Follow him on Twitter @TheBigAStabile