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Horse Racing

Saturday’s Horse Racing Picks and Analysis – Tampa Bay Derby, Gotham, San Felipe

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read

Saturday's Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
2020 Kentucky Derby Prep Race Predictions

TAMPA BAY DERBY (Grade 2)

Date: Saturday, March 7, 2020
Post Time: 5:32 p.m. ET
Race #: 11 Distance: Dirt, 1 1/16 miles (8 1/2 furlongs)
Qualification: Three-year-olds
Purse: $400,000
Track: Tampa Bay Downs
Location: Tampa, Florida

TAMPA BAY DERBY
Handicapping Analysis

(Post-Horse-Morning Line Odds)

1 – Texas Swing (12-1) Shipped in from Gulfstream to break his maiden over course when stretching out for second start. Johnny V opts for another Pletcher runner.

2 – Spa City (10-1) Broke his maiden in third try, first around two turns at Gulfstream and cuts back a half-furlong. Picks up one of the perennial leading riders on the circuit in Centeno.

3 – Relentless Dancer (12-1) Faded to fourth after chasing pace in Holy Hull of a three-plus month layoff. Won two of three, including a Louisiana-bred stakes as a juvenile.

4 – Chance It (5-2) Scratched out of Fountain of Youth after drawing post 12 last weekend. Has won four of six, including a Florida-bred stakes at this trip to conclude 2019 then fought back to take the Mucho Macho Man in his first start of this season three months later.

5 – Market Analysis (8-1) Got up in final strides as the 6-5 favorite to win at first asking going seven furlongs. Son of Honor Code has been training well at Pletcher winter base Palm Beach Downs for this and Johnny V stays here.

6 – Mo Mosa (30-1) Ships in from Turfway Park off of three synthetic course starts, the last resulting in a maiden win when stretching out and adding blinkers.

7 – Sole Volante (2-1) Won his first two starts at big prices on the turf before finishing well behind Chance It two back. Came from far back to run past the heavy favorite to win the Sam F. Davis over this course and at this trip most recently. Connections teamed up to win Fountain of Youth.

8 – Letmeno (12-1) Broke his maiden on debut at Ellis Park last summer but is winless in three starts since, including an allowance/optional claimer behind top Pletcher prospect Gouverneur Morris, over this course.

9 – Unrighteous (20-1) Adds blinkers after finishing second to Spa City last out. Last of three trained by Pletcher appears in tough.

10 – Bye Bye Melvin (20-1) Won his last two starts on grass before starting his career with three losses. Lone dirt start was in an off-the-turf heat at Keeneland where he finished third in the slop.

11 – King Guillermo (15-1) Broke his maiden on turf two back before a third-place finish behind Sole Volante in the Pulpit on turf at Gulfstream. Finished sixth in lone dirt start, his career debut, sprinting.

12 – Tons of Gold (30-1) Adds blinkers for his ninth start while seeking his first win.

TAMPA BAY DERBY
Predictions - If I had $100

$40 Win on 5
$10 Exacta Box 1-5-7

GOTHAM (Grade 3)

Date: Saturday, March 7, 2020
Post Time: 5:42 p.m. ET
Race #: 10 Distance: Dirt, 1 mile
Qualification: Three-year-olds
Purse: $400,000
Track: Aqueduct Racetrack
Location: Queens, New York

GOTHAM
Handicapping Analysis

(Post-Horse-Morning Line Odds)

1 – Celtic Striker (30-1) Has won two of four career tries, including first with blinkers last out. Must improve of fourth place finish in Jerome two back, his lone stakes try.

2 – Informative (15-1) Finally broke his maiden in his eighth try last out over the course at this distance. Finished second and fourth, respectively, in a pair of stakes to close out 2019.

3 – War Stopper (5-1) Crushed when adding blinkers last out nearly two months ago over the course at the distance. Other dirt start two back resulted in multiple next-out winners, including Risen Star winner Modernist.

4 – Attachment Rate (9-2) Romped in slop at Gulfstream most recently when stretching out to a mile. Just missed in first start of year off of a seven-month break.

5 – Necker Island (12-1) Won last two starts of 2019, both at Churchill Downs, before finishing a long way behind likely favorite in here last out in Swale at Gulfstream.

6 – Mischievous Alex (3-1) Won last pair by daylight going seven furlongs, including Swale off of a near three-month break, since adding blinkers. Gets distance acid test in here and fifth different rider in seventh start.

7 – Sixto (8-1) Posted upset win at 13-1 in debut and gets rider switch to a red-hot Cancel who is battling for top jock honors at Big A. Pedigree suggests stretch out from six furlongs to a mile shouldn’t be an issue.

8 – Montauk Traffic (6-1) Had closed ground to win last two starts over course after being eased in debut over a sloppy course at Laurel. Got a great setup to take Winkfield most recently and makes his first start beyond seven panels.

9 – Flap Jack (30-1) Makes first start in six months having broken his maiden over synthetic course at Arlington in a stakes last out. Lone dirt start was in debut and he’s been training well at Fair Grounds.

10 – Untitled (4-1) Cuts back after setting pace in the Gouverneur Morris allowance contest at Tampa. Finished fourth in Swale as 7-5 favorite after breaking maiden by 11 lengths in his debut.

11 – First Deputy (30-1) Lost first five starts then won last two, all against fellow NY breds. Pedigree says he’ll run all day bit both wins came going six furlongs.

GOTHAM
Predictions - If I had $100

$40 Win on 3
$10 Exacta Box 3 with 5,6,7

SAN FELIPE (Grade 2)

Date: Saturday, March 7, 2020
Post Time: 6:01 p.m. ET
Race #: 8 Distance: Dirt, 1 1/16 miles
Qualification: Three-year-olds
Purse: $400,000
Track: Santa Anita Park
Location: Queens, New York

(Post-Horse-Morning Line Odds)

SAN FELIPE
Handicapping Analysis

1 – Fort McHenry (20-1) Sheds blinkers for first start in new barn since shipping in from east coast. Won just once in five tries and was offered for $50K tag last out at Aqueduct when third.

2 – Honor A.P. (4-1) Galloped home by over five lengths in second career try and first around two turns when last seen over four months ago. Will need to fire a big shot off of the bench Zenyatta’s trainer/jockey combo.

Trainer Bob Baffert will look to cash a win in the San Felipe with Authentic as a 6/5 morning-line choice.
Trainer Bob Baffert will look to cash a win in the San Felipe with Authentic as a 6/5 morning-line choice. (AP)
3 – Wrecking Crew (12-1) Finished third in B.C. Juvenile at 39-1 before finishing a long way last in Los Alamitos Futurity in last start back in December.

4 – Authentic (6-5) Looks to stay perfect for Baffert in his third start having won his debut sprinting before taking Sham by almost eight lengths last out.

5 – Thousand Words (9-5) Has won all three starts in gutsy fashion, duking it out through the stretch to prevail each time. Los Al Futurity/Bob Lewis winner figures to be second choice to his less accomplished stablemate.

6 – Storm the Court (5-1) Upset winner of the B.C. Juvenile at 45-1/2YO Eclipse winner finished non-threatening fourth in seven-furlong San Vicente last out and gets a new rider in Rosario as regular rider Prat opts for Thousand Words.

7 – Swagsational (50-1) Lost first seven starts by a combined by over 130 lengths before taking last three at Turf Paradise.

SAN FELIPE
Predictions - If I had $100

$100 Win on 2

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