Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:55 PM
At the Gate - Saturday
The Road to the Kentucky Derby has bene kind to us so far in 2020. We had Gold Street as our top pick in yesterday’s Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park and the Steve Asmussen trainee took the field gate to wire and returned $22.80.
The price was double his 5-1 morning line which I thought was surprising. We missed out on the exacta which paid a hefty $90.80.
Last Saturday in the Lecomte our top pick Enforceable got the job done at $15.60, bet down from a 15-1 morning line.
Today we head off to Gulfstream Park where we have nine stakes on the 12-race card highlighted by the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1).
The race lost the morning line favorite Omaha Beach (an ankle issue) and second choice Spun to Run (a rash), but there is still a field of 10 and it is a wide open affair.
A race that is not getting as much attention is the $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1). A full field of 12 will head to the gate in another really good betting race.
The Chad Brown trained Without Parole looks like a major threat. The five-year-old came off a five-month layoff when making his U.S. debut, a solid third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1).
The world traveling mare Magic Wand makes her fourth trip to the U.S. to take on the boys. The Aiden O’Brien trainee raced in the U.S., Dubai, Great Britain, Ireland, Australia and Hong Kong last year.
She only won one of her dozen starts but racked up $3.4 million in earnings.
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park.
To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .
To purchase my Gulfstream Park Report for Pegasus World Cup Day click here .
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 2 Clm $10,000 (12:57 ET)
#9 Poshky 6-1
#1 Business Cycle 9-2
#6 Too Fast to Pass 3-1
#8 Captain Frost 4-1
Analysis: Poshky tracked the early pace and weakened to finish fourth last out against $16,000 foes and drops into a softer spot here tagged for $10,000. Two back this guy pressed the early pace and finished gamely to beat $12,500 claimers at Philly going nine furlongs over a wet track. The gelding has won 5 of his 15 starts on off tracks and figures to get another one today. He is in a capable Philly barn and looks well spotted here.
Business Cycle was the beaten favorite in his last two starts going from Atras to Falcone and now Gullo who is 17% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. Three back this guy beat $14,000 non-winners of three in a sharp effort over a wet track at Belmont Park. He is better than he showed last out in the slop and looking for him to bounce back her at what should be a fair price.
WIN: #9 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,9 / 1,6,8,9
TRI: 1,9 / 1,6,8,9 / 1,4,6,8,9
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The Jazil (3:55 ET)
#5 Stan the Man 3-1
#1 Mr. Buff 2-1
#2 Sir Winston 5-2
#7 Leitone 5-1
Analysis: Stan the Man tracked the early pace and finished gamely to prevail by a neck in the Queen's County last out at nine furlongs which was off a 6 1/2-month layoff. This guy has landed in the exacta in all five of his trips over wet tracks in his career including a tough neck loss three back in the Westchester (G3) at Belmont Park. He should move forwards in his second start off the bench for the Terranova barn that hits at a 19% clip second off the bench.
Mr. Buff won the state bred Alex M. Robb last out by 7 1`2 lengths which was his sixth win in 11 career starts over the Big A main track. He has won 8 of his 12 starts at nine furlongs and has handled a wet track. He owns a solid pace prole throughout and with the rail draw that might force Junior's hand to send him. There are a couple of other quick foes in here so the early pace could be contested. A logical threat but among the top three here likely is going to be the lightest price.
WIN: #5 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,2,5,7
TRI: 1,5 / 1,2,5,7 / 1,2,4,5,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 12 The Pegasus World Cup Inv. G1 (5:34 ET)
#1 True Timber 15-1
#2 Tax 8-1
#10 Mucho Gusto 9-2
#6 Higher Power 6-1
Analysis: True Timber was sent off at 73-1 in this race last year which was contested in the slop and he was not a threat in a seventh-place finish. He then tried Dubai where he failed to threaten in the Godolphin Mile (G1) where he was ninth. Since coming back to the U.S. and freshened six months he has run three credible races. He was third in the Kelso 'Cap (G2) off the bench and then ran third in the Bold Ruler 'Cap (G3) and Cigar Mile (G1), beaten both times by Maximum Security. He is 0 for 3 at nine furlongs but has the pedigree to handle the ground and he comes in here with decent numbers and looks capable of moving forward off his last. He was seventh early in the Cigar Mile and came with a six wide run to make a mild late rally over a racing strip that was kind to inside speed. There is plenty of speed in here and Bravo can be in the mix early or this guy looks capable of sitting off the pace. He looks like the value of the race.
Tax earned a career top speed fig in a runner up finish in the Discovery (G3) last out at Aqueduct going nine furlongs. He was better than nine lengths clear of the rest of the field. That was off a three-month break, his first start since a seventh in the Travers (G1) last summer at the Spa. He won the Jim Dandy (G2) three back at today's distance after his fourth in the Belmont Stakes (G1). He looks like one in the field that would benefit form a fast pace and with Ortiz up figures to be sitting in the second flight.
Mucho Gusto returns off a four-month break here for the Baffert barn. he won three of his seven starts as a three-year-old, winning the Affirmed (G3) and running a good second in the Haskell (G1) being Maximum Security. The colt has been working quickly in the mornings at Santa Anita for his return. The barn is 35% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. He looks ready to go but with the two scratches this guy may end up too short a price.
WIN: #1 to win at 6-1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,6,10
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,6,10 / 1,2,3,6,10
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R1: #3 Zuzudini 15-1
R3: #5 Frosted Ice 8-1
R4: #8 Mad Munnys 15-1
R7: #4 Beachside 8-1
R7: #8 Tiergan 8-1
R9: #4 Keypit 8-1
R9: #11 Queen Kimberly 10-1
Good luck today!