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Horse Racing

Horse Racing Best Bets, Odds – Saturday’s Picks for NYRA, Tampa and the San Felipe

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
9 minute read
Things are heating up with 16 Road to the Kentucky Derby races on tap over the next month, three this afternoon.  Each of the three Derby preps are worth 50-20-10-5 pints toward entry into the Kentucky Derby (G1).
 
Close to home we have the $300,000 Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct which drew a competitive field of 11 that will go a one-turn mile. The race serves as a local prep for the $750,000 Wood Memorial (G2) next month as well as stamping the winner a ticket to Louisville.
 
Mischievous Alex is the 3-1 morning line for the Jason Servis barn. The colt won the Swale (G3) going seven furlongs at Gulfstream Park last out.
 
At Tampa Bay Downs it is the marquee event of their meeting, the $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) which drew a field of 12 that will go 1 1/16 miles.
 
Sole Volante is the 2-1 morning line favorite off a very impressive score in the Sam F. Davis (G3) last out over the Tampa Bay Downs main track. He looks like a legit candidate to be a major player on the first Saturday of May.
 
The $400,000 San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita of course features a few Bob Baffert runners. The trainer sends out 6-5 morning line favorite Authentic and 9-5 second choice Thousand Words. Among their foes is last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Storm the Court and Honor A.P. who makes his stakes debut.
 
While the three Derby preps take center stage, there is plenty of other great action through the country today. There are two Grade 1 races at Santa Anita—the $400,000 Frank E. Kilroe and the $600,000 Santa Anita Handicap.
 
There are three supporting stakes on the Aqueduct card and at Tampa Bay four stakes in addition to the Tampa Bay Derby.
 
Some of the stakes action will be nationally televised on America’s Day at the Races from 5:30-7:00 ET on FS2 and will also air from 5:30-6:30 ET on MSG+.
 
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 12 strongest plays from Aqueduct, Tampa Bay Downs and Santa Anita.
 
To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday which will include all of the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
 
AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:30 ET)
#1 Cousin Andrew   9-5
#5 Semper Fi   8-1
#2 Continuation   2-1
#4 Striking Speed   4-1
 
Analysis: Cousin Andrew stretches out to a mile after a promising debut for the Chad Brown barn. The colt was sent off at 9-2 in his debut on a five horse field, making a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot over a racing strip that was splaying to inside speed. The third and fifth place finishers in the race both graduated next out. This guy will appreciate the stretch out to a mile. he is by Into Mischief out of an Aldebaran mare that has dropped two other foals to race, both winners. The Brown barn is 37% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.
 
Semper Fi made his debut at Tampa Bay Downs going 6 1/2 furlongs where he made a good late rally to finish third, beaten 3/4 of a length for the top spot. The Pletcher trainee was sent off as the 2-1 favorite in a 12-horse field. He is bred to go longer, by Carpe Diem out of the stakes winner Charlie Papa ($233,908) who has dropped three foals to race with two winners and they have both won routes. Pletcher is 24% winners with second out maidens. His speed fig earned in his debut is coming up light but he should move forward with a race under his belt.
 
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,2,4,5
TRI: 1,5 / 1,2,4,5 / 1,2,4,5,7
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Tampa Bay Downs:
 
TAM Race 10 The Florida Oaks G3 (4:55 ET)
#1 Ivyetsu   6-1
#6 Walk In Marrakesh   3-1
#2 New York Groove   7-2
#8 Outburst   8-1
Analysis: Ivyetsu put in a good effort tin her turf debut last out in the Sweet Chant (G3) at Gulfstream Park. The filly came with a good late rally to finish third while beaten just 3/4 of a length for the top spot. The winner Cheermeister came back to win the Herecomesthebride (G3) in her next outing. She is bred to like grass, by Tapit out of a Kingmambo mare that has dropped one other foal to race, a turf winner. he should move forward for the Arnold barn and picks up Geroux.
 
Walk In Marrakesh dueled for the early lead and battled on gamely in the stretch getting nailed at the wire to miss by just a nose in the Natalma (G1) at Woodbine over yielding ground. She was third in a Group 3 in her previous outing at Deauville. She adds lasix here and I like the jock switch from my least favorite jockey of all time Spencer to Bravo. The Correas barn is having a solid meeting hitting at a 23% clip but is showing just a 1 for 30 mark with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. She has been working over the main track here.
 
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,2,6,8
TRI: 1,6 / 1,2,6,8 / 1,2,6,8,12
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
 
AQU Race 9 The Busher Inv. (5:14 ET)
#4 Maedean   5-2
#1 Mo City   6-1
#5 Lake Avenue   1-1
#6 Water White   8-1
 
Analysis: Maedean makes her first start since a runner up finish behind Lake Avenue in the Demoiseille (G2) here last December at nine furlongs. The filly stalked the early pace, came with a four wide bid and finished up well, unable to catch the loose on the lead gate to wire winner. The racing surface was kind to inside speed that day. The Hennig trainee broke her maiden at a mile and won the Tempted in her first start against winners at the same distance. She looks capable of turning the tables here and is going to offer a bit better price as well.
 
Mo City could break up a chalky exacta. The filly stretches out off a neck loss in the Gasparilla at Tampa Bay Downs at seven furlongs. She made a good late rally in that outing to just miss in a four way photo. She has the pedigree to go longer, by Uncle Mo out of a stakes placed Carson City mare that has dropped five other winners and two are stakes winners, top earner Dixie City ($231,980) who was a Grade 2 winner at nine furlongs. She has posted four quick works at Tampa since her last outing and the 6-1 morning line looks generous.
 
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,5,6
TRI: 1,4 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,4,5,6,7
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
 
SA Race 8 The San Felipe G2 (3:01 PT)
#2 Honor A.P.   4-1
#4 Authentic   6-5
#5 Thousand Words   9-5
#3 Wrecking Crew   12-1
 
Analysis: Honor A.P. makes his first start since last October when he graduated by 5 1/4 lengths in an impressive effort. He faces not one but two Baffert runners in here but among the trio this guy is going to be the best price. The $850,000 purchase is out of the stakes winner Hollywood Story ($1.17 million) who has dropped six other winners including stakes winner Miss Hollywood ($151,430). The Shirreffs barn is 36% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. Solid looking works on the morning tab for his return.
 
Authentic took the field gate to wire and drew off to win the Sham (G3) last out by nearly eight lengths last out in his first start against winners. The runner up Azul Coast who won the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields in his next outing. Baffert has won this race a record six times and this guy looks as if he still has plenty of upside.
 
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,3,4,5
TRI: 2,4 / 2,3,4,5 / 2,3,4,5,6
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Aqueduct
R1: #5 Sewper Fi   8-1
R2: #8 Fair Lassie   12-1
R2: #5 Lookbothways   8-1
R2: #2 Lem Me Have It   10-1
R3: #9 Prince of New York   8-1
R5: #7 Leap to Glory   8-1
R6: #6 Painite   15-1
R8: #1 Mr. Dougie Fresh   10-1
R8: #6 Bon Raison   12-1
R9: #6 Water White   8-1
R10: #5 Necker Island   12-1
 
Good luck today!

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