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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Sunday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
We missed both of the big races at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, but we have an opportunity to make a ton more money with the mandatory payout in the Jackpot Pick 6 on Sunday.
 
Zulu Alpha got a dream trip up the rail in the stretch to pull off the upset in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1). He was my fourth choice, with the globetrotting mare Magic Wand, who was my third choice, completing the $2 exacta paying $176.60.
 
In the main event, the $3 million Pegasus World Cup (G1) my top pick True Timber was sent off at odds of 18-1, stalked the pace from mid pack and had no punch left late, tiring to finish a disappointing eighth.
 
The race was won by my third choice Mucho Gusto, who really looked good drawing clear to win by 4 ½ lengths. Mr. Freeze, who was sent off at 7-1 and who I did not like much at all completed a $2 exacta that returned $78.20.
 
For the 41st straight racing day the Jackpot 6 was not solved at Gulfstream Park, and there is a $3.6 million carryover. There is a mandatory payout and it is estimated the pool could rise to between $12 to $15 million.
 
The Rainbow 6 jackpot pool is only paid out when there is a single unique ticket sold with all six winners. On days when there is no unique ticket, 70% of that day’s pool goes back to those bettors holding tickets with the most winners, while 30% is carried over to the jackpot pool.
 
However, on mandatory payout days, the entire Rainbow 6 jackpot pool is paid out to those holding tickets with the most winners.
 
I have been a vocal critic of Jackpot bets, which I think are terrible for the game. The takeout is high, and there are far too many horseplayers chasing a bet that is very difficult to hit for the entire pool.
 
The only day I consider playing is on a mandatory payout day like we have on Sunday. I have included all six races of the sequence in today’s Best Plays Report. 
 
My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my 10 strongest plays from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park.
 
To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here.
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday which will include all of the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
 
AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:50 ET)
#3 Spice Road   8-5
#2 Fast Break   1-1
#1 Flying Curlin / 1a Conquistador   9-2
#4 Dancers for Token   12-1
 
Analysis: Spice Road dueled for the early lead while in the 2-3 path and weakened to finish third last out going a mile as the chalk. The runner up Kid Bourbon came back to graduate in his next outing on Dec. 5 and missed beating Alw-1 foes in his most recent outing by a neck. Our top pick crossed the wire first in the mud last June but was DQ'd for interference in deep stretch. The blinkers come off as he has been gelded. He is out of a A.P. Indy mare that has dropped three winners including stakes winner Avery Island ($365,832).
 
Fast Break has burned some cash, the beaten favorite in each of his three starts for the Servis barn. Last out at a mile over a wet track he bobbled and was bumped coming out of the gate, pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fourth. The racing strip was kinder to horses in the outer paths that day. Two back this guy was beaten just a nose in a tough beat while better than seven lengths clear of the rest of the field. Looks as if the cut back to seven furlongs should suit this guy. The barn is 26% winners moving runners from route to sprint. The $400,000 purchase is out of a Zensational mare that has dropped one other foals to race, no winners to date. This guy is bred to handle a wet track and we may still see some moisture in the surface today.
 
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 1,2,3
TRI: no play
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
 
AQU Race 7 The Ruthless (3:53 ET)
#2 Panthera Onca   7-2
#1 Love of My Heart   5-2
#9 Miss Marissa   3-1
#5 Cruise and Danze   9-2
 
Analysis: Panthera Onca caught a sloppy track last out at Laurel Park against Alw-1 optional claimers where she stalked the early pace and came up the inside with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot at seven furlongs. She graduated in her debut at Penn at six furlongs and then was fourth going a mile in her first start against winners. She now lands with the Cox barn that is 23% winners with newcomers to the barn, taking over form another sharp barn in Kreiser. This filly is out of the stakes winner Motto Vita ($576,997) who has dropped four other winners and two are stakes winners, top earner Jaguar Paw ($304,242). She would not mind if the track is still wet and owns a solid pace profile throughout. She picks up Lezcano who has been hot at the meeting and the 7-2 morning line looks fair.
 
Love of My Heart made her first two starts on turf and graduated last out in her first trip on the main track here. She pressed the early pace and drew clear late. The effort was flattered with both the runner up and third place finisher coming back to graduate in their next starts. The Casse trainee looks as if she still has some upside. The barn sticks with the bug and this gal has a solid off track pedigree if the track is still wet after yesterday's rains.
 
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,5,9
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,5,9 / 1,2,4,5,9
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
 
GP Race 10 OClm $62,600C (5:00 ET)
#7 Hay Dakota   7-2
#2 Sayyaaf   5-2
#9 Sombeyay   9-2
#5 Aquaphobia   10-1
 
Analysis: Hay Dakota was outrun early after bobbling coming out of the gate and was not a threat in a ninth-place finish last out. Three runners came out of that race to win next out including Ninety One Assault who won the Louisiana Turf at Fair Grounds and Instilled Regard who won the Ft Lauderdale (G2). Two back in the gelding's first start for Servis he beat Alw-2 optional claimers, his eighth career win on turf. He fits well here as he returns off a 2 1/2-month freshening.
 
Sayyaaf steps up a notch in class after a razor sharp gate to wire win versus Alw-1 foes in his first start at a mile. He graduated at 5 1/2 furlongs at the Spa last summer. He makes his third start of his current form cycle for the Brown barn and the 7 1/2-furlong distance looks like a good fit for him here. Likely to get bet down from his 5-2 morning line.
 
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 2,5,7,9
TRI: 2,7 / 2,5,7,9 / 2,3,5,7,9
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Aqueduct
R1: #4 Dancers for Token   12-1
R2: #4 World Riot   12-1
R3: #8 Fifty Eight O G   8-1
R4: #1 Appreciate   10-1
R8: #2 Lorcan   12-1
 
Good luck today!

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