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Horse Racing

Horse Racing Best Bets At the Gate – Friday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
There is a break in the action this weekend on the Road to the Kentucky Derby with no points races, and the only race that might be considered a prep race did not fill.
 
The $100,000 Hutcheson at seven furlongs occasionally produce a few Derby hopefuls but there was not much interest. The race may be brought back next Sunday according to Gulfstream Park.
 
There are only two graded stakes on Saturday—the $100,000 World of Trouble Sprint (G3) at Gulfstream Park and the $200,000 Buena Vista (G2) at Santa Anita.
 
The feature tomorrow at Aqueduct is the $100,000 Haynesfield for New York breds, a field of six that will go one mile on the main track.
 
Mr. Buff is the 4-5 morning line favorite and is back with state breds after winning the Jazil at Aqueduct on Jan. 25 in his last outing. The John Kimmel trainee has won seven of his 12 starts over the Big A main track.
 
His main rival is the defending champ Honor Up (4-1), who will be making his second start off the layoff for trainer Michelle Nevin. The five-year-old won last year’s Haynesfield by a nose over Syndergaard.
 
Syndergaard (3-1) returns for the John Terranova barn. The six-year-old makes his first start since running fourth in the state bred Commentator last May. He is best known for being named after Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard and for running second in the 2016 Champagne (G1).
 
I will have my selections and analysis for the race in tomorrow’s column.
 
To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Friday click here .
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday which will include all of the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
 
AQU Race 1 Md $25,000 (1:20 ET)
#6 Da Berg   5-2
#7 The Joke's On You   3-5
#2 Go With Honor   10-1
#1 Plebe   9-2
 
Analysis: Da Berg chased the early pace and could not get to the winner in the stretch who went gate to wire over an inside speed favoring racing strip. The gelding was stretching out from a sprint and it resulted in the best finish in his nine race career. He gets a jock upgrade here from the capable bug to Cancel and catches a pretty slow group. He is out of a Summer Squall mare that ash dropped five other foals to race with four winners. He looks capable of moving forward off his last effort.
 
The Joke's On You tracked the early pace while saving ground and weakened to finish fourth last out for this tag. he was claimed out of the race by the Rice barn that is 24% winners first off the claim. The blinkers come off as he tries a mile for the first time. He has plenty of pedigree to go long, by Distorted Humor out of an A.P. Indy mare that has dropped three winners. Rice is 28% winners (with a +ROI moving runners from sprint to route. The obvious one to beat here but is going to be a short price.
 
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 1,2,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 1,2,6,7 / 1,2,5,6,7
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
 
AQU Race 7 OClm $80,000N1X (4:25 ET)
#1 Love of My Heart   7-2
#5 Fierce Lady   2-1
#6 Autonomous   5-2
#4 Leaveuwithasmile   5-1
 
Analysis: Love of My Heart faces winners for the first time here after a smart maiden win last out here in her third career start and first o dirt. She was fourth and seventh in two trips on turf to start her career. Last out on the cut back from a route she pressed the early pace and drew clear late to win by 3 3/4 lengths. The runner up and third place finisher both came back to graduate in their next starts. By Colonel John out of a A.P. Indy mare she seems bitter suited to dirt and looks as if she still has some upside. Casse is having a strong meeting hitting at a 28% clip and I like the jock switch from the bug to Davis.
 
Fierce Lady set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth last out in the state bred Franklin Square off a four-month break. It was her worst finish in five starts that include a win in the state bred Seeking the Ante and a tough nose loss in the Stillwater four back last summer at the Spa in her first start against winners. Blinkers go on this gal who was the beaten chalk in three of her last four starts and is likely going to be south of her 2-1 morning line here.
 
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,4,5,6
TRI: 1,5 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,2,4,5,6
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Aqueduct
R1: #2 Go With Honor   10-1
R4: #4 Empirita   8-1
R5: #6 Wild Banker   8-1
R6: #2 Mills   8-1
 
Good luck today!

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