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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Sunday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
I had a feeling Independence Hall was going to be an underlay in the Sam F. Davis (G3) and I was right as the colt had to settle for the runner up spot at 3-5, suffering his first career loss.
 
My top choice Ajaaweed fell far behind the field and rallied to finish third while my second choice Sole Volante pulled off the upset, returning $13.60. We kept our good fortune going in Road to the Kentucky Derby points races, hitting the exacta for $28.40 and the trifecta for $30.90.
 
However, it was not a good day for us at Tampa. I did have Wanderlust as my second choice in the fifth race, returning $27.40, but we just got beat for the exacta. The I whiffed completely on the first three stakes on the card.
 
I know I am very critical of jackpot bets, but there is a mandatory payout in the Empire 6 at Aqueduct today. The NYRA announced there would be a mandatory payout every two weeks on the wager.
 
There is a $363,535 carryover going into Sunday, so with the free money up for grabs today might be a good day to dip into the pool.
 
My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park.
 
To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here.
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday which will include all of the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
 
AQU Race 1 Md $40,000 (1:00 ET)
#8 Try'n Smart'n Up   4-1
#3 Brown Eyed Boy   7-5
#2 Golconda   3-1
#7 Bank Gala   7-2
 
Analysis: Try'n Smart'n Up tracked the early pace, shied in and ended up dumping the jock and clipping heels with a foe on the backstretch last out. The barn brings him right back quickly here and this guy ran second in his two previous outings at Finger Lakes. He steps up to $40,000 but these are not really any tougher than he faces last out. He is out of a Regal Classic mare that has dropped three winners and two of them won their debuts. He should end up a fair price in this spot.
 
Brown Eyed Boy drops back in for a tag after tracking the early pace and weakening to finish fifth last out at Philly going six furlongs against maiden special weight company. The winner Irish Roar came back to beat Alw-2L foes at Charles Town in his next outing on Feb. 6. Two back the DeMasi trainee had the lead heading for home but weakened to finish third in the slop going a mile here in a race taken off the turf. She stretches back out and has the pedigree to handle the distance. The barn is 28% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.
 
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 3,8 / 2,3,7,8
TRI: 3,8 / 2,3,7,8 / 1,2,3,7,8
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park
 
GP Race 6 Md Sp Wt (3:04 ET)
#5 Sconset   3-1
#7 Fashion Babe   8-5
#1 Prairie Wings   7-2
#6 American Model   10-1
 
Analysis: Sconset debuts for the Colebrook barn that is 7% winners (with a +ROI) with fir time starters. This filly was a $900,000 Keeneland purchase, by Tapit out of a Smart Strike mare that has dropped one winner, Strike At Dawn ($60,502) who broke her maiden in her second career start and in her most recent start was fourth in the Red Carpet (G3) last November at Del Mar. A bullet gate drill at Palm Meadows last month highlights a good looking work tab.
 
Fashion Babe stalked the early pace and finished up well for the runner up spot while no match for an 8 1/4 length winner Velvet Crush who ash not run back. Three back this Servis trainee was beaten just a neck at Monmouth Park in her second career start. She is by Curlin out of a stakes placed Touch Gold mare. The beaten chalk in her last three starts, she catches a softer field here but is going to be a light price again here.
 
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 1,5,6,7
TRI: 5,7 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,4,5,6,7
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
 
AQU Race 8 The Biogio's Rose (4:25 ET)
#6 More Mischief   5-1
#7 Newly Minted   8-5
#2 Our Super Nova   3-1
#5 Espresso Shot   12-1
 
Analysis: More Mischief passed her first test at a mile, trouncing state bred Alw-2 optional claimers by 7 3/4 lengths and earning a career top speed fig. She bounced back off an eighth two back in the state bred Iroquois going 6 1/2 furlongs. Her last came off nearly a three-month beak and she looks like she is sitting on a better one here for the Brown barn that has been live at the meeting, winning at a 33% clip.
 
Newly Minted took the field gate to wire to beat open Alw-1 company by 7 1/4 lengths and earning a career top. She is a three-time stakes winner versus state breds from 6 1/2 to nine furlongs. He other trip at a one turn mile came three back where she was fourth in the state bred Empire Classic as the beaten chalk. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and is the obvious one to beat but is going to end up a light price.
 
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 2,5,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 2,5,6,7 / 1,2,5,6,7
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Aqueduct
R3: #2 Fair Lassie   10-1
R5: 32 Vincento   8-1
R6: #2 Brimstone   15-1
R8: #5 Espresso Shot   12-1
R9: #10 A d’Oro   10-1
 
Good luck today!

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